FDA FDA's leaked guidance for PMTAs confirm deeming reg would ban >99.9% of nicotine vapor products

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MacTechVpr

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That applying Causality from One Situation to Another Situation Isn't always True.

I don't see a Future where there are No Smokers because Everyone Vapes FDA approved e-Cigarettes and e-liquids.

And I don't see BT or BV needing to add something to e-liquids to Keep Never-Smokers "Hooked" on e-Cigarettes.

How about inducing brand preference? It's in there among those 4000-7000 chemical additives. Think that kind of seeped out in the tobacco [litigation] wars.

G'luck.
 
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AndriaD

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Why do you Believe this is True? For Non Adults, I see the Direct Opposite. Vaping High Nicotine for the Buzz.

And Isn't that who Most Never-Smokers who try Vaping are? Non-Adults.

I would guess that if a never-smoker tries vaping high-nic for a buzz, they end up with more barf than buzz. :D

Andria
 

AndriaD

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I bet they are already running experiments somewhere to see if this works.

And it very likely will. I've been stepping down my WTA percentage all year, and recently started stepping down my nic level to get it 50% lower for winter. Lowering the nicotine has been as easy as falling off a log. Lowering the WTA level, though not too difficult at the very slow pace I've used, has been a good bit more challenging; after each step-down, I have a day or two out of whack; either feeling I can't seem to vape enough, or just out of sorts, angry, irritable, sad, etc -- a milder version (thx to the very slow pace) of classic smoking-cessation withdrawal.

Andria
 

AndriaD

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Yeah... How Well did that work out for BT?

LOL

Worked out really well for Virginia Slims, which I think is an Altria product; some studies I've read suggest there is more brand loyalty to VS cigarettes than to all the other brands combined; even when VS smokers switch to "lighter" smokes, they tend to stay with VS versions.

Andria
 
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Jman8

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That never occurred to me for some reason. Makes sense. There might be a lot of money to be made. The only thing that makes me wonder is the uncertainty around the regs. Someone who is planning to sell juice after the legal market closes down has to hesitate a little before spending a bunch of money on something that might not happen. I think it would be a pretty safe bet though, and the potential profit margins would be huge.

At a certain level of black market thinking (one I don't even care for), it could very well be these people pushing for harsh regulations. In a sense though, why wouldn't you?

Another aspect is that I think a lot of people may already be doing it. My sources of information are limited, but I've heard a handful of reports from the real world about people buying and selling home made juice, and a few posts on here that suggest the same thing. Does anyone have a handle on how widespread this might be?

We are currently existing in a gray market, from how I understand things. We were never sanctioned by the powers that be to sell vaping items. I believe their preference would be to disallow all sales until it is properly vetted, read as 10 to 30 years of studying. Once that is concluded and risks are better understood, THEN would be the time to allow public access, in way that makes sense (to them, or to humanity).

I honestly think of everything as "home made." But do understand a distinction between product made in low quality production line and high(er) quality production facilities. But to answer your inquiry in way that makes sense to me, currently all product is being home made. And as much as that is debatable, I think it quite plausible that if everything (legal) goes to level of 'big vape production,' then it strikes me as very likely that incidents of harm go up from where they currently are or have been in the gray market. Intuitively, it would make sense for it to go down, and yet the known incidents of harm currently wrt eLiquid is between very low and non existent. The unintended incidents (i.e. child swallowing liquid lying around) aren't going to change because of big vape production.

With an underground market, buyer and seller have very good reason to not report (minor) incidents of harm going forward. Major incidents of harm in that type of market will be exploited, but we already see that in the gray market. The major incidents will be double edged. On the one hand it will be spun why no one should ever vape, but especially why no one should ever vape anything from the illegal market. And on the other hand, it could be spun as why the legal market needs to be far more flexible, with knowledge that prior to the restrictive market, there were far fewer incidents of (major) harm.

With the legal market, that is highly restrictive, I can think of a few reason why incidents of (any) harm will go up. One being that scammer types or ANTZ friendly people will constantly seek to exploit BV and keep them tied up in civil court, hopefully gaining large sums of money. From ANTZ perspective, the sooner a master settlement agreement with BV is arrived at, the better for 'everyone.' At that time, then everyone will understand that vaping was inherently dangerous like ANTZ was telling you back in 2015 (and before). Another reason I think incidents of harm will go up is because of stiff competition and essentially bad players (or scammers) within the playing field then. As in don't use 'their product' cause they have cooties. If anyone favoring legal market politics has any desire to keep it to say 3 to 5 major companies, then one way to ensure that remains status quo is to make it so any competing players are strongly associated with 'harmful products' or lesser quality. Third reason I see incidents of harm going up is that vaping will then be fully accepted as 'legal' or understood as 'FDA approved' while ANTZ continue to churn out information that says 'vaping is inherently dangerous, and here, let us count the ways.' Scammers, as mentioned before will exploit that. But regular joes and janes will think twice about any affliction they are feeling and due to fear mongering from ANTZ will attribute it to vaping. As in, "my throat is scratchy lately, doc says it could be serious throat condition, and I'm thinking it is due to vaping. Saw article recently that said vaping ruins people's throats. Yeah, it's gotta be the vaping, and only vaping that has caused this." Fourth reason I see, that follows from previous one is that when vapers do die, then ANTZ will have ammunition to start running with meme of "vaping kills." If you are someone that currently believes "smoking kills," then I don't think it'll be too hard to convince you that "vaping kills" especially as there will one day be plenty of evidence that vapers die, even while vaping up to their last breath.

