Altria: JUUL Of Denial

[iVapeDIY]

Altria: JUUL Of Denial - JUUL (Private:JUUL) | Seeking Alpha

It is not rocket science to extrapolate how much of juul's fabulous growth is coming from this segment.

Investors should brace for the write-down and an explicit admission of the error from management. The stock has gotten cheaper for sure, but this is not the Altria of the past, and buy and hold may not be the best choice. Instead of that we would look for a tradeable rally near the low $40s. A more lasting buy point could come if Altria's own sales volumes stabilize and it writes down the value of juul.

 

[iVapeDIY]

Institutional investors are dumping Altria.

https://stocksbeat.com/2019/09/05/t...n-in-altria-group-mo-as-stock-price-declined/

Troy Asset Management Ltd decreased its stake in Altria Group Inc (MO) by 94.59% based on its latest 2019Q1
​

https://cryptocoinstribune.com/cbs-...set-management-trimmed-stake-by-3-70-million/

Steinberg Global Asset Management decreased its stake in Altria Group Inc (MO) by 72.05% based on its latest 2019Q1​

https://enherald.com/exxon-mobil-xo...ltria-group-mo-position-by-701100-as-stock-p/

Legg Mason Asset Management Japan decreased its stake in Altria Group Inc (MO) by 51.04% based on its latest 2019Q1​

 

[zoiDman]

Altria: JUUL Of Denial - JUUL (Private:JUUL) | Seeking Alpha

It is not rocket science to extrapolate how much of JUUL's fabulous growth is coming from this segment.

Investors should brace for the write-down and an explicit admission of the error from management. The stock has gotten cheaper for sure, but this is not the Altria of the past, and buy and hold may not be the best choice. Instead of that we would look for a tradeable rally near the low $40s. A more lasting buy point could come if Altria's own sales volumes stabilize and it writes down the value of JUUL.

Just so we are Clear, and not Slaves to Graphical Bar Graphs, a few Questions...

How, exactly, is "Prevalence of Vaping" quantitatively defined?
What was the Sampling Size?
How were the Samples Selected?
What Significance was used of Error to the True Population?
Are there any Financial Conflicts with the Data Collectors?
Are there any Financial Conflicts with the Data Collectors Funding?
Have these Numbers be Validated by an Independent 3rd Party?

 

[Nermal]

Those are all important questions - that will never be asked by the right people.

 

[sofarsogood]

The elites want to ban vaping while cigarettes remain for sale the same as always. To get away with that the lies have to be woppers.

 

[zoiDman]

Those are all important questions - that will never be asked by the right people.

Yeah... I remember years and years ago as an Under-Graduate when my Stats-350 instructor told me that the Easiest way to Influence the Vast Majority of People is to just show them a Bar Graph or a Chart Plot.

He went on to Explain how you Didn't need to Qualify any Data. Or even make a Reference as to How the Data was Collected. Just put whatever you want in a Bar Graph/Chart Plot format and the Graphic is itself Self-Validating to All but a Select Few.

Even the Few that may Question the Data, have the Graphic Indelibly Etched into their Memory. And Images are like 10 Times Harder to remove from Memory than are Number or Word concepts.

 

[iVapeDIY]

Just so we are Clear, and not Slaves to Graphical Bar Graphs, a few Questions...

How, exactly, is "Prevalence of Vaping" quantitatively defined?
What was the Sampling Size?
How were the Samples Selected?
What Significance was used of Error to the True Population?
Are there any Financial Conflicts with the Data Collectors?
Are there any Financial Conflicts with the Data Collectors Funding?
Have these Numbers be Validated by an Independent 3rd Party?

As cited in article, see See New England Journal Of Medicine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1814130

More details ...

 

[iVapeDIY]

For those not familiar with Seeking Alpha and falling knives:

• Seeking Alpha - Wikipedia
• What Is a Falling Knife?
• How To Catch A Falling Knife | Seeking Alpha

A falling knife is a colloquial term for a rapid drop in the price or value of a security. The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of a bankruptcy.​

 

[Rossum]

For those not familiar with Seeking Alpha and falling knives:

OK, you found a negative article about JUUL/MO on Seeking Alpha. But there are just as many, if not more positive ones there too. That 7.6% dividend yield is very enticing, and I just don't see the company that makes Marlboro and who recently got a PMTA approved for IQOS going broke anytime soon.

 

[iVapeDIY]

OK, you found a negative article about JUUL/MO on Seeking Alpha. But there are just as many, if not more positive ones there too. That 7.6% dividend yield is very enticing, and I just don't see the company that makes Marlboro and who recently got a PMTA approved for IQOS going broke anytime soon.

Recent positive articles are few and far between. Altria is being downgraded left and right; here's latest Wall Street downgrade ...

Altria downgraded as analyst questions Philip Morris merger and further scrutiny of Juul's vaping ads

Altria's debt rating is also BBB and getting closer to 'junk bond status'. What good is a 7.6% dividend if you may lose your principal? How much of a "haircut" are you willing to take when the Juul write-down occurs? Prudent investors don't want to be "left holding the bag." (Bagholder - Wikipedia)

 

[Rossum]

Recent positive articles are few and far between. Altria is being downgraded left and right; here's latest Wall Street downgrade ...

