Over time you will notice that you'll need to recharge it more often. Or, in a mechanical
mod, it won't seem to hit as hard. When either of this becomes too annoying, it's time to replace the battery.
You also might notice that the battery is starting to get warmer than usual. The internal resistance of the battery rises as it ages and the current
through that resistance causes heat. I typically see the battery lose too much of its capacity (running time) way before the internal resistance goes up too much but if your battery starts feeling appreciably warmer during use, replace it.