Fifth, and final reason that I can think of is that I think product will be altered due to perception that "vaping, as it stands now, is inherently harmful." Here in 2015, pre FDA-deeming, a pro-vaping enthusiasts (rightfully) finds that questionable, or doubtful. But I think if market is restrictive, and ANTZ continues being ANTZ, and scammers are exploiting the system, and all other things I mentioned before, then scientists will insist the product has ingredients that are 'avoidable risks' and that this substitute chemical, while not perhaps well vetted, has got to be better for everyone than the 'known' harm that is currently in vapor. And so, all product must now only contain that. That strikes me as enormous gamble to take. And one that I wish to go on record in 2015 as saying I think will backfire. Big time.
 

sofarsogood

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From what I have gathered 3% or less of total vapers are never tobacco users.
I don't know the age break out. however less than 1 % of these use nicotine.
Regards
Mike
My hunch is kids who never smoked will lose interest in vaping and so will a lot of the ones who switched to vaping because, as kids, they didn't smoke very many years. Vaping will be a fad with kids. Younger brothers usually find a different fad so they don't have to compete with their older brothers. The cost difference between smoking and vaping will discourage the gateway effect.

Somebody mentioned black markets. That would mean higher prices. I think the cost difference between smoking and vaping is more compelling than the health arguments. If vaping was the same health risk I'd still switch to save $3,000 a year. The difference is I'd put more pressure on myself to stop vaping too. I haven't tried but I suspect quitting vaping would be easier than quitting smoking.

Most of the news stories I read are about communities stressing about young people. The stories almost always revolve around the local vape shops. Neighbors don't like vape shops when they are used as hangouts. I get it. It's hard to do a news story about vaping if there is no local shop.
 

zoiDman

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I would guess that if a never-smoker tries vaping high-nic for a buzz, they end up with more barf than buzz. :D

Andria

I seem to Recall almost Barfing when I tried my 1st Cigarette.

But that didn't stop me from wanting the Buzz. Or the Desire to look "Cool".

LOL.
 

Rossum

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Didn't mean to suggest us hoarders we're hidin'. Who am I to say with 60+ mods? No, just to hint that we need more public engagement. Too easy to fall into the guilt trap again for any and all of us. If for nothin' than avoiding the aggravation of dealin' with the holier than thou's, makes me cringe. Think we need to call out the corner crouchers tho and help e'm see the light that the right to do this vapin' thing ain't free. That myth's gotta be smashed as bad as deeming. And worse, the folks I'm talkin' about, no disrespect intended as we all have our reasons, prolly make up the bulk of this community. Vapin's great, if they can keep it. We may not without 'em.
What guilt trap? I smoked in my house. I smoked in my cars. I smoked in my office (despite the fact that it was technically illegal since 2008). Don't like me smoking (now vaping)? Feel free to go somewhere else. :D
 

Jman8

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The public will not feel or join us if we hoard and hide in the shadows. I'm not in favor of a black market but a very active independent market as resistance. Lot to this paragraph, I know.

I really don't see us hiding in the shadows, but really really appreciate you stating this. I think it will be tempting to hide vaping post FDA-deeming, and perhaps wise to be on the down low if you are stocked up (with lots of liquid). With any other product that is not so legal, if you have that much around, you can claim all you want that it is for personal use, but then how would the law ever be able to nail black market operators who could claim the same thing? Thus, DIY'ers are very likely to be viewed as 'black market operators' even if they have zero intention of selling.

IMO, though all that is worst case scenario. I still don't think FDA is moving country in direction of "vaping is now illegal." I see it mostly as restrictive, and even then, how restrictive it actually will be remains to be seen. But any level of restriction really at all, will mean that people may go to an underground market. You make some banana cherry liquid for me (cause you do it so well) and I'll make some of my famous chocolate mint liquid for you in trade. While the nic would be the 'scary' part in that transaction, in reality it would simply be I want banana cherry liquid that the restrictive market got rid of, and have no problem sharing my famous chocolate mint liquid with you, which also is forbidden on the open market.

