CDC changes sample design for 2016 NHIS, finds unlikely increase in adult smoking

[Bill Godshall]

CDC’s implementation of new sample design for 2016 NHIS delineated at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201611_tech.pdf
results in unexplained (and perhaps nonexistent) increase in US adult cigarette smoking rate (from 15.1% in 2015 to 15.8% in 2016), especially since the vast majority of the increase was among adults over 45 years (from 16.9% to 18.4% among adults 45-64, and from 8.4% to 8.8% among 65+), who almost never begin smoking cigarettes.

US NHIS Adult Cigarette Smoking Rate (%)

Year Adults 18-44 45-64 65+
2009 20.6 23.4 21.9 9.5
2010 19.4 21.6 21.2 9.5
2011 18.9 21.1 21.3 7.9
2012 18.0 20.3 19.5 8.9
2013 17.8 19.7 20.0 8.8
2014 16.8 19.1 18.1 8.5
2015 15.1 16.5 16.9 8.4
2016 15.8 16.8 18.4 8.8
Products - NHIS Early Release - 2016 (2016)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/Earlyrelease201705_08.pdf (2016)
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201605_08.pdf (2015)
1997-2016 NHIS data is available at
Products - NHIS Early Release Program - Homepage

Although the CDC has appropriately cautioned NHIS readers that many changes from 2015 to 2016 are likely due to CDC's new sample design for the survey, it is possible that some lazy, stupid and/or biased news media will cite this unexplained increase in adult cigarette smoking to generate sensationalized headlines and articles.

 

[jwbnyc]

You mean like former vapers going back to smoking because of the unrelenting assault on ecigarettes?

Those sorts of sensationalized headlines?

 

[retired1]

Along with sensationalized dollar amounts that, when taken as a whole, aren't as bad as they'd have you believe.