And soon the Market is trapped in a Self-Spiral. And there Isn't a good way to Correct it.
If it's not working in US doesn't mean it is or will not work in other countries.
...
ZD, it's not that funny to believe that your opinion is the only one that's correct, you know.
Perhaps a Better Question to ask is...
"If it's not working in places like the US, why do we think it will Work in other Countries?"
We need representitve governance, with a system of checks and balances. Any ideas on how this can be achieved?Just say'n that if you Turn the (Tax) Wrench too hard, you Break the Bolt.
It's been seen in the Liquor Market.
It's been seen in the tobacco Market.
It's been seen in the THC Market.
And the Madness is as Black and Grey Markets start to move in, Tax Revenues actually go Down. So the Answer to make up for the Tax Shortfalls is to Raise Taxes. But that just makes the Black and Grey Marks more attractive.
And soon the Market is trapped in a Self-Spiral. And there Isn't a good way to Correct it.
Because when was the Last Time you have heard of a "Sin Tax" being Reduced? Or even someone say'n that we should?
Whether something works in a particular country depends on a lot of factors, like laws, culture, traditions. Queues for example. I've lived in the UK and the US. Queues work a lot better in the UK because people respect the queueing process. In the US people are much more likely to push their way in.
We need representitve governance, with a system of checks and balances. Any ideas on how this can be achieved?
True. But the question remains.
If you Jack Up the Taxes even Higher on Cigarettes in the UK, are you going to have the Desired Effect you are Looking for?
Sure.
A Nation Media that Doesn't look the other way when it sees things that goes Against a Political Agenda. And a Doesn't go to Extremes to Justify things that are Aligned with their Political beliefs.
If the Media was Less Agenda driven, and would tell Both Sides of the story, it would be a Huge part of that Check you/we are Looking For.
I don't know the answer. Maybe the lack of a land border would make it harder for the black market to grow.
The Sad thing is that there Just Isn't a good answer. Everywhere they implement High Taxes on cigarettes, the Same thing happens.
Then... Illegal tobacco trade is £20m market in south-east London | Eastlondonlines
Now... 'Millions' of fake cigarettes seized in UK
I, as well as Many, would Love to see Less People Smoking. And Tax collectors would Love to see more Tax Revenues. But Jacking Up "Sin Taxes" isn't the answer. For either camp.
Yuk.
But in terms of cutting down on the number of smokers it might help a bit. most of the black market customers are probably folks who have smoked for a long time and can't quit. It could cut down on the number of people getting into smoking, and some folks won't be comfortable dabbling in the dark side.
Good picture below of how the media works. The problem is that the most partisan consumers probably believe that their own favorite source of information is right up there at the top center.
In other words we get the media we want. The problem is us not the media. It's delusion to think that if the media was perfect and unbiased we would believe it. There really are media sources at the top center of the picture, but it's hard to shake our own biases and recognize what is real.
View attachment 863985
Personal experience here. Before I switched to vaping a decade ago, I was buying black market cigarettes for several years. When an addict is priced out of their drug through 'legitimate' sources, they'll do what they can to continue their supply. It was to the point that I was paying $70 per week for cigarettes (in 2008 dollars), and that was beyond my means. So, I found a way to pay half as much. Thank gawd for vaping to the rescue.Unfortunately, people who are getting into Smoking, the Youth, are on average the Largest Demographic to purchase Black Market and Illicit Cigarettes.
So yeah, some might be Deterred. But as a Deterrent, it Isn't very Effective.
It all gets down to Money.
Taxes are very high here. It means parents buy smokes before feeding their offspringof course this shouldn't be the only measure to prevent ppl(esp.kids) from smoking.
But still, many ppl will stop if it will not be freely available (and cheap enough to have fun with).
If they'd know it's from the black market, it will prevent a lot of them from trying.