Wells Fargo's Herzog increases 2018 US vapor sales estimate to $5.5 Billion

[Bill Godshall]

Wells Fargo's Bonnie Herzog increased her 2018 US vapor sales estimate from $5.1B to $5.5B (just 4 weeks after she estimated it would be $5.1B). Due to the skyrocketing growth of Juul, Herzog increased her 2018 estimate for sales of cigalike e-cigs from $1.6B to $2B.

Below are Herzog's estimates for vapor sales in the US for both vapor market segments.
2018 $5.5 Billion total, $3.5B PVs & e-liquid, $2.0B cigalike e-cigs
2017 $4.4 Billion total, $3B PVs & e-liquid, $1.4B cigalike e-cigs
2016 $4.1 Billion total, $2.5B PVs & e-liquid, $1.6B cigalike e-cigs
2015 $3.5 Billion total, $2B PVs & e-liquid, $1.5B cigalike e-cigs
2014 $2.5 Billion total, $1.1B PVs & e-liquid, $1.4B cigalike e-cigs

During the last 4 weeks, Juul captured 49.6% of cigalike e-cig sales, as BAT/Reynolds' Vuse declined to 20.5%, as Altria's Mark Ten declined to 11.4%, as Imperial's Blu declined to 8.6%, as JTI's Logic declined to 5.4%, and as NJOY declined to 1.8%.

Four weeks ago, I reported Herzog's sales estimates 2018 and the past four years at
Herzog projects $5.1 Billion in US vapor sales in 2018, up from $4.4 Billion in 2017

 

[Rossum]

Wow! At that rate, it seems she's predicting that Juul will have sales of nearly a billion dollars this year..?

I realize that Juul is merchandised in the same way as cigalikes, but should it really be considered one? To me, it's a svelte pod-mod.

 

[Bill Godshall]

Herzog classified Juul in the cigalike e-cig market segment largely because of its huge sales increase and because Nielsen tracks sales of Juul.

I think Juul belongs in the cigalike e-cig category because Juul emits 55-60mg/ml of nicotine (which is even higher than Vuse's 45mg/ml, and Mark Ten's 35mg/ml) and has a small e-liquid tank (similar to other cigalike e-cigs).

Its also nice to see (IMO) a cigalike type e-cig made by a small start up company stealing market share from Big Tobacco's cigalike e-cigs.

Unfortunately, I suspect Juul will be owned by one of the large tobacco companies by the end of this year.