Altria downgraded as analyst questions Philip Morris merger and further scrutiny of Juul's vaping ads

Piper Jaffray lowered its price target on shares of Altria to $49 from $64.

So even after lowering his target, that analyst's target is $5 above current levels.

Given their P/E of ~13 and their dividend yield, MO is is one of the most sanely priced stocks out there. I know people here love to hate on BT, but one's own emotions should be disregarded when it comes to investments.

 

[iVapeDIY]

Given their P/E of ~13 and their dividend yield, MO is is one of the most sanely priced stocks out there.

Having a PE like a tech stock is not sane. Citigroup predicted Altria's situation a while back ...

Altria stock falls after Citi downgrades on concerns about Juul investment

Citi Research analyst Adam Spielman downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, writing that the company's $12.8 billion investment in Juul "is effectively signaling [Altria] is doubtful about the future of its core business." He thinks it's likely that the deal is "destroying value" but said its "impossible to be sure" given a lack of financial details provided by Altria's management. Altria "says it's a tech-style multiple," Spielman wrote. "Trouble is, investors own MO for predictability and cash. If they want tech-style growth and risk, surely they'd want to pick their own stock?"​

 

[zoiDman]

As cited in article, see See New England Journal Of Medicine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1814130

More details ...

OK... Now we have a Spreadsheet supporting a Bar Graph. I suppose Next it will be a Pie Chart to support the Spreadsheet?

LOL. But my 1st Question still Hasn't been answered.

"How, exactly, is "Prevalence of Vaping" quantitatively defined?"

I, fortunately, know where the Data came from...

"METHODS

Data for this study come from the annual Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a nationallyrepresentative sample of students in the contiguous U.S. States. Personnel from the University of Michigan administered the surveys in classrooms throughout the U.S., and students selfcompleted questionnaires during a normal class period. The project has been approved by the University of Michigan Institutional Review Board. Data for this study come from independent samples of 12th, 10th, and 8th grade students surveyed in 2017 and 2018. Overall student response rates for these two years were 80% in 12th grade, 85% in 10th grade, and 88% in 8th grade. The great majority of non-response was due to student absence. For a detailed description of the survey methodology see Bachman et al."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc1814130/suppl_file/nejmc1814130_appendix.pdf

And I know how the Percentiles were calculated...

Vaping Measures Introduction to all vaping questions:

“To ‘vape’ is to use a device such as a vape-pen, an e-cigarette, an e-hookah, or e-vaporizer to inhale a mist or vapor into the lungs. Have you ever vaped?” Youth who report ever vaping are then asked the following questions on substance vaped. Vaped Nicotine On how many occasions (if any) have you vaped NICOTINE during the last 30 days? Coded 0 for response of “0” and 1 for response of “1-2” 3-5” 6-9” “20-30” or “40 or more” Vaped Just Flavoring On how many occasions (if any) have you vaped just FLAVORING, without any nicotine or marijuana in it during the last 30 days? Coded 0 for response of “0” and 1 for response of “1-2” 3-5” 6-9” “20-30” or “40 or more” Vaped Nicotine or Flavoring Coded 1 if either of the two above measures are coded 1, and 0 if both measures are 0.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc1814130/suppl_file/nejmc1814130_appendix.pdf

And it is in the Calculation that I have Issues/Concerns.

Because let me ask you this...

Does an Individual who takes 2 Hits on an e-Cigarettes and then Never vapes again receive the weighting as an Individual who vapes a Pod a Day?

Doesn't Everyone end up in that 20.9 Percentile? Regardless of Amount Used. And Regardless if they merely Tried an e-Cigarette once and No Longer use one. Or if they are Burning thru $300/Month in Vape Carts?

The Bar Graph above Isn't Necessarily Wrong. But it Presents a Very Distorted Representation as to what is Actually going on.

Because Clearly there is a Difference between someone who Tries something out of Curiosity or Peer Pressure, and than does Not Continue to use it. And someone who is 24/7 365 user of a Product.

But the Above Bar Graph doesn't Quantify this. And Allows the Reader to draw their Own Conclusions. Which is a Fundamentally Flawed use of Statistics. Unless the Intent was to Deceive and or Inflate a result.

Look, I know you have a Thing about JUUL. Because you seem to run Lots of Threads Slamming them. And that OK. You are Entitled to your Opinion.

I just Don't like the use of Deceptive or Misleading "Statistical Methods". And I wish More people would Pull Back the Curtain sometimes when people present them with a Naked Statistic.

Because a Naked Statistic tell you Absolutely Nothing. And can be Used for about any means. Be them Good. Or be them Misleading.

 

[zoiDman]

OK... Now we have a Spreadsheet supporting a Bar Graph. I suppose Next it will be a Pie Chart to support the Spreadsheet?

LOL. But my 1st Question still Hasn't been answered.

"How, exactly, is "Prevalence of Vaping" quantitatively defined?"

I, fortunately, know where the Data came from...

"METHODS

Data for this study come from the annual Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a nationallyrepresentative sample of students in the contiguous U.S. States. Personnel from the University of Michigan administered the surveys in classrooms throughout the U.S., and students selfcompleted questionnaires during a normal class period. The project has been approved by the University of Michigan Institutional Review Board. Data for this study come from independent samples of 12th, 10th, and 8th grade students surveyed in 2017 and 2018. Overall student response rates for these two years were 80% in 12th grade, 85% in 10th grade, and 88% in 8th grade. The great majority of non-response was due to student absence. For a detailed description of the survey methodology see Bachman et al."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc1814130/suppl_file/nejmc1814130_appendix.pdf

And I know how the Percentiles were calculated...

Vaping Measures Introduction to all vaping questions:

“To ‘vape’ is to use a device such as a vape-pen, an e-cigarette, an e-hookah, or e-vaporizer to inhale a mist or vapor into the lungs. Have you ever vaped?” Youth who report ever vaping are then asked the following questions on substance vaped. Vaped Nicotine On how many occasions (if any) have you vaped NICOTINE during the last 30 days? Coded 0 for response of “0” and 1 for response of “1-2” 3-5” 6-9” “20-30” or “40 or more” Vaped Just Flavoring On how many occasions (if any) have you vaped just FLAVORING, without any nicotine or marijuana in it during the last 30 days? Coded 0 for response of “0” and 1 for response of “1-2” 3-5” 6-9” “20-30” or “40 or more” Vaped Nicotine or Flavoring Coded 1 if either of the two above measures are coded 1, and 0 if both measures are 0.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc1814130/suppl_file/nejmc1814130_appendix.pdf

And it is in the Calculation that I have Issues/Concerns.

Because let me ask you this...

Does an Individual who takes 2 Hits on an e-Cigarettes and then Never vapes again receive the weighting as an Individual who vapes a Pod a Day?

Doesn't Everyone end up in that 20.9 Percentile? Regardless of Amount Used. And Regardless if they merely Tried an e-Cigarette once and No Longer use one. Or if they are Burning thru $300/Month in Vape Carts?

The Bar Graph above Isn't Necessarily Wrong. But it Presents a Very Distorted Representation as to what is Actually going on.

Because Clearly there is a Difference between someone who Tries something out of Curiosity or Peer Pressure, and than does Not Continue to use it. And someone who is 24/7 365 user of a Product.

But the Above Bar Graph does Quantify this. And Allows the Reader to draw their Own Conclusions. Which is a Fundamentally Flawed use of Statistics. Unless the Intent was to Deceive and or Inflate a result.

Look, I know you have a Thing about JUUL. Because you seem to run Lots of Threads Slamming them. And that OK. You are Entitled to your Opinion.

I just Don't like the use of Deceptive or Misleading "Statistical Methods". And I wish More people would Pull Back the Curtain sometimes when people present them with a Naked Statistic.

Because a Naked Statistic tell you Absolutely Nothing. And can be Used for about any means. Be them Good. Or be them Misleading.

ETA:

Don't get me Wrong. As Many people here know, I am about the Last Person to Promote or Condone Teen e-Cigarette Use. But I am Also a Realist.

And know that Kids are going to Try/Do things.

It's Not the Kids who try something and then Don't continue that Worry Me. It's the ones who Try Things and then they become dependent on them for either Physical or Physiological reason that is worrying.

But that Percentile is Significantly Less than what the Above Bar Graph or Spreadsheet imply.

And that is what the Narrative should be Centered on.

 

[iVapeDIY]

Because a Naked Statistic tell you Absolutely Nothing. And can be Used for about any means. Be them Good. Or be them Misleading.

E-cigarettes: Juul warned by FDA about its marketing practices - CNN

"We've also put the industry on notice: If the disturbing rise in youth e-cigarette use continues, especially through the use of flavors that appeal to kids, we'll take even more aggressive action."

In November, the FDA revealed that vaping had increased nearly 80% among high schoolers and 50% among middle schoolers since a year earlier. Public health experts have said that Juul has largely propelled the rise, commanding about 75% of the e-cigarette market in the United States.​

The FDA are referencing the same New England Journal Of Medicine study. So unless Juul has scientific evidence to contradict the study to "appease the FDA", sanctions, including product seizure, seems imminent.

 

[zoiDman]

E-cigarettes: Juul warned by FDA about its marketing practices - CNN

"We've also put the industry on notice: If the disturbing rise in youth e-cigarette use continues, especially through the use of flavors that appeal to kids, we'll take even more aggressive action."

In November, the FDA revealed that vaping had increased nearly 80% among high schoolers and 50% among middle schoolers since a year earlier. Public health experts have said that Juul has largely propelled the rise, commanding about 75% of the e-cigarette market in the United States.​

The FDA are referencing the same New England Journal Of Medicine study. So unless Juul has scientific evidence to contradict the study to "appease the FDA", sanctions, including product seizure, seems imminent.

Once again. Naked Statistics.

Dig a little Deeper instead of just Posting Media Articles and I think you will understand what I am Say'n.