FDA FDA's leaked guidance for PMTAs confirm deeming reg would ban >99.9% of nicotine vapor products

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Jman8

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Anyway, I'm not sure if they have a grasp of all the factors involved here. Like in order to buy black market nic on the dark web there has to be someone manufacturing nic. The nic I buy today is really pure and has analysis results to prove it. 5 years from now if you buy nic from Captain Shady on Silk Road 7.0 for a handful of bitcoins you will have no idea what's really in the bottle.

And the guy selling juice from the back of a car behind Subway will have bought his ingredients from Captain Shady.

So, you think the only people stocking up right now are DIY'ers? I'm guessing whichever DIY'er currently has the most nic, the lowest (future) fully intending black market operative has 10 times that amount.
 
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Jman8

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IF the tobacco companies get a product that is grandfathered - still in question, imo, then some collusion might be indicated. If they happen to be the only ones with enough money to apply for and get new products approved - I don't think that "proves" collusion, but will be a 'by-product' (perhaps even an unwanted one on the part of the FDA) of the deeming and decimating the rest of the ecig industry.

Collusion to me is all the (liberal) universities get unlimited funds to study (and find out what's wrong with) eCigs, and help the FDA with the (ahem, cough cough) regulatory science.
 

Rossum

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So, you think the only people stocking up right now are DIY'ers? I'm guessing whichever DIY'er currently has the most nic, the lowest (future) fully intending black market operative has 10 times that amount.
Or just the knowledge and proven ability to extract nic / WTA from tobacco. ;)
 

zoiDman

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Or just the knowledge and proven ability to extract nic / WTA from tobacco. ;)

That would Reduce the Freezer Space needed by All those Black Market "Operatives".

That is, if Black Market Operatives put Nicotine Base in Freezers. And don't just have it Piled Up outdoors with a Tarp over it.

;)
 

Jman8

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Believe it or not, black market relies on repeat customers as well. They are certainly capable of distributing poor quality, and just as likely to be not in business very long.

But if any business right now is making a killing, black market vendor would do just as well, or arguably better, and know quality matters as much now as it ever will.

Me as non DIY'er could make case that by buying fresh product from currently legal vendors, I'm likely getting best quality available and better than any DIY'er. Though I'm thinking a DIY'er would find that debatable.
 

Kent C

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Stock play?

Today, there is a variety of freezer brands available to the general consumer, ranging from budget to top-of-the-line models. Out of these many brands, there are three main manufacturers who build freezers. They are Frigidaire, W.C. Wood's and Haier.
 
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MacTechVpr

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IF the tobacco companies get a product that is grandfathered - still in question, imo, then some collusion might be indicated. If they happen to be the only ones with enough money to apply for and get new products approved - I don't think that "proves" collusion, but will be a 'by-product' (perhaps even an unwanted one on the part of the FDA) of the deeming and decimating the rest of the ecig industry.

If the objective is transition (tobacco>vaping) then its a foregone conclusion they will be selectively approved and own it…just as the Tb industry itself has projected to its stockholders. Don't see a reason to doubt them (at least their intentions). See where you're coming from on juices for example. But I refer to the selective ban of sale of nic base as you thought before. This would draw more legal and public attention.

Night all and g'luck.

:)
 

Kent C

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If the objective is transition (tobacco>vaping) then its a foregone conclusion they will be selectively approved and own it

Lot packed in there. :- ) If by 'objective' you mean the tobacco companies objective, then yes. And a foregone conclusion about that is not collusion. It's the 'selectively approved' part that I question. Selectively approved by whom? I'm guessing you mean the FDA, and on that, as I mentioned in the post quoted, I think it is an unintended by-product of the deeming, not any intentional selection. Does the FDA know that the tobacco companies are in the best position to take advantage? Sure, - they would be even bigger fools than they are, if they didn't know that, but short of banning ecigs completely, I see no other route for the FDA to keep the tobacco companies out.

