I posted a link to article on the Soubry brouhaha over in the EU Legislation forum, fyi.
NJOY CEO Craig Weiss correspondence with Smokefree Pennsylvania's Bill Godshall on UK MHRA e-cigarette regulation
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From time to time I actually enjoy an njoy! They are too expensive as we all know. Anyway my point is, I can no longer support them in light of the recent MHRA backing. We vapers have to stick together, they are going to "sell out" here in the states too in hopes of cornering the market. I don't trust them, as I see them making waves here in the US after this recent declaration. IMHO this announcement speaks volumes about njoy's agenda.
Their agenda is the same as pretty much all big business agenda. Once a business reaches a certain market share, it's nearly impossible to hold on to the morality and ideals with which it started. And once they're incorporated (publicly traded), then the focus is on the share holders and quarterly sales reports, and the product quality and customer satisfaction become secondary at best.
Absolutely agree, though, lets see how many support the MHRA ruling. So far only two I believe. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised, but I don't see any possible good coming from this type of regulation (not even for NJOY). As I said in another thread, NJOY has to live with this decision. Lets see how much they support MHRA when they cant get their current product or any product for that matter approved.
- Apr 2, 2009
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I agree with most of Rolly's points above, except the following statement.
Although I'd welcome (and be pleased to assist with) lawsuits against those making false claims about e-cigs, I'd be shocked if BAT would file litigation.
Rather, I suspect BAT will directly or indirectly market their MHRA approved e-cigs to smokers as "MHRA approved medicine".
Interestingly, back in 2004/05 after I jokingly claimed that (if US Congress enacted the Waxman/Kennedy FSPTCA legislation) cigarette companies would begin marketing their cigarettes as "FDA approved", Congressman Henry Waxman changed his proposed legislation to also make it a felony for tobacco companies to claim that their products are "FDA approved".
Although I'd welcome (and be pleased to assist with) lawsuits against those making false claims about e-cigs, I'd be shocked if BAT would file litigation.
Rather, I suspect BAT will directly or indirectly market their MHRA approved e-cigs to smokers as "MHRA approved medicine".
Interestingly, back in 2004/05 after I jokingly claimed that (if US Congress enacted the Waxman/Kennedy FSPTCA legislation) cigarette companies would begin marketing their cigarettes as "FDA approved", Congressman Henry Waxman changed his proposed legislation to also make it a felony for tobacco companies to claim that their products are "FDA approved".
I am taking the long view here, Bill. No doubt this won't happen soon; but I see a time when cigarette sales = 40% and ecig sales = 60% of the market.
Long before that happens, tobacco companies who have moved into ecigs will need to defend against the lies. You can't defend cigarettes against attack but ecigs are something that will probably cause 1/5,000th of the problems and are closer to coffee than tobacco; large corporations selling coffee will not stand by and allow any Tom, D ick and Harry to claim it is dangerous, carcinogenic, and we don't know what's in it. They have the muscle to stop all that malarky and will need to.
Since (as you say) some of their models will be 'MHRA approved', and probably at some stage 'FDA approved', and those models will be identical to consumer models except with different packaging, they will presumably have a legal basis for defending against unwarranted attack.
Long before that happens, tobacco companies who have moved into ecigs will need to defend against the lies. You can't defend cigarettes against attack but ecigs are something that will probably cause 1/5,000th of the problems and are closer to coffee than tobacco; large corporations selling coffee will not stand by and allow any Tom, D ick and Harry to claim it is dangerous, carcinogenic, and we don't know what's in it. They have the muscle to stop all that malarky and will need to.
Since (as you say) some of their models will be 'MHRA approved', and probably at some stage 'FDA approved', and those models will be identical to consumer models except with different packaging, they will presumably have a legal basis for defending against unwarranted attack.
I also think that Pfizer etc. will need to get into this market in one way or another, because on the day that an e-cigarette gets a medicinal license all other pharmaceutical interventions will be rendered obsolete*.
The idea that BAT and Pfizer will allow the current level of attack on ecigs to continue is not realistic. Of course this is a long view, not for tomorrow. In any case by that stage they will have removed all other players by legislation as this is the normal business method in these industries. All upgrade market products will be black market only by that stage.
* And clearly this is why licensing is taking so long; there are a lot of powerful people who will be extremely angry on the day a license is issued.
The idea that BAT and Pfizer will allow the current level of attack on ecigs to continue is not realistic. Of course this is a long view, not for tomorrow. In any case by that stage they will have removed all other players by legislation as this is the normal business method in these industries. All upgrade market products will be black market only by that stage.
* And clearly this is why licensing is taking so long; there are a lot of powerful people who will be extremely angry on the day a license is issued.
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Well I am not feeling to well after this post! Sad but probably true. Do you see the same pattern with advanced e-cigs here in the states too? I don't know how to feel about this stuff anymore. There are days I see and feel a sense of hope, but in my gut, I really think the FDA is going to destroy anything advanced. They have too many wealthy corporations to please. At the very least, I see nic content and flavoring choices greatly reduced If they have their way. BT and BP will have their input on this. Too much money lost in NRT's and BT will probably stick to making an inadequate cigalike. If they want to compete with their lousy products, then it will be in their best interests, to restrict further advancements and probably take technology back a notch. Obviously, we want to fight this thing and keep on pushing the "deeming" back, maybe permanently even, but in part, I am tired of waiting to see what we are up against.
I wouldn't worry about it. I tend to look a long way into the future because it makes the immediate future much clearer: if you have a good idea what the situation will be in 20 or 30 years (and we do), then it makes it easier to work out what will happen next year.
Consumers don't need to worry at this stage, because there is some way to go before things get tougher. In any case, the black market will replace any product area that pharma / tobacco manage to get banned. Most existing vapers will always be able to get the products they need, bans only put the price up. It's tough on newcomers though because the market they will see, at some point, will just be the current gas station models (and maybe B&M only). There is a way to go before we reach that point and it is always possible that the independent market will be strong enough to resist that legislative pressure - although this will be highly dependent on where you are. In the US it looks as if the strong independents will be like NJoy, and basically in the same market as the big tobacco corporations, so they may accept the same regulations. But as the pressure on the cigarette market builds, tobacco will pay whatever it takes to buy out the big independents.
In the EU it is slightly different as there are no really strong mini-only ecig vendors (with turnovers in the $75m range like the US players), and the trade might be able to fight more effectively against regulation that restricts the market to minis with tobacco flavour, which is universally what legislative pressure will try to enforce (as it suits the big players and is a compromise regulatory climate replacing the ban that commercial rivals would prefer).
The next stage in the game is to see when/if the FDA announce a deeming regulation and exactly what it includes, if they manage to get it out (they are probably under huge pressure from just about everywhere); and the same thing for the EU Tobacco Products Directive - will it pass with a medicinal clause for any ecig product, and if so will that be overturned in court, and if so will the EU have a fallback position to classify ecigs as a tobacco product, and if so how soon will they be able to restrict/remove ecigs by implementing it.
Imagine if you just invented a car engine fuel that cost 10c a gallon and could be produced in unlimited quantities from water, salt and a little electricity. We're in about the same place with ecigs - a whole section of the existing economy is under threat and the current players are fighting as hard as they possibly can to block the new technology. They will be swept away soon enough as you can't stop progress - they are as dead as sailing ship builders, stagecoach makers and hand weavers (although they probably can't see that themselves, as stagecoach makers probably think they are invulnerable after having the market to themselves for a couple of hundred years). What they need to do is slow it down as much as possible in order to survive for a few more decades. That's all they've got.
There will always be a market for sailing ships, coaches and hand weavers of course - only it's about 0.0001% the size it was before the invention of the steamship, the railway and the mechanical loom. Three or four decades later and that old stuff is done. Cigarettes and the pharmaceuticals for treating smoking diseases are dead men walking (in the Western world). The sailing ship lasts a lot longer in the third world and that's where the cigarette and pharma trade will have to go.
No need to worry about any of this for a while yet, in terms of what you need to buy next month or whatever.
Consumers don't need to worry at this stage, because there is some way to go before things get tougher. In any case, the black market will replace any product area that pharma / tobacco manage to get banned. Most existing vapers will always be able to get the products they need, bans only put the price up. It's tough on newcomers though because the market they will see, at some point, will just be the current gas station models (and maybe B&M only). There is a way to go before we reach that point and it is always possible that the independent market will be strong enough to resist that legislative pressure - although this will be highly dependent on where you are. In the US it looks as if the strong independents will be like NJoy, and basically in the same market as the big tobacco corporations, so they may accept the same regulations. But as the pressure on the cigarette market builds, tobacco will pay whatever it takes to buy out the big independents.