Regardless of how it can be spun (negatively), the black market will always be viewed as resistance. Righteous resistance from pro-vaping perspective, and political resistance from neutral parties. Perhaps 'terrorism like resistance' from ANTZ driven media. I don't know. Will be interesting to see how MSM spins that when they aren't engaged in fear mongering.

The thing I feel gets downplayed, even while it is subtext to all posts on this topic, and for sure is subtext to OP of this thread is that demand is not going to change post FDA deeming. That is the genie that is out of the bottle. No amount of fear mongering is going to put it back in. And because ANTZ/MSM overplayed their hand (became highly deceptive in their fear mongering claims), then they probably won't even be believed with fear mongering claims going forward. Strikes me as 'other stuff madness' from mid 1900's, and could play out that way.

But if this were 50 years ago, I would think our resistance would take another 50 years before the tide turns again, and swings in our favor. Here in the information age, I think it will be 10 years, or 25 at most before tide turns back. Could be as low as 3 years.

There's no way we are going to take what they dish out lying down. We aren't going to sit around and say whoa is me for 10 years, wondering what our options are now. Us on vaping forums will have that worked out within 90 days. The average vaper who has no idea right now that FDA might one day put forth restrictive regulations may need more than 90 days to sort through everything, and is why 5 to 25 years might be the time it takes for things to go the other way. Same goes with the public. But of course the full ensemble of 'the public' isn't going to be on board with this issue, nor should we ever expect that. There will be another side to the tale we are telling, and it will be equally compelling for some people in the public. Or reason to see us as engaging in propaganda ourselves that ought not to be taken at first glance.

But knowing what I know about our side's propaganda, and the other side's propaganda, I don't think they stand a chance. For a year or maybe even 24 years, they'll certainly appear like they are on the side of being reasonable, and telling it like it is. Yet, they'd literally have to shut up the day FDA ruling goes into effect to ever have a chance to remain on the side of winning. And since ANTZ don't have that in them, I see them getting buried, neck deep by the lies they tell/will tell, and the shame they projected out, but which was always meant squarely for them.
 

Kent C

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Lots of posts, some 2 pages back, but my thoughts...in between watching OSU v Mich. :- )

Someone who is planning to sell juice after the legal market closes down has to hesitate a little before spending a bunch of money on something that might not happen.

If there is good freezer storage, then just like the for consumer who is 'prepping', there's no downside whether you are going to be selling in the black or regular market. You will sell whatever you have.

There might be some individuals who are true believers in the cause of removing the evil nicotine from the world.

This is what's driving my answers. IF THR had a seat at the table, I might tend to disagree, but TC has the people in place in the universities, studies at the FDA, CDC, etc. where many of them want to erase nicotine from the earth. And I think some others think that banning vaping will also keep people smoking cigarettes and continue to fund all the taxes including MSA. So for the no-nic (ie erase nic) faction AND the 'keep the money flowing' faction, doing away with vaping is the answer to both. The 'erase nic' people will continue with their anti-smoking agenda, of course. And the others will give it lip service.

I guess we should just look at their actions and avoid trying to guess what's going on in their collective mind.

Their actions are the best window to their intentions, but yeah - focus on their actions and taking the deeming from that view says they want to shut down vaping.

but isn't that what the OP is about with the deeming reg's? The postulated potential eradication of 99.9% of vendors?

Yes, but the .1% is either what the tobacco companies can get through either having a grandfather product or the money to apply for new products. I'm saying the FDA could shut down that .1% as well. (of course that's minus the black market that Will happen).

And one that most Don't see happing anytime in the Future. Especially if Regulated e-Cigarettes are not on a Par with Today's Technology (or Better).

I agree. That '.1%' may well be so ineffective that it would have no impact on current smokers to switch.
 

Rossum

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I would guess that if a never-smoker tries vaping high-nic for a buzz, they end up with more barf than buzz. :D
It only takes one hit from an eGo type at 18mg to get someone who's got no tolerance for nic a good buzz. Early on, I was vaping some Belgian Cocoa and my wife (who's never used nicotine) remarked how good it smelled. So I suggested she try it. She had one puff. "Wow! I feel funny. Do you feel like this all the time?" :lol:
 

Kent C

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What guilt trap? I smoked in my house. I smoked in my cars. I smoked in my office (despite the fact that it was technically illegal since 2008). Don't like me smoking (now vaping)? Feel free to go somewhere else. :D

I agree, if I didn't have a 'stash' I'd return to smoking without any 'guilt'. My 'areas' of smoking would be decreased somewhat (vs. vaping) but I handled it when I was smoking.
 

Rossum

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That '.1%' may well be so ineffective that it would have no impact on current smokers to switch.
I expect that once they believe they have the market cornered, BT will will introduce more effective stuff. They want the customers they've already lost to the independent vape market back..
 