Well, that last isn't entirely true - the FDA could not allow any ecig to be grandfathered and they could reject any applications for new products at all, on many grounds as laid out in the deeming. And that's not entirely improbable, given their track record on applications. I'm guessing that would bring on huge law suits.
 

englishmick

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So, you think the only people stocking up right now are DIY'ers? I'm guessing whichever DIY'er currently has the most nic, the lowest (future) fully intending black market operative has 10 times that amount.

That never occurred to me for some reason. Makes sense. There might be a lot of money to be made. The only thing that makes me wonder is the uncertainty around the regs. Someone who is planning to sell juice after the legal market closes down has to hesitate a little before spending a bunch of money on something that might not happen. I think it would be a pretty safe bet though, and the potential profit margins would be huge.

Another aspect is that I think a lot of people may already be doing it. My sources of information are limited, but I've heard a handful of reports from the real world about people buying and selling home made juice, and a few posts on here that suggest the same thing. Does anyone have a handle on how widespread this might be?
 

englishmick

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Lot packed in there. :- ) If by 'objective' you mean the tobacco companies objective, then yes. And a foregone conclusion about that is not collusion. It's the 'selectively approved' part that I question. Selectively approved by whom? I'm guessing you mean the FDA, and on that, as I mentioned in the post quoted, I think it is an unintended by-product of the deeming, not any intentional selection. Does the FDA know that the tobacco companies are in the best position to take advantage? Sure, - they would be even bigger fools than they are, if they didn't know that, but short of banning ecigs completely, I see no other route for the FDA to keep the tobacco companies out.

Well, that last isn't entirely true - the FDA could not allow any ecig to be grandfathered and they could reject any applications for new products at all, on many grounds as laid out in the deeming. And that's not entirely improbable, given their track record on applications. I'm guessing that would bring on huge law suits.

I think you're right to question motives and intentions. There are so many players in this game and they all have their own angle. Even just "the FDA" isn't a unitary thing. The people at the very top are likely motivated by trying to do the will of their political bosses. Others might be driven by bureaucratic inertia or internal empire building through some role supervising the assessment of applications or whatever. Some will be factoring in the cushy jobs they might get when they transition out from government into the corporate world. There might be some individuals who are true believers in the cause of removing the evil nicotine from the world.

I guess we should just look at their actions and avoid trying to guess what's going on in their collective mind. It's a form of anthropomorphism really.
 

MacTechVpr

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Well, that last isn't entirely true - the FDA could not allow any ecig to be grandfathered and they could reject any applications for new products at all, on many grounds as laid out in the deeming. And that's not entirely improbable, given their track record on applications. I'm guessing that would bring on huge law suits.

Not to state the obvious (glad you see it)…but isn't that what the OP is about with the deeming reg's? The postulated potential eradication of 99.9% of vendors? I have little doubt of the intention. Or who the self-proclaimed benefactors will be by their own projections. Just suggesting by several posts that it's likely to be incremental. That it may be misleading and falsely encouraging. The footprint will seem shallow but it's a railroad track. And with time the evisceration of the market will occur leaving many to be scooped up for a song in Sherman's wake. So yeah, what I said. Again the underlying concern in this estimation is the likelihood of independent nicotine base production and public sale surviving in the midst of this. I'd hate to see people panic at the thought when what I feel would be most beneficial is even a greater public presence. The public will not feel or join us if we hoard and hide in the shadows. I'm not in favor of a black market but a very active independent market as resistance. Lot to this paragraph, I know.

Have a great day all. G'luck

:)
 

skoony

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No one's banning nic anytime soon. The whole duplicitous scam falls apart. What's the FDA gonna say…anybody can have nic but vapers. An abolition isn't coming anytime soon either. That is their addiction and the ties that bind them. Their own regulatory morass.

Good luck.

:)
Alarm bells just went off in my head. What you say makes sense to me.
What occurs to me is they need the nic. How else will they keep us coming back
to the well. We will have the nic but, in what form? Consider this. We know from
clinical studies where nic was used to assess its medicinal qualities in the treatment
of various illnesses that it doesn't cause dependency in life time non-users of tobacco
products. The myth of nicotine addiction - Formindep
This means they can't count on new entry level e-cig users whom have never smoked
to maintain a customer base. If every smoker transitions to vaping sooner or later
that base will dwindle to nothing years down the road. Could this mean the end not
only to cigarettes but, eventually vaping? The only way they can maintain a customer
base over the long haul is to have a steady stream of cigarette users entering the market.
The only other alternative is to find a new hook. Something that has addictive qualities
the same as nicotine when smoked in cigarettes to put in the juice.
As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times.". I wonder if they have anticipated
the long game or if they even have a long game.
:2c:
Regards
Mike
 

zoiDman

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... If every smoker transitions to vaping sooner or later
that base will dwindle to nothing years down the road.
Could this mean the end not
only to cigarettes but, eventually vaping? The only way they can maintain a customer
base over the long haul is to have a steady stream of cigarette users entering the market.
The only other alternative is to find a new hook. Something that has addictive qualities
the same as nicotine when smoked in cigarettes to put in the juice. ...

That's a Pretty Big "If".

And one that most Don't see happing anytime in the Future. Especially if Regulated e-Cigarettes are not on a Par with Today's Technology (or Better).

BTW - There is Nothing Physically Addictive in Human Nails that would cause a Never Nail Biter to become Addicted to Biting their Nails. So why do Some People have such a Hard Time Quitting?
 

MacTechVpr

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BTW - There is Nothing Physically Addictive in Human Nails that would cause a Never Nail Biter to become Addicted to Biting their Nails. So why do Some People have such a Hard Time Quitting?

:D LOL. Mornin' z. G'luck.

It is by nic alone I set my mind in motion.
It is by the juice of vapor that thoughts acquire speed,
the lips acquire stains, the stains become a warning.
It is by nic alone I set my mind in motion.
 

zoiDman

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:D LOL. Mornin' z. G'luck.

It is by nic alone I set my mind in motion.
It is by the juice of vapor that thoughts acquire speed,
the lips acquire stains, the stains become a warning.
It is by nic alone I set my mind in motion.

I do some of my Better Analogies before 9:00am while Drinking Coffee.

BTW - Is that Italic-ed Passage derived from something Frank Herbert wrote?
 

Rossum

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The public will not feel or join us if we hoard and hide in the shadows.
I have no intention of hiding in the shadows.

I'm hoarding because I do not wish to be stuck buying the crappy, over-priced and over-taxed products that will be left once the goobermint has their way with us.

You wanna know what would really tick off a decent portion of the the public? If we all went back to smoking. My family and my employees consider vaping something of a miracle, because as recently as 102 weeks ago, they all figured I would never quit smoking. Imagine if vaping were truly banned and the penalties were stiff enough that I wasn't willing to risk being caught. Chances are quite good that I'd be smoking again within a few days. That would produce 20 or so people who were quite indignant at our wannabe rulers.
 

skoony

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BTW - There is Nothing Physically Addictive in Human Nails that would cause a Never Nail Biter to become Addicted to Biting their Nails. So why do Some People have such a Hard Time Quitting?
Because they become addicted to smoking cigarettes. People who have never used tobacco products
do not develop a dependency to nicotine when administered as medicine. People who smoked while
taking medicinal nicotine did not alter their consumption of tobacco products during or after the
clinical trials to compensate for the extra nicotine while the trials were ongoing nor after the
trials were over.
You're a thinking man. What do you think this means?
:2c:
Regards
Mike
 

Rossum

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People who have never used tobacco products
do not develop a dependency to nicotine when administered as medicine.
There are plenty of people who never develop dependency on opiates either, when they are administered as medicine. But vaping isn't medicine. It's "recreational".
 

MacTechVpr

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I do some of my Better Analogies before 9:00am while Drinking Coffee.

BTW - Is that Italic-ed Passage derived from something Frank Herbert wrote?

Frank's Hugo award winner, DUNE. Yep. One of the finest scifi novels written. Rich, textured as was the film.

G'luck.
 
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