Get ready for the fallout
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First of all, bull apples.
Second, kids should not be smoking, Or Vaping.
And why anyone would want to smoke after experiencing vaping, is beyond explanation.
Second, kids should not be smoking, Or Vaping.
And why anyone would want to smoke after experiencing vaping, is beyond explanation.
Does anyone have access to the full text study on this?
From what I understand, according to this article anyway, some kids (who are likely future smokers) are trying e-cigarettes first rather than tobacco cigarettes. That doesn't necessarily mean that e-cigarettes get kids to smoke who otherwise wouldn't, though there's no doubt they'll try to spin it that way anyway.
Also:
...overall, the percentage of youths who reported an intention to smoke declined "significantly" in the 2013 survey.
Doesn't that mean they're achieving their goals anyway? I mean, if the real goal here is to reduce smoking as much as possible, shouldn't they be celebrating? By turning this whole study into another way to demonize e-cigs, rather than realizing their success in smoking reduction, they are showing quite plainly that their real goal is not to reduce smoking, but to demonize e-cigs.
Excuse my language, but the CDC needs to yank their heads out of their rear ends, pronto!
I, for one, am tired of this crap!And this:
With tobacco and e-cig companies marketing heavily to young people...
Ugh! They do not!
Dragon, I can only find the CDC press release. More than a quarter-million youth who had never smoked a cigarette used e-cigarettes in 2013 | Press Release | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC
Expect to see this plastered everywhere too. I also cannot find the original study, though.
Actually, here is a link (intentionally broken) to the Abstract. I don't have a login, so I can't see the full PDF.
htt
p://ntr.oxfordjournals.
org/content/early/2014/08/18/ntr.ntu166.abstract?sid=51e7d867-1c18-418e-bd5f-9e0f75360ef2
htt
p://ntr.oxfordjournals.
org/content/early/2014/08/18/ntr.ntu166.abstract?sid=51e7d867-1c18-418e-bd5f-9e0f75360ef2
Thank you. It says that there is an association between e-cig use and intent to smoke, but it does not clarify whether there was intent to smoke prior to e-cig use. That is an important distinction to make.
Well - if a young person has been thinking about smoking and has decided to vape instead then she/he has made a good choice. A better choice would be to do neither, however. Why get a habit when you don't have one?
Reads like a page from "How to lie with statistics" to me. The fallacy is know as "silly null" in the statistical world. It works like this: you pretend to perform a statistical test that shows the data support your hypothesis. The catch is you compare your hypothesis against one (the null) that is inappropriate, overbroad, obviously false, or plainly wrong.
The source article states «Ever e-cigarette users had higher adjusted odds of having smoking intentions than never users,» which means they compared the vapers against those who never used any form of nicotine. Of course youth who vape are more likely to experiment with all forms of tobacco than those who have no interest in nicotine; you don't need stats to decide on that point. More relevant questions that should have been asked are:
- Would these vapers had started smoking if vaping was not available?
- Are there differences in "smoking intentions" if you compared ever-vapers to ever-smokers or ever-tobacco use?
The painfully obvious fact that youth smoking prevalence and "intention" have gone down over time is immediately evident from the NYTS survey results and remains maliciously ignored by CDC. This direct and incontrovertible finding blatantly contradicts any statement as to the "gateway" effect of vaping, no matter what twisted stats CDC throws at the data.
The source article states «Ever e-cigarette users had higher adjusted odds of having smoking intentions than never users,» which means they compared the vapers against those who never used any form of nicotine. Of course youth who vape are more likely to experiment with all forms of tobacco than those who have no interest in nicotine; you don't need stats to decide on that point. More relevant questions that should have been asked are:
- Would these vapers had started smoking if vaping was not available?
- Are there differences in "smoking intentions" if you compared ever-vapers to ever-smokers or ever-tobacco use?
The painfully obvious fact that youth smoking prevalence and "intention" have gone down over time is immediately evident from the NYTS survey results and remains maliciously ignored by CDC. This direct and incontrovertible finding blatantly contradicts any statement as to the "gateway" effect of vaping, no matter what twisted stats CDC throws at the data.
So the CDC is now saying that e-cigarette use is NOT a gateway to smoking! After all, a quarter-million kids tried e-cigarettes, NONE of whom went on to smoke the stinkies!
Given that in recent years, 4000 kids/day tried cigarettes for the first time (1.4 Million/year) I would have expected the CDC to be overjoyed! E-cigarettes are DEFINITELY putting a dent in youth smoking!
As a former smoker, I cannot imagine a never-smoked-a-cigarette adolescent even thinking about trying a tobacco cigarette after vaping, even if their e-cigarette and favorite e-juice (assuming it has nicotine in it, which it probably doesn't) was not available.
Even if they did try one I doubt they would stick with it. They are so yesterday. I can't recall the last time I have seen an underage person smoking a tobacco cigarette.
Maybe I am getting too old (34) [emoji30]
Even if they did try one I doubt they would stick with it. They are so yesterday. I can't recall the last time I have seen an underage person smoking a tobacco cigarette.
Maybe I am getting too old (34) [emoji30]
This is just a re-iteration of the Glantz study around the first of the year Dec.'13, where they put forth the gateway argument. ASH then from Wales and Scotland had the massive study of kids and found 0.3 of the 'never smoked' used ecigs and only 3.8% who never smoked tried an ecig at least once. See:
Bill Godshall Update 2014-07-16
http://www.ashwales.org.uk/creo_fil...nd_e-cigarettes_in_wales_final_march_2014.pdf
These studies got big play in the 'comments' and I'm guessing some ANTZ thought we can't let that stand - hence a 'new study' only verifying what they originally thought and likely just as junky as the first one. The CDC wants to claim a 'victory' in reducing teen smoking, but that's cross purposes with the deeming, so they speak with 'forked tongue' (with the greatest respect for Native Americans' insight on that).
Bill Godshall Update 2014-07-16
http://www.ashwales.org.uk/creo_fil...nd_e-cigarettes_in_wales_final_march_2014.pdf
These studies got big play in the 'comments' and I'm guessing some ANTZ thought we can't let that stand - hence a 'new study' only verifying what they originally thought and likely just as junky as the first one. The CDC wants to claim a 'victory' in reducing teen smoking, but that's cross purposes with the deeming, so they speak with 'forked tongue' (with the greatest respect for Native Americans' insight on that).
I can't see the article they quote either - so I did my own :
Depending on the query - you get 24,000 replies +/- 500 24.2k answered re: tried-cigs, but only 23.5k answered both that and the e-cig and the 'intend to try a cig in next year"
Kids who had tried Cigs - 25.7% (17.5k / 23.5k)
Kids who had tried E-cigs - 6.66% (1563 / 23.5k)
Kids who had tried e-cigs - 90.4%(1413) had tried cigs, 9.6% (150) had not tried cigs (out of 1563)
Kids who had tried cigs - 43.5% said they expected to try a cig in the next year
Kids who had tried e-cigs - 61.85% said they expected to try a cig in the next year
So 90% of these 'tried e-cig' kids had also tried cigs - So largely kids who tried both cigs and e-cigs are expecting they will try cigs again - moreso than the kids who had tried cigs but not e-cigs?
Of course the "tried Cigs" = 17.5K and the 'tried E-cigs" = 1.4K and, 90% of that 1.4K are included in the 17.5K
Sorry I'm using CDC's epidemiology software and haven't figured out how to ask better questions than that.
I'd look at - How many are current smokers - admitting they will of course be using cigs again ....
How many of those that tried e-cigs but not cigs had tried cigars or hookahs
Edit - oops I've included "expected to try cigs in next year" thats not the same as "Intended" is it? But its as close as the survey gets.
Depending on the query - you get 24,000 replies +/- 500 24.2k answered re: tried-cigs, but only 23.5k answered both that and the e-cig and the 'intend to try a cig in next year"
Kids who had tried Cigs - 25.7% (17.5k / 23.5k)
Kids who had tried E-cigs - 6.66% (1563 / 23.5k)
Kids who had tried e-cigs - 90.4%(1413) had tried cigs, 9.6% (150) had not tried cigs (out of 1563)
Kids who had tried cigs - 43.5% said they expected to try a cig in the next year
Kids who had tried e-cigs - 61.85% said they expected to try a cig in the next year
So 90% of these 'tried e-cig' kids had also tried cigs - So largely kids who tried both cigs and e-cigs are expecting they will try cigs again - moreso than the kids who had tried cigs but not e-cigs?
Of course the "tried Cigs" = 17.5K and the 'tried E-cigs" = 1.4K and, 90% of that 1.4K are included in the 17.5K
Sorry I'm using CDC's epidemiology software and haven't figured out how to ask better questions than that.
I'd look at - How many are current smokers - admitting they will of course be using cigs again ....
How many of those that tried e-cigs but not cigs had tried cigars or hookahs
Edit - oops I've included "expected to try cigs in next year" thats not the same as "Intended" is it? But its as close as the survey gets.
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I'm pretty old too - but this summer I've spent a lot of time with young nieces and nephews - taking them on hikes and to parks and beaches and pools. Mostly you don't see the teens around at all - you only see the 2-12 years olds - but one park had a very active set of basketball courts with lots of 15-20 year old boys. I had a look around and found 2 butts, no cigarette boxes, 2 packages from "swisher sweets cigarillos" 2-to a package, one grape flavored and the other watermelon-rum. By the waste-can. I never saw anyone smoking or vaping. A skateboard park was all 12-17 boys and I saw no butts or smoking or vaping.
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More kids turning to tobacco that tried vaping.
washingtonpost.
com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/08/25/adolescents-who-use-e-cigarettes-are-much-more-likely-to-try-tobacco-cdc-says/
Does anybody actually believe the CDC these days?
Vaping may be a try-out for some kids, but it doesn't provide the "kick" that smoking tobacco cigarettes does. That DOESN'T mean that vaping leads to smoking; it means vaping wasn't good enough, so they went for the real deal.
Someday, when those tobacco-smoking kids are older and sick, or broke or tired or can't breathe, then maybe they will turn to vaping, if it's still available.
Excellent research! thank you very much for digging up the numbers.
To summarize these results just as if your IQ were normal, you'd express everything in terms of population percentages (assuming the survey was representative of the population, which I have my doubts about). Anyways, CDC was able to find 150 kids, out of 24K surveyed, who had tried vaping but had not tried smoking. That's 0.6% of the population, very much in line with the findings from ASH Scotland (0.3%).
At the same time they also found 17.5K who smoked, but the CDC paper obfuscates this concerning reality and makes a big fuss about the 0.6% who vape. Nobody wants to face the reality that all the anti-smoking measures, all the lies, the propaganda, the fear mongering, "denormalization", taxes, advertising bans, "protect the children" nonsense... none of the ANTZ moves are effective at preventing a huge number of kids from "trying" smoking. In fact, the only thing ANTZ propaganda actually managed to create is a huge windfall for their own industry and the government.
Further, from the NYTS numbers, 7612 kids who previously tried smoking (32% of the population) said they intended to try smoking, and only 966 kids who previously tried vaping (4%).
The CDC report is clearly an act of academic misconduct and malicious malpractice in public health. CDC perverts the analysis and misrepresents the data, hides the true results of the NYTS survey and spins the discourse to pursue an agenda contrary to the interest of the public. If this is not misuse of public funds, I don't know what is.
This idea that one cigarette is too many is the inherent bias in this sort of research.
Show me the vaper that smokes more now that they are vaping.
With never-smokers, this would be plausible, but compare the use of a never-smoker who has a few smokes to those from say 20 years ago. I hypothesize that they will be smoking far less than their earlier counterparts. If you are anti-smoking and realist, this would be seen as a great thing. If you are anti-smoking and wishful thinker, this could be treated as something dreadfully has gone wrong.
All kids I have met, heard of, or observe will experiment with 'habits' that adults take for granted and which appear, at least on the surface, to make them successful (socially, even professionally). The anti type adults always, and routinely, come off as out of touch puritans who haven't walked even a foot in the shoes of a 'normal user.' Instead they preach judgments that sound great for those who enjoy superficial claims, but sound wishful for those living in reality. Not to mention, with just a little digging, all adults (without exception) have own habits that are arguable weaknesses to living well in civilized, albeit idealistic, society.
Show me the vaper that smokes more now that they are vaping.
With never-smokers, this would be plausible, but compare the use of a never-smoker who has a few smokes to those from say 20 years ago. I hypothesize that they will be smoking far less than their earlier counterparts. If you are anti-smoking and realist, this would be seen as a great thing. If you are anti-smoking and wishful thinker, this could be treated as something dreadfully has gone wrong.
All kids I have met, heard of, or observe will experiment with 'habits' that adults take for granted and which appear, at least on the surface, to make them successful (socially, even professionally). The anti type adults always, and routinely, come off as out of touch puritans who haven't walked even a foot in the shoes of a 'normal user.' Instead they preach judgments that sound great for those who enjoy superficial claims, but sound wishful for those living in reality. Not to mention, with just a little digging, all adults (without exception) have own habits that are arguable weaknesses to living well in civilized, albeit idealistic, society.
Would love to see the decline in smokers over the same period... would be quite telling if it was more than 250k.
to me that would show a quarter million people who were saved from smoking by using eCigs instead. Kids or not.
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