The principal value of the ecig to tobacco corporations is that it is a win-win investment. If ecigs survive regulation and taxation, the investment pays off. If they don't, then cigarette sales revive and it's also a win.
The question is whether backing ecigs or killing ecigs is the best move for a cigarette company. In the end it depends on the market, the regulatory climate and the taxation climate - so there are no easy answers until some of these variables go concrete. In the EU it's a little easier to see what will happen because the regulatory climate is now finalised. What the EU intend is now clear:
- Implement regulations that can, over time, be used to eliminate all ecigs except the obsolete 1st-gen products that tobacco companies sell (minis with cartos), eliminate advertising, eliminate international web sales, and impose a fee structure that only giant corporates can afford.
- This gives the business to the tobacco companies.
- Therefore, at some point, only cigarette firms will be able to sell ecigs; therefore ecigs wil be able to be classed as another form of cigarette.
- This allows all advertising and all web sales to be prohibited.
- The cigarette firms can then make a decision regarding the continuation of the sale of ecigs, if profitable, or to dump them.
For a tobacco company, decisions are based on current and projected profits and nothing else. Essentially, all ecig products apart from minis and small refill bottles are finished in the EU now: they are dead men walking. The cigarette companies will own the business and can act according to which way the market and profits are going. Basically, cigarette sales are protected in the EU (mainly in order to protect tax revenues and pharmaceutical industry income), so ecigs will be viewed as an ancillary product by the cigarette companies who will own the (legal) business. The black market will take over everything else, as most of the small firms will go under.
In the US, when the FDA are allowed to act, the nature of the new regulatory climate will allow the same sort of projection to be made.