Robino1

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Believe it or not, black market relies on repeat customers as well. They are certainly capable of distributing poor quality, and just as likely to be not in business very long.

But if any business right now is making a killing, black market vendor would do just as well, or arguably better, and know quality matters as much now as it ever will.

Me as non DIY'er could make case that by buying fresh product from currently legal vendors, I'm likely getting best quality available and better than any DIY'er. Though I'm thinking a DIY'er would find that debatable.

Originally, most all Eliquid came from China. The Eliquid that we get from vendors now, almost all got their start as DIY'ers. ;)
 

AndriaD

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I seem to Recall almost Barfing when I tried my 1st Cigarette.

But that didn't stop me from wanting the Buzz. Or the Desire to look "Cool".

LOL.

I recall feeling a little.. hmm, maybe "bilious" is a good word -- not exactly nausea, but heading in that direction. Probably that mild because, unknown to me, I didn't really inhale for some time, maybe 3 months before I had built my tolerance for the taste and irritation to the point that I could inhale. I only realized that when some guy at the roller rink, soon after the start of my 9th grade year (I started smoking near the end of my 8th grade year), observed that I had "finally learned to inhale".

If smoking had made me nauseous or actually ill from the start, I'd never have smoked the second time -- but I'm one of those emetophobics who finds nausea/vomiting to be a fate worse than death -- if drinking had made me ill the first time, I'd never have become an alcoholic, for the same reason -- unfortunately my genetics gave me such a huge tolerance, I didn't start getting ill from drinking till my liver was on nearly on its last legs. :facepalm:

Andria
 

schatz

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My hunch is kids who never smoked will lose interest in vaping and so will a lot of the ones who switched to vaping because, as kids, they didn't smoke very many years. Vaping will be a fad with kids. Younger brothers usually find a different fad so they don't have to compete with their older brothers. The cost difference between smoking and vaping will discourage the gateway effect.

Somebody mentioned black markets. That would mean higher prices. I think the cost difference between smoking and vaping is more compelling than the health arguments. If vaping was the same health risk I'd still switch to save $3,000 a year. The difference is I'd put more pressure on myself to stop vaping too. I haven't tried but I suspect quitting vaping would be easier than quitting smoking.

Most of the news stories I read are about communities stressing about young people. The stories almost always revolve around the local vape shops. Neighbors don't like vape shops when they are used as hangouts. I get it. It's hard to do a news story about vaping if there is no local shop.
Very true, my teena
My hunch is kids who never smoked will lose interest in vaping and so will a lot of the ones who switched to vaping because, as kids, they didn't smoke very many years. Vaping will be a fad with kids. Younger brothers usually find a different fad so they don't have to compete with their older brothers. The cost difference between smoking and vaping will discourage the gateway effect.

Somebody mentioned black markets. That would mean higher prices. I think the cost difference between smoking and vaping is more compelling than the health arguments. If vaping was the same health risk I'd still switch to save $3,000 a year. The difference is I'd put more pressure on myself to stop vaping too. I haven't tried but I suspect quitting vaping would be easier than quitting smoking.

Most of the news stories I read are about communities stressing about young people. The stories almost always revolve around the local vape shops. Neighbors don't like vape shops when they are used as hangouts. I get it. It's hard to do a news story about vaping if there is no local shop.
Very true, my teenage daughter, who I caught smoking and converted her to vapeing is reporting that all the kids who vaped in thier freshman and sophomore years now dont see it as cool. The only ones still vapeing are the ones like her that nicotine really helps. All the kids she hangs out with no longer see it as cool and quit much easier than we did.
 

AndriaD

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I agree, if I didn't have a 'stash' I'd return to smoking without any 'guilt'. My 'areas' of smoking would be decreased somewhat (vs. vaping) but I handled it when I was smoking.

My only guilt would be letting myself down -- exactly what I felt when I had my month-long relapse; I am by far my own hardest taskmaster. But that's why I'm stashing nicotine. Maybe a little guilt in returning to subjecting my husband to what I now know is a pretty rank odor. We went out for some Black Friday shopping yesterday, and most stores were quite packed, which also meant a lot of smokers congregated round the doors to wade thru on the way in and out -- everytime I smell that, I'm SO GLAD I don't smell like that anymore!

But I would have little to no guilt about needing to continue consuming what I need, in whatever way that I could get it. But I do consider it a need, which is why I'm stockpiling nicotine, and have learned to DIY my juice, and have a couple of mechs and some spare Kicks also stockpiled, and have moved to 100% rebuildables for atties.

And I gotta say... I really had thought that what nicotine I currently have would be enough, but this thread is persuading me that I really need to buy more. Even if I end up having to use it as DIY pest control. :D

Andria
 
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