Two new large US surveys find 15-21 million vapers, 3.2-4.3 million vapers no longer regularly smoke cigarettes

[Bill Godshall]

Two new large 2013/14 US surveys (presented at SRNT conference) find:
- 15 to 21 million US adults regularly used e-cigs,
- 3.2 - 4.3 million e-cig users no longer regularly smoke cigarettes,
- about 90% of regular e-cig users were/are ever regular cigarette smokers, and
- e-cigs have served as a “gateway” away from cigarettes for exponentially more people than have regularly used e-cigs prior to regular use of cigarettes.

2013/14 survey (NTBM n=30,136) finds 8.7% of US adults (i.e. 21.1 million) reported ever regular use of e-cigs (i.e. >9 days in any month), among whom 89.0% (i.e. 18.7 million) reported ever regular cigarette smoking, among whom 97.1% (i.e. 18.2 million) reported regular e-cig use after regular cigarette smoking, among whom 23.7% (i.e. 4.3 million) reported no longer regularly smoking cigarettes. Finds ever regular cigarette smokers were 17.2 times more likely to transition to ever regular e-cig use than ever regular e-cigs users were to transition to regular cigarette use, which accounted for just 1.3% (i.e. .2 million) of those who reported ever regular use of cigarettes and e-cigs. (POS4-146, page 333) 2013 US Census of 242.5 million adults was used for estimates.
http://www.srnt.org/conferences/SRNT_2015_Abstracts_WEB.pdf
American FactFinder - Results
National Totals: Vintage 2014 - U.S Census Bureau

2013/14 survey (TTM n=11,173) finds 6.1% of US adults (i.e. 14.8 million) self-identified as current regular e-cigarette users, among whom 91.1% (i.e. 13.5 million) reported ever regular use of cigarettes, among whom 97.1% (i.e. 13.1 million) reported regular use of e-cigs after regular use of cigarettes, among whom 24.5% (i.e. 3.2 million) reported no longer regularly smoking cigarettes. Finds smokers were 13.5 times more likely to transition to current regular e-cig use than current regular e-cig users were to transition to regular cigarette use, which accounted for just 1.7% (i.e. .2 million) of those who reported ever regular cigarette use and current e-cig use. (POS4-146, page 333) 2013 US Census of 242.5 million adults was used for estimates.
http://www.srnt.org/conferences/SRNT_2015_Abstracts_WEB.pdf
American FactFinder - Results
National Totals: Vintage 2014 - U.S Census Bureau


I was surprised that Reynolds reported these two new surveys at last week's SRNT conference (but didn't issue a press release), but not that SRNT conference planners relegated this extremely important abstract to a Poster Session and buried it on page 333 of the abstract directory.

POS4-146TOBACCO USE PATTERNS AMONG ADULT CURRENT AND EVERREGULAR E-CIGARETTE USERSGeoffrey M. Curtin*, Kristin M. Marano, Monica J. Graves, James E. Swauger, RAIServices Company, Winston-Salem, NCThe Total tobacco Migration Tracker (TTM; 2008-present) and NationalTobacco Behavior Monitor (NTBM; 2010-present) are cross-sectional surveysthat collect national data on demographic characteristics and behaviors of adulttobacco users, including e-cigarette users. Data from both surveys are sourcedfrom online panels and weighted to reflect U.S. census data. Analyses based ondata from TTM (Q12013 and Q12014) indicate that 6.1% of survey respondents(n=683/11,173) self-define as current regular e-cigarette users. The vast majority ofthese e-cigarette users (91.1%; n=622/683) report ever regularly using traditionalcigarettes, of which nearly all (97.1%; n=604/622) regularly used e-cigarettes afterregularly using traditional cigarettes. Nearly one-quarter of those who regularlyused e-cigarettes after regularly using traditional cigarettes (24.5%; n=148/604)no longer regularly use traditional cigarettes; and, less than 2% of currentregular e-cigarette users (n=12/683) report transitioning to current regular useof traditional cigarettes. Similar findings are provided based on data from NTBM(2013-Q12014), with ever regular users defined as having used e-cigarettes and/or traditional cigarettes on 10 or more days during any 30-day period. Specifically,8.7% of survey respondents (n=2,618/30,136) are ever regular e-cigarette users,with the vast majority (89.0%; 2,330/2,618) reporting ever regular use of traditionalcigarettes; again, nearly all (n=2,119/2,183, with product order not determinedfor 147 respondents) report regularly using e-cigarettes after regularly usingtraditional cigarettes. Nearly one-quarter of those who regularly used e-cigarettesafter regularly using traditional cigarettes (23.7%; n=503/2,119) no longer regularlyuse traditional cigarettes; and, less than 1.5% of ever regular e-cigarette users(n=35/2,618) report transitioning to current regular use of traditional cigarettes.Collectively, these data indicate that the vast majority of e-cigarette users regularlyused traditional cigarettes prior to regularly using e-cigarettes; and, that regulare-cigarette use is not a significant gateway to regular use of traditional cigarettes.FUNDING: RAI Services CompanyCORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Geoffrey Curtin, PhD, Senior Director, RAIServices Company, Regulatory Oversight, 401 North Main Street, Winston-Salem,NC 27102, United States, Phone: 336-741-6999, Email: curting@rjrt.com

 

[Grimwald]

Wow....15 to 21 million...that number is from 2013/2014 and is only going to get bigger. We need to be shouting this from the rooftops. That is more than enough to make any politician sit up and take notice.

Also, can any other product claim to have helped 3-4 million people to stop smoking? Can they claim a 20+% success rate?

 

[Bill Godshall]

Please note that these two surveys didn't ask vapers if they quit smoking, but rather if they were still "regular cigarette users".
One of the surveys defined "regular use" (of cigarettes and/or e-cigs) as use on 10 or more days during any month.
The other survey just asked participants if they considered themselves to be "regular cigarette smokers" and/or "regular e-cig users".

While the majority of vapers (and the vast majority of cigalike users) still smoke cigarettes, vapers who no longer regularly smoke probably consumed 50%-65% of the estimated $1.5 billion in PV and e-liquid sales last year (or about 35%-40% of the estimated $2.5 billion in vapor product sales last year).

 

[Kent C]

What impressed me is the size of the studies, and while not the same, the percentages in each category are within a range that tends to support trends - good trends, imo, and trends that are not represented in the ANTZ studies or in the major lapdog media that report them.

 

[sofarsogood]

What is encouraging to me is the 20 million number. The more the better. Deos the FDA want to infuriate 20 million people? I would hesitate if I were them.

I stared my brother vaping on Christmas day. He claims to still be smoking 4 cigs a day. I was a dual user for 6 weeks and my motivation for going to zero was for the bragging rights. Today I'm glad to be zero cigs. The percent of smokers going to zero cigs will increase as the technology improves, assuming the market isn't crippled.

 

[twgbonehead]

There's also the article mentioned in this thread:
http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/fo...-health-400-000-people-quit-using-e-cigs.html

But the most important finding of the 2014 INPES Health Barometer was that electronic cigarettes do seem to be helping smokers quit, a result backed-up by several scientific studies. After analyzing collected data, researchers were able to estimate that around 0.9% of the French population (around 400,000 people) were able to quit smoking with the help of electronic cigarettes. An average decrease of 8.9 cigarettes a day was also observed in current smokers who are also using e-cigarettes.

To me, an average decrease of nearly half-a-pack per day among all dual users is astounding!

 

[Bill Godshall]

It would be helpful if people posted comments that are actually relevant to the topic of threads.

Seems like some folks insist upon changing the subject of discussion away from the originally posted topics of many/most ECF news threads.

 

[DrMA]

Two new large 2013/14 US surveys (presented at SRNT conference) find:
- 15 to 21 million US adults regularly used e-cigs,
- 3.2 - 4.3 million e-cig users no longer regularly smoke cigarettes,
- about 90% of regular e-cig users were/are ever regular cigarette smokers, and
- e-cigs have served as a “gateway” away from cigarettes for exponentially more people than have regularly used e-cigs prior to regular use of cigarettes.

2013/14 survey (NTBM n=30,136) finds 8.7% of US adults (i.e. 21.1 million) reported ever regular use of e-cigs (i.e. >9 days in any month), among whom 89.0% (i.e. 18.7 million) reported ever regular cigarette smoking, among whom 97.1% (i.e. 18.2 million) reported regular e-cig use after regular cigarette smoking, among whom 23.7% (i.e. 4.3 million) reported no longer regularly smoking cigarettes. Finds ever regular cigarette smokers were 17.2 times more likely to transition to ever regular e-cig use than ever regular e-cigs users were to transition to regular cigarette use, which accounted for just 1.3% (i.e. .2 million) of those who reported ever regular use of cigarettes and e-cigs. (POS4-146, page 333) 2013 US Census of 242.5 million adults was used for estimates.
http://www.srnt.org/conferences/SRNT_2015_Abstracts_WEB.pdf
American FactFinder - Results
National Totals: Vintage 2014 - U.S Census Bureau

2013/14 survey (TTM n=11,173) finds 6.1% of US adults (i.e. 14.8 million) self-identified as current regular e-cigarette users, among whom 91.1% (i.e. 13.5 million) reported ever regular use of cigarettes, among whom 97.1% (i.e. 13.1 million) reported regular use of e-cigs after regular use of cigarettes, among whom 24.5% (i.e. 3.2 million) reported no longer regularly smoking cigarettes. Finds smokers were 13.5 times more likely to transition to current regular e-cig use than current regular e-cig users were to transition to regular cigarette use, which accounted for just 1.7% (i.e. .2 million) of those who reported ever regular cigarette use and current e-cig use. (POS4-146, page 333) 2013 US Census of 242.5 million adults was used for estimates.
http://www.srnt.org/conferences/SRNT_2015_Abstracts_WEB.pdf
American FactFinder - Results
National Totals: Vintage 2014 - U.S Census Bureau


I was surprised that Reynolds reported these two new surveys at last week's SRNT conference (but didn't issue a press release), but not that SRNT conference planners relegated this extremely important abstract to a Poster Session and buried it on page 333 of the abstract directory.

This is truly amazing! With 15-21M users in the US, vaping has the potential to be the most significant political force in the US. We need to do a much better job with proactive lobbying in favor of vaping, as well as begin to rattle the TC cage and call for the prosecution of their lies and fraud.

We have a unique opportunity to eliminate an extremist hate lobby that's been demonizing us for decades based on lies and conjecture. It's time to call for defunding Tobacco Control and prosecuting their crimes against humanity. So long as these fanatics exist, vaping will never be safe and 1.2 Billion smokers worldwide will continue to be denied accurate information about the life-saving technology of e-cigarettes.

 

[Jman8]

2013/14 survey (NTBM n=30,136) finds 8.7% of US adults (i.e. 21.1 million) reported....

This from second paragraph of OP. Snipped to make a point.

I routinely do not get how survey results are not seen as a variation of anecdotal evidence. I'm fairly certain I can anticipate the rebuttal to what I'm getting at here, but the "i.e. 21.1 million" is anecdotal. As is the implication that 8.7% of (ALL) US adults. Anecdotal because the research is seriously (and very obviously) lacking and the facts are literally unfounded. If this were the only survey ever that I felt this way, I would perhaps have an uphill battle. Instead, it is pretty much the case for every single survey piece I have ever encountered, and I have been involved in management of research studies.

We have no human way of knowing how many people use eCigs, and this research's figure is a guesstimate at best. I get that it works for us, and is arguably more helpful than a less calculated guess, but feel scrutinizing this when other anecdotes are seen as worthy of downplaying into oblivion, is sound. At same time, I don't see this sort of commentary changing much. People apparently take comfort in knowing that 8.7% of 30,000 people (or around .01% of the population) are just like them. Why? I'm not sure, but maybe a survey will help answer that question.

 

[caramel]

I routinely do not get how survey results are not seen as a variation of anecdotal evidence.

There's a whole science behind determining if a certain sample is statistically significant or not.

In the case of this type of surveys they have to observe that the sample is sufficiently random and sufficiently large.

 

[Jman8]

There's a whole science behind determining if a certain sample is statistically significant or not.

In the case of this type of surveys they have to observe that the sample is sufficiently random and sufficiently large.

I'm aware of the science behind "determining if sample is statistically significant or not." I am asserting that it is based on variation of anecdotal type thinking. It lacks (full) research and produces very obvious unfounded facts.

I get the scientific justifications for seeing it as sound, I don't get why those justifications aren't scrutinized far more than they are. There is nothing in OP that establishes it as fact that of all US adults, 8.7% doing what the survey suggests. Closer to fact (but still questionable) is that 8.7% of a group of 30,000 US adults do thus and so. That's the 'factual' finding. The other statement is anecdotal.

 

[caramel]

I get the scientific justifications for seeing it as sound, I don't get why those justifications aren't scrutinized far more than they are. There is nothing in OP that establishes it as fact that of all US adults, 8.7% doing what the survey suggests. Closer to fact (but still questionable) is that 8.7% of a group of 30,000 US adults do thus and so. That's the 'factual' finding. The other statement is anecdotal.

"The other statement" is also correct as long as it's accompanied by a correctly computed "Confidence Interval" and that number is sufficiently close to 100%.

In the "anecdotal" (i.e. "my friends") cases, the CI is very low.

 

[Jman8]

"The other statement" is also correct as long as it's accompanied by a correctly computed "Confidence Interval" and that number is sufficiently close to 100%.

In the "anecdotal" (i.e. "my friends") cases, the CI is very low.

I acknowledge that in some forms of anecdotal assertions the CI is low. That the CI is higher in survey findings is positive, but doesn't mean it isn't also based on anecdote. My point here is rather simple, but also saying the data is not all that different, in reality, from individual bias. And it takes individual bias to conclude otherwise.

As much as I would like to go back and forth on this, I think this thread is not the place for it and rather not be admonished by OP for being off topic. Even while I think it is relevant to what is being purported in OP. Just making a point that survey findings routinely / consistently come across to me as a variation of anecdotal thinking. That it doesn't perhaps for you, or anyone else, is what I was originally stating as, "I don't get." To think I don't get how statistics work or need schooling on the topic is interesting to me, humors me. But is akin to a newbie vaper explaining to a 5 year veteran of vaping how one might go about 'proper' use of vape gear.

 

[caramel]

You can play with a simplified version here:

Sample Size Calculator - Confidence Level, Confidence Interval, Sample Size, Population Size, Relevant Population - Creative Research Systems

Once you get your sampling right, you can get very close - like those voting polls that are 1% close to real results.

 

[dr g]

"The other statement" is also correct as long as it's accompanied by a correctly computed "Confidence Interval" and that number is sufficiently close to 100%.

In the "anecdotal" (i.e. "my friends") cases, the CI is very low.

Thank god there is some sanity in this thread

 

[sofarsogood]

Apparently the study is not complete? It sounds like they asked a bunch of people a set of questions. Would that be on a paper form and people sat down and filled it out? Is there some place to see the questionaire? My impression is a tobacco company funded the research? I don't have a problem with that but their focus is going to be on their cigalike products which most of us agree aren't as effective for quitting as vape shop products. It might be that people who adopt e-cig products found in vape shops have a higher quit rate than people who bought their gear in gas stations and party stores. It would be nice to have a survey focused on vape shop customers.

I would have guessed a smaller total number of people using e-cig products but a higher percentatge going to zero cigs. I rarely walk into gas stations or convenience stores but what I see is inventory in muted unobvious packaging that is poorly placed and appears to be turning over slowly.

I started my brother vaping last christmas (N mini, iStick 20w) with high hopes he would be on zero cigs by now simiiilar to my pattern. Like me his cigarettes declined 80% immediately and stayed there but he is staying in that mode and not sounding like he's anxious to get to zero cigs. (My rationale for finally quitting after 6 weeks of dual use what the bragging rights more than my health.) In my shop, where there might have been 20 smokers some months ago, there are 3 of us who are on zero cigs thanks to vaping. A couple more started vaping on $15 pen-a-likes and I don't notice them doing that lately. I perceive the people who are still tobacco-only are more self conscious about that. Finally I think the negative press is discouraging smokers from trying e-cigs.

 

[DC2]

Finally I think the negative press is discouraging smokers from trying e-cigs.

This is without a