Increase In Cigarette Sales This Year

[englishmick]

http://www.msn.com /en-us/money/markets/why-cigarette-sales-are-rising-in-america/ar-AAfbPVQ?ocid=spartandhp

I did break the link because the extreme goofiness of the contents might be upsetting to people with functional brains.

Some guy called Azer thinks it's because gas prices were down so folks in gas stations had extra money in their pockets. I can see his point.

And then:

"The increase in sales "is dismaying to see," commented Anna Song, a health psychologist and associate professor at the University of California, Merced Health Sciences Research Institute.

Song has a different theory than Azer; she posits that rising use of e-cigarettes may be inspiring a more relaxed attitude around smoking in general.

"There's a lot of literature suggesting there's a link between e-cigarette use and smoking actual cigarettes," Song said. And indeed, "if you think e-cigs are not harmful and are fine, then is it really a big leap to saying that cigarettes are OK?" "

 

[AndriaD]

http://www.msn.com /en-us/money/markets/why-cigarette-sales-are-rising-in-america/ar-AAfbPVQ?ocid=spartandhp

I did break the link because the extreme goofiness of the contents might be upsetting to people with functional brains.

Some guy called Azer thinks it's because gas prices were down so folks in gas stations had extra money in their pockets. I can see his point.

And then:

"The increase in sales "is dismaying to see," commented Anna Song, a health psychologist and associate professor at the University of California, Merced Health Sciences Research Institute.

Song has a different theory than Azer; she posits that rising use of e-cigarettes may be inspiring a more relaxed attitude around smoking in general.

"There's a lot of literature suggesting there's a link between e-cigarette use and smoking actual cigarettes," Song said. And indeed, "if you think e-cigs are not harmful and are fine, then is it really a big leap to saying that cigarettes are OK?" "

What a complete and total idiot. I mean, total ....... It's apparently completely escaped her notice that the "gateway" is AWAY from smoking!

Andria

 

[nicnik]

http://www.msn.com /en-us/money/markets/why-cigarette-sales-are-rising-in-america/ar-AAfbPVQ?ocid=spartandhp

I did break the link because the extreme goofiness of the contents might be upsetting to people with functional brains.

Some guy called Azer thinks it's because gas prices were down so folks in gas stations had extra money in their pockets. I can see his point.

That article links to this:
http://www.ttb.gov/statistics/2015/201507tobacco.pdf

It shows that roll-your-own has gone in the opposite direction. Paying less for gas means less need to save money via RYO.

 

[skoony]

That article links to this:
http://www.ttb.gov/statistics/2015/201507tobacco.pdf

It shows that roll-your-own has gone in the opposite direction. Paying less for gas means less need to save money via RYO.

Good point. In th comments to this story where I had seen it posted
some posited that it might be do to the influx of immigrants from
Mexico. This makes more sense.
Regards
Mike

 

[Bill Godshall]

I've been pointing out the very slight increase (about .5% increase) in US cigarette consumption since February.

The key data table for US tobacco product consumption at
http://www.ttb.gov/statistics/2015/201507tobacco.pdf
is the second table entitled "Removed Taxable including from Puerto Rico" as this represents all taxed tobacco product sales in the US (which excludes tax exempt military bases).

But notice that the slight increase in cigarette consumption during the first seven months of 2015 (from 150 to 151 Billion cigarettes) was more than offset by a sharp decline in large cigar consumption (from 3.9 to 2.9 Billion cigars), a significant decline in small cigar consumption (from 315 to 299 million cigars), and a significant decline in pipe tobacco consumption (from 22 to 21 million pounds).

Please note that 95% of pipe tobacco now sold in the US used to be marketed as RYO tobacco, but most RYO manufacturers renamed their RYO tobacco as pipe tobacco to escape FDA regulation and avoid the large federal excise tax hike (both in 2009) because neither applied to pipe tobacco.

This indicates that some cigarette smokers who had previously switched to cigars and pipe tobacco (which is used as RYO) to save money have switched back to higher priced prepackaged cigarettes this year (or at least are buying more cigarettes than in 2014).

Many economists and Wall St tobacco stock analysts also attributed the slight increase in cigarette sales to the sharp decline in gasoline prices (as smokers had/have more discretionary money to spend).

 

[DrMA]

My interpretation is that people are starting to catch on to the Tobacco ConTrol con, realizing that the dangers of smoking have been widely overblown. This effect was likely triggered by the continuing narrative oozing out of official USA "health" orgs trying to portray smoking as being no more dangerous than inhaling fog (i.e. vaping).

Increasingly shrill but transparently ......ed anti-smoker messaging from TC isn't helping their credibility either. See, for example, a post by CDC Tobacco on social media today:

 

[AndriaD]

Oh god, not my ears! I quite like them!

I suspect they actually mean "hearing loss" but are too stupid/illiterate to actually say that, but they don't mention that hearing loss is inevitable over time.

Andria

 

[ruet]

"There's a lot of literature suggesting there's a link between e-cigarette use and smoking actual cigarettes," Song said. And indeed, "if you think e-cigs are not harmful and are fine, then is it really a big leap to saying that cigarettes are OK?" "

Or:
"We've been doing a good job at demonizing e-cigarettes for so long now that it's not really a big leap to think people would choose the real thing"

 

[EBates]

Well my guess is that the govment propaganda has succeeded, and to preserve their health folks are going back to smoking. The Taxman, FDA, CDC, AMA, et al should be so proud.

 

[Nermal]

I suspect they actually mean "hearing loss" but are too stupid/illiterate to actually say that, . . .

Andria

Nice catch!

 

[Kent C]

Or:
"We've been doing a good job at demonizing e-cigarettes for so long now that it's not really a big leap to think people would choose the real thing"

Exactly right - and pointed out by others in the past - mainly Bill - where the "ecigs may be even worse than cigarettes" Tobacco Control campaign went on and took it's toll on possible prospects/newbies for ecigs - prior to cig increases and ecigs leveling off.

https://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/f...ts-launch-attack-against-vaping-in-sf.639739/

 

[Oliver]

Note - be VERY careful about googling Anna Song.

Speaking as someone who just googled Anna Song in a very public place:

http://www.ucmerced.edu/content/anna-v-song

 

[nicnik]

I've been pointing out the very slight increase (about .5% increase) in US cigarette consumption since February.

The key data table for US tobacco product consumption at
http://www.ttb.gov/statistics/2015/201507tobacco.pdf
is the second table entitled "Removed Taxable including from Puerto Rico" as this represents all taxed tobacco product sales in the US (which excludes tax exempt military bases).

But notice that the slight increase in cigarette consumption during the first seven months of 2015 (from 150 to 151 Billion cigarettes) was more than offset by a sharp decline in large cigar consumption (from 3.9 to 2.9 Billion cigars), a significant decline in small cigar consumption (from 315 to 299 million cigars), and a significant decline in pipe tobacco consumption (from 22 to 21 million pounds).

Please note that 95% of pipe tobacco now sold in the US used to be marketed as RYO tobacco, but most RYO manufacturers renamed their RYO tobacco as pipe tobacco to escape FDA regulation and avoid the large federal excise tax hike (both in 2009) because neither applied to pipe tobacco.

This indicates that some cigarette smokers who had previously switched to cigars and pipe tobacco (which is used as RYO) to save money have switched back to higher priced prepackaged cigarettes this year (or at least are buying more cigarettes than in 2014).

Many economists and Wall St tobacco stock analysts also attributed the slight increase in cigarette sales to the sharp decline in gasoline prices (as smokers had/have more discretionary money to spend).

I combined your suggestion of the second table being the most relevant, and your 95% estimate of what's labeled as pipe tobacco being actual cigarette RYO, and did the math using 727 cigarettes per pound of tobacco, which I got from ROY being advertised as 1.1oz pouch yielding 50 cigs.

I came up with RYO (including the 95% of pipe tobacco) decrease of 662,390,056 cigs, which offsets just under 54% of the 1,232,536,738 increase in cigs. The rest may reflect changes in state laws or enforcement of state laws regarding online sales, among other possiblities.

I would welcome any corrections to either my math or my use of 727 cigs per pound of tobacco.

 

[nicnik]

<snip>

A lot of places in the U.S. have been raising RYO taxes to be more in line with cigarette taxes. RYO is becoming as expensive and has always been less convenient. I'm sure there are plenty of people going back to buying packs of cigarettes after having been using RYO.

 

[rico942]

Song has a different theory than Azer; she posits that rising use of e-cigarettes may be inspiring a more relaxed attitude around smoking in general.

Apparently this person doesn't get out much ...

Light a cigarette, exhale some vapor, or even blow the steam from your coffee, and you will be assaulted immediately in California. The peasants with pitchforks and torches will storm your castle ...

 

[DrMA]

Note - be VERY careful about googling Anna Song.

Speaking as someone who just googled Anna Song in a very public place:

http://www.ucmerced.edu/content/anna-v-song

Haha! I like the other one better.

Anyways, not even the one mentioned in the article looks like the blinkered sociopath she sounds.

 

[Katya]

My interpretation is that people are starting to catch on to the Tobacco ConTrol con

Or perhaps people are finally starting to catch on to the Big Government Control con, realizing that they have been lied to for years about pretty much everything--from tobacco and global cooling/global warming to non-fat foods.

 

[AndriaD]

Maybe they're finally taking the attitude that I had, before I discovered vaping:

"IT'S MY DAMN BODY AND I'LL SMOKE IF I DAMN WELL WANT TO!" I still have that attitude, except swap the "smoke" for "vape". And they can all kiss any part of my anatomy that strikes their fancy.

Andria

 

[englishmick]

I combined your suggestion of the second table being the most relevant, and your 95% estimate of what's labeled as pipe tobacco being actual cigarette RYO, and did the math using 727 cigarettes per pound of tobacco, which I got from ROY being advertised as 1.1oz pouch yielding 50 cigs.

I came up with RYO (including the 95% of pipe tobacco) decrease of 662,390,056 cigs, which offsets just under 54% of the 1,232,536,738 increase in cigs. The rest may reflect changes in state laws or enforcement of state laws regarding online sales, among other possiblities.

I would welcome any corrections to either my math or my use of 727 cigs per pound of tobacco.

I'll take your word for it on the math. I was wondering whether any of the observed drop in cigarette sales could be explained by growth in the use of black market untaxed cigarettes. I couldn't see where that was taken into account in the source documents on cigarette sales.

One thing I did get from this was that it's not a simple equation, more e-cigs, less smoking. Gas prices, taxes, falling wages, where cigarettes are sold, all sorts of factors come in.

 

[skoony]

The rest may reflect changes in state laws or enforcement of state laws regarding online sales, among other possiblities.

I was going to say what nicnik posted below.

A lot of places in the U.S. have been raising RYO taxes to be more in line with cigarette taxes. RYO is becoming as expensive and has always been less convenient. I'm sure there are plenty of people going back to buying packs of cigarettes after having been using RYO.

Here in Minnesota they went after RYO and the little cigars packed like cigarettes.
the big cry of the children and the flavored cigars of course was enough reason
in and of itself. This completely denied the evidence that every time they increased
taxes on cigarettes sales in RYO and little cigars went up every time and predictably
so. As far as the flavors from personal experience I can say aside from cherry and menthol
all other flavors offered tasted like flavored talcum powder on the tongue. They were
awful. The only reason to use them is to differentiate your brand of choice from someone
else's.

Regards
Mike