In the EU it is slightly different as there are no really strong mini-only ecig vendors (with turnovers in the $75m range like the US players), and the trade might be able to fight more effectively against regulation that restricts the market to minis with tobacco flavour, which is universally what legislative pressure will try to enforce (as it suits the big players and is a compromise regulatory climate replacing the ban that commercial rivals would prefer).
The next stage in the game is to see when/if the FDA announce a deeming regulation and exactly what it includes, if they manage to get it out (they are probably under huge pressure from just about everywhere); and the same thing for the EU Tobacco Products Directive - will it pass with a medicinal clause for any ecig product, and if so will that be overturned in court, and if so will the EU have a fallback position to classify ecigs as a tobacco product, and if so how soon will they be able to restrict/remove ecigs by implementing it.
Imagine if you just invented a car engine fuel that cost 10c a gallon and could be produced in unlimited quantities from water, salt and a little electricity. We're in about the same place with ecigs - a whole section of the existing economy is under threat and the current players are fighting as hard as they possibly can to block the new technology. They will be swept away soon enough as you can't stop progress - they are as dead as sailing ship builders, stagecoach makers and hand weavers (although they probably can't see that themselves, as stagecoach makers probably think they are invulnerable after having the market to themselves for a couple of hundred years). What they need to do is slow it down as much as possible in order to survive for a few more decades. That's all they've got.
There will always be a market for sailing ships, coaches and hand weavers of course - only it's about 0.0001% the size it was before the invention of the steamship, the railway and the mechanical loom. Three or four decades later and that old stuff is done. Cigarettes and the pharmaceuticals for treating smoking diseases are dead men walking (in the Western world). The sailing ship lasts a lot longer in the third world and that's where the cigarette and pharma trade will have to go.
No need to worry about any of this for a while yet, in terms of what you need to buy next month or whatever.
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Thank you, rolygate, for injecting a much needed dose of reality-based, rational objectivity into the discussion! Somewhat akin to what 2coils said, I go through periods of intense anger, then intense depression, then overwhelming frustration, over the regulatory/legislative limbo and even the social purgatory we're in right now. We see so much negativity in the media and in our legislatures; we feel such uncertainty about our future as vapers, that it's sometimes hard to think beyond "But will I be able to get my juice next year?" Then I read a post such as yours and feel some small ray of hope that common sense may prevail and we may have a future after all! And that's a good thing... 
NRT makes money (It's in shareholders interests) -if NRT was 'effective' (which it is not) it wouldn't provide the riches.
It is my gut feeling that vaping will be turned into another innefective 'money go round', only my opinion of course (we're all entitled to one).
Pessimist? when it comes to money the truth can be buried-for a price.
As we all should know, any lawyer worth his/her salt, can argue either side of an argument, effectively and with a straight face.
As regards the optimism/pessimism question: why worry?
Why worry that the world won't get the full-on vaping experience as this will be strangled by regulations designed to slow the transition process down as much as possible? People who are prepared to do their research will be OK. You can't cure the world's problems, all you can do is help a few people at a time.
Vaping is about to go mainstream, which means that it will be blanketed by laws and commercial pressures. It's like inventing a new cheap fuel, you can't expect something like this to go unopposed. The smoking economy is so vast it has tremendous power and will protect itself: my estimate is it is at least three times the size of the global tobacco sales figure, which is about $650bn currently. We're talking a money machine worth around $2 trillion a year - the machine is sufficiently well armoured due to its size. Think diplodocus size (the largest dinosaur, I seem to recall). Too big for anything else to kill; it dies off in the end because the environment no longer supports it.
There will always be a space for the custom builders and suppliers of high-quality products, even if for a time they have to operate underground.
Why worry that the world won't get the full-on vaping experience as this will be strangled by regulations designed to slow the transition process down as much as possible? People who are prepared to do their research will be OK. You can't cure the world's problems, all you can do is help a few people at a time.
Vaping is about to go mainstream, which means that it will be blanketed by laws and commercial pressures. It's like inventing a new cheap fuel, you can't expect something like this to go unopposed. The smoking economy is so vast it has tremendous power and will protect itself: my estimate is it is at least three times the size of the global tobacco sales figure, which is about $650bn currently. We're talking a money machine worth around $2 trillion a year - the machine is sufficiently well armoured due to its size. Think diplodocus size (the largest dinosaur, I seem to recall). Too big for anything else to kill; it dies off in the end because the environment no longer supports it.
There will always be a space for the custom builders and suppliers of high-quality products, even if for a time they have to operate underground.
+10000 likes! It has been some roller coaster ride, its just getting me a little nauseous and sometimes I want to hop off! As for getting my liquid for next week/year or whatever it really does not concern me, I have prepared well. I am fighting for those who don't know whats going on with this B.S. . I am fighting for smokers who I hope experience the same the same joy in quitting that I have. When I was a kid i'd stop smoking whenever I wanted, for a couple of days or weeks it didn't matter. I didn't have the level of addiction I have had 17 months ago (the last time). I can't imagine how hard it must be for those who have a 35 or 40 year habit. I know I'm okay, It's time to help others!Thank you, rolygate, for injecting a much needed dose of reality-based, rational objectivity into the discussion! Somewhat akin to what 2coils said, I go through periods of intense anger, then intense depression, then overwhelming frustration, over the regulatory/legislative limbo and even the social purgatory we're in right now. We see so much negativity in the media and in our legislatures; we feel such uncertainty about our future as vapers, that it's sometimes hard to think beyond "But will I be able to get my juice next year?" Then I read a post such as yours and feel some small ray of hope that common sense may prevail and we may have a future after all! And that's a good thing...
+10000 right back atcha! And in fact, in addition to superbly rational posts by our gurus, this is what keeps me in the ring. I know I'll be okay because of the 3, or is it now 4?, litres of very strong nic juice living in my freezer, which for me is probably a lifetime supply. But I think about all the smokers who have yet to discover vaping and who may not have the chance to if the ANTZ prevail, and I know that I can't sit back and relax but have to keep on fighting for the cause.
I wonder if Rolly is right.
Someone suggested that if medical authorization became law in the EU that the big players might park ecigs all together knowing that no one else could afford to get into the market. Why sell a product in opposition to your own product?
I can't see this happening because BT will want a replacement for dwindling cigetette sales and BP will need to recoup the lost NRT revenue. What they will do about the knock on losses is anyone's guess.
Both will want as slow a transition as possible and Government will want the same for reasons of both revenue and caution ( civil serpents don't like change anyway).
Where Rolly and I part company is timescale, he thinks 20 to 40 years I think less than 10. Ecigs are closer to phone or Pc's in terms of tech. We have seen mobile phones effectively replace the old landline and tablets (and coincidentally the mobile phone) replace the big box pc all within 10 years.
Only question as far as ecigs are concerned is how far along are they? Is todays ecig the Motorola DynaTAC, or the Nokia 3210.
Someone suggested that if medical authorization became law in the EU that the big players might park ecigs all together knowing that no one else could afford to get into the market. Why sell a product in opposition to your own product?
I can't see this happening because BT will want a replacement for dwindling cigetette sales and BP will need to recoup the lost NRT revenue. What they will do about the knock on losses is anyone's guess.
Both will want as slow a transition as possible and Government will want the same for reasons of both revenue and caution ( civil serpents don't like change anyway).
Where Rolly and I part company is timescale, he thinks 20 to 40 years I think less than 10. Ecigs are closer to phone or Pc's in terms of tech. We have seen mobile phones effectively replace the old landline and tablets (and coincidentally the mobile phone) replace the big box pc all within 10 years.
Only question as far as ecigs are concerned is how far along are they? Is todays ecig the Motorola DynaTAC, or the Nokia 3210.
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Give someone who wants to get off tobacco and try vaping-someone who is not aware of all the options currently available
a: a 'cigalike' for 3 months, with a supply of expensive 'approved' cartos, nic strength 3mg-24mg
the following 3 months give them
b: an Ego twist with a supply of Kanger Protanks and liquid. Nic strength from 3mg-24mg
Which one do they keep and which one do they gladly hand back ?
It's a hypothetical question of course-it would need a proper survey under strict guidelines to yield true and honest results.
In the meantime......
Make a prediction on what you know, and your own experience.
a: a 'cigalike' for 3 months, with a supply of expensive 'approved' cartos, nic strength 3mg-24mg
the following 3 months give them
b: an Ego twist with a supply of Kanger Protanks and liquid. Nic strength from 3mg-24mg
Which one do they keep and which one do they gladly hand back ?
It's a hypothetical question of course-it would need a proper survey under strict guidelines to yield true and honest results.
In the meantime......
Make a prediction on what you know, and your own experience.
If I was assured that every smoker would have ample chance to try electronic cigarettes, I'd still be in this thing.
At this point I want to put the ANTZ out of business every bit as badly as they want to put the tobacco companies out of business.
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