Actually, as far as snus is concerned, the numbers are probably high. Most research did not find an increased cancer risk with snus use compared to non-tobacco use for head (oral), neck or gastro-intestinal cancers. (One source: http://nzhta.chmeds.ac.nz/publications/smokeless_tobacco.pdf) One study found a small increase in pancreatic cancer, but that study has been said to have some flaws.
Most of the info I have found on snus and smokeless tobacco I got from tobaccoharmreduction.org and tobaccoanalysis.com. It's a lot of reading, especially the tobacco Harm Reduction 2010 Yearbook. But the information is there.
Ok, at the risk of overstaying my welcome & since you asked, I found this to add:
I've found several sources (dentist, anti-tobacco sites) that claim there are 30,000-40,000 cases of oral cancer reported in the U.S. per year. Over the course of a 65 year adult life, that's a total of 2,600,000 cases of oral cancer (using the highest number.) Pretending the U.S. population stays the same at 300,000,000, that's 2,600,000 / 300,000,000= 0.008 or .08% of the U.S. population could get oral cancer over the next 65 years.
Anti-tobacco groups claim that tobacco users make up 90% of those with oral cancer (including oral cancers in those who also drank alcohol, so it could have been the alcohol). That would make 2,340,000 smokers/tobacco users who got oral cancer, out of 45 million smokers + approx 10,500,000 smokeless users (claimed 3.5% over the age of 18 use ST) which equals 0.19 or 10.9% chance for ALL tobacco users lumped together.
Since ST users number about 23% of smoker numbers and smokers have 2x the chance of oral cancer, that would mean, at most, a 1.25% chance of oral cancer from smokeless tobacco. And that is using the highest estimates. I've seen other studies claming smokers only make up 50% of oral cancer cases, plus a lot of alcohol-related oral cancer gets lumped in with smokers, as well. And that is not accounting for snus ST users, where there has been no link shown between snus use and oral cancer.
Check out this link, as well: http://www.tobaccoharmreduction.org/faq/healtheffectsofst.htm#34
That site is by tobacco control experts who worked to ban indoor smoking, but have come to see the advantages of harm reduction over prohibitionist stances. They have figured it out more scientifically and figure ST users have a 10% - 20% increase in risk from non-ST users. So, if a non-ST user has .008% risk of cancer, 10-20% greater than that is still only a .0096% chance of oral cancer (if my numbers are right.) Even if I'm off, the numbers would still be extremely low.
Most of the info I have found on snus and smokeless tobacco I got from tobaccoharmreduction.org and tobaccoanalysis.com. It's a lot of reading, especially the tobacco Harm Reduction 2010 Yearbook. But the information is there.
Ok, at the risk of overstaying my welcome & since you asked, I found this to add:
I've found several sources (dentist, anti-tobacco sites) that claim there are 30,000-40,000 cases of oral cancer reported in the U.S. per year. Over the course of a 65 year adult life, that's a total of 2,600,000 cases of oral cancer (using the highest number.) Pretending the U.S. population stays the same at 300,000,000, that's 2,600,000 / 300,000,000= 0.008 or .08% of the U.S. population could get oral cancer over the next 65 years.
Anti-tobacco groups claim that tobacco users make up 90% of those with oral cancer (including oral cancers in those who also drank alcohol, so it could have been the alcohol). That would make 2,340,000 smokers/tobacco users who got oral cancer, out of 45 million smokers + approx 10,500,000 smokeless users (claimed 3.5% over the age of 18 use ST) which equals 0.19 or 10.9% chance for ALL tobacco users lumped together.
Since ST users number about 23% of smoker numbers and smokers have 2x the chance of oral cancer, that would mean, at most, a 1.25% chance of oral cancer from smokeless tobacco. And that is using the highest estimates. I've seen other studies claming smokers only make up 50% of oral cancer cases, plus a lot of alcohol-related oral cancer gets lumped in with smokers, as well. And that is not accounting for snus ST users, where there has been no link shown between snus use and oral cancer.
Check out this link, as well: http://www.tobaccoharmreduction.org/faq/healtheffectsofst.htm#34
That site is by tobacco control experts who worked to ban indoor smoking, but have come to see the advantages of harm reduction over prohibitionist stances. They have figured it out more scientifically and figure ST users have a 10% - 20% increase in risk from non-ST users. So, if a non-ST user has .008% risk of cancer, 10-20% greater than that is still only a .0096% chance of oral cancer (if my numbers are right.) Even if I'm off, the numbers would still be extremely low.
Last edited:
