JUUL sales still skyrocketing, Big Tobacco vape sales remain flat

[Bill Godshall]

I've gone through all US tobacco sales reports from Wells Fargo's Bonnie Herzog in the past year, and have compiled (below) Nielsen data for sales of JUUL and for total e-cigs (i.e. JUUL + Big Tobacco's e-cigs) in the US.

Importantly, while Nielsen doesn't track sales of premium vapor products and e-liquid sold at the 10,000 vape shops and/or online, Bonnie has estimated that $3.5 Billion of PVs and e-liquid will be sold in the US in 2018.

Bonnie's reports don't provide Nielsen sales data for each 4 week period, but rather provide sales data for the Past 52 weeks (one year) prior to each report date.

Notably, according to Nielsen data, JUUL has sold $1.1092 Billion in the past year, and has more than doubled Nielsen tracked e-cig sales in one year (from $1B to $2.1+B), as sales of Big Tobacco e-cigs have remained flat at $1B for the past several years.

Nielsen data
US Sales ($M) of JUUL & E-cigs in the past 52 weeks ending on
7/15/2017
$126.3 JUUL, $1,015.7 E-cigs
8/12/2017
$147.8 JUUL, $1,051.4 E-cigs
9/9/2017
$168.0 JUUL, $1,084.6 E-cigs
10/7/2017
$193.7 JUUL, $1,118.6 E-cigs
11/4/2017
$224.6 JUUL, $1,155.9 E-cigs
12/2/2017
$267.1 JUUL, $1,203.5 E-cigs
12/30/2017
$322.8 JUUL, $1,263.7 E-cigs
1/27/2018
$387.3 JUUL, $1,348.0 E-cigs
2/24/2018
$454.1 JUUL, $1,433.2 E-cigs
3/24/2018
$540.8 JUUL, $1,529.8 E-cigs
4/21/2018
$649.8 JUUL, $1,647.6 E-cigs
5/18/2018
$784.4 JUUL, $1,792.9 E-cigs
6/16/2018
$942.6 JUUL, $1,961.6 E-cigs
7/14/2018
$1,109.2 JUUL, $2,131.7 E-cigs

But since Bonnie has repeatedly stated that Nielsen doesn’t capture 20%-25% of e-cig sales, and since Nielsen doesn’t capture sales of JUUL at vape shops or online, actual sales of JUUL could be 30%-40% higher (than Nielsen data), and actual sales of e-cigs could be 25%-30% higher (than Nielsen data).

If JUUL maintains 70.5% of e-cig market share (as occurred in the past 4 weeks) for the rest of 2018, >$2B of JUUL will be sold in 2018, and >$3B of e-cigs will be sold in 2018 ($1B more than Bonnie’s January 2018 estimate of $2.0B), in addition to Bonnie’s estimated $3.5B in sales of PVs and e-liquid, for a total of >$6.5B in vapor product sales in the US in 2018.

Also note that Big Tobacco's overall vapor market share has declined during the past year, as the estimated $1.2B in Big Tobacco vapor sales (i.e. Nielsen sales data + 20%) this year accounts for only 18% of the estimated $6.5B in overall vapor product sales.

But since PVs and e-liquid cost <50% of the cost of cigarettes and Big Tobacco's e-cigs (in cigarette equivalents), Big Tobacco actually has <10% of the US vapor market share (in cigarette equivalents).

 

[dripster]

If you can ignore the "M" in "$M" the figures at the bottom of that list are pretty close to how much I've been spending on American made mech mods and RDAs monthly over the past 15 months.

 

[Bill Godshall]

JUUL released its rapidly growing monthly sales data (and its comparably tiny monthly marketing expenditures) in response to Democrat MA AG Healey's very public accusation (but no evidence) that JUUL has been illegally target marketing to youth.
Statement from Matt David, JUUL Labs Chief Communications Officer, Regarding the Press Conference Held by the Massachusetts Attorney General

Notice that after Democrat US Senator Chuck Schumer launched the first public attack on JUUL in October 2017
(accusing JUUL of target marketing to youth, and claiming JUUL had addicted many high school students, but providing no evidence), which was followed by several dozen news articles repeating Schumer's unsubstantiated allegations as factual (during the last several months of 2017), sales of JUUL in the US began to skyrocket.

JUUL experienced another jump in sales after FDA Cmsnr Scott Gottlieb repeated those same unsubstantiated accusations about and against JUUL in the spring of 2018.

 

[Rossum]

Notice that after Democrat US Senator Chuck Schumer launched the first public attack on JUUL in October 2017 (accusing JUUL of target marketing to youth, and claiming JUUL had addicted many high school students, but providing no evidence), which was followed by several dozen news articles repeating Schumer's unsubstantiated allegations as factual (during the last several months of 2017), sales of JUUL in the US began to skyrocket.

Money can't buy adverting like that!

 

[Bill Godshall]

Wells Fargo's Bonnie Herzog just issued her latest 4 week update (as of August 11) on Nielsen data for tobacco and vapor product sales in the US, which found $1.2869 Billion of JUUL sales in the past 52 weeks (up from $1.1092 Billion in the 52 weeks prior to July 14, 2018), and a total of $2.3101 Billion of E-cigarette sales (i.e. JUUL plus Big Tobacco's cigalike e-cigs), up from $2.1317 in the 52 week prior to July 14.

Bonnie has also changed her estimated US vapor sales in 2018 from $5.5 Billion to $6.6 Billion.
Her 2018 estimate of e-cigarette sales (i.e. JUUL and Big Tobacco cigalike e-cigs) increased from $2 Billion to $3.8 Billion, while her estimate of premium vaporizers and e-liquid sales at vape shops and online decreased from $3.5 Billion to $2.8 Billion.

She provided no explanation why her estimated sales of premium vaporizers and e-liquid declined from $3.5 Billion to $2.8 Billion, and she provided no explanation why her estimated sales of JUUL and Big Tobacco cigalike e-cigs increased from $2 Billion to $3.8 Billion, but the latter change was clearly due to JUUL's skyrocketing sales.

 

[Rossum]

She provided no explanation why her estimated sales of premium vaporizers and e-liquid declined from $3.5 Billion to $2.8 Billion

I would guess it's at least in part a result of declining prices (reduced margins) on both due to very fierce competition in that space. There's also the popularity of high-nic "salt" e-liquid, which people at a much lower rate than the low-nic, cloud-chasing liquids that were popular recently. And lastly, I think Juul might even be grabbing some market share from people who were using "premium vaporizers" in the past.

Heck, I'm contemplating buying a couple of Juul devices and enough pods to last me 10 days for an upcoming business trip overseas, where I'll be stuck in a trade show booth for five days. Although I've PIF'd my 2015 Juul, I know it's an an excellent "stealth" device that delivers enough nicotine to keep me sane with substantially less frequent use than the devices I normally vape.

 

[Bill Godshall]

I've also heard that many vape shop customers have been buying and using JUUL and/or other nicotine salt pods to supplement their other vaping devices, especially when/where vaping is banned.

A new study found 52% of vapers reported stealth vaping in the past week, revealing the ineffectiveness of unwarranted workplace vaping ban laws and the lack of public concern and complaints about vaping.
E-cigarette users commonly stealth vape in places where e-cigarette use is prohibited=

But of course, the anti vaping authors urged regulators to design more interventions to reduce/prevent stealth vaping.

 

[Rossum]

From the paper linked above:

More research is needed to understand the reasons for stealth vaping and its potential health and safety implications.

Really? More research is needed to understand why people stealth vape?

How about because vaping has been forbidden in many places without a single shred of evidence that it's in any way harmful to bystanders?

 

[stols001]

Man, well sentences like this make me shudder.

"This information could help researchers and regulators to design interventions to minimize the public health impact of stealth vaping."

A) were the vapers surveyed in the study fully informed about the possible expected outcomes. My usual response to "tobacco control" about "anything" would be "nu-huh never."

Also, if you have to GO TO THE SOURCE, i.e. "stealth vapers" to find out if it is even happening and WHERE, like, I'm going to guess the "health consequences are rather MINOR." I mean while it's fair to say, blah blah we don't know about ALL the consequences to the general public, (well, I don't even think that sentence is particularly FAIR to say, but I'm sure it is said) I think it's FAIR to ALSO say, vaping is not really comparable to say, anthrax.

Jeez, what's next at job interviews? "Show me the size of your vape."

Also, "minimize" in the original article was spelled "minimi-se" and like, I'm not really usually that much of a spelling or grammar fanatic, honestly, but if we're going to be talking about parts per jillion of vape in the air and the "impact" that has on Public Health, I'm going to expect you to design and put out a study without SPELLING errors in it, because it does not make me feel at ALL optimistic about your "conclusions."

It also makes you look bad. I mean, I realize (I'm sure) their senior researchers were all on this quizzing about stealth vapers but for the love of God hire a PhD student or something.

Anna

 

[zoiDman]

I wonder what kind of Dent this will put in JUUL's overall sales?

Israel bans Juul e-cigarettes over nicotine concentration

Probably not Huge. But a precedent I Don't Like to see.

 

[Rossum]

Dang. They've gone all Euro-weenie:

A statement by Israel’s Health Ministry said the Juul device was banned because it contains nicotine at a concentration higher than 20 milligrams per millilitre and poses “a grave risk to public health.”

Israel was one of the countries where Juul was going to test-market their next-generation, minor-resistant, bluetooth-enabled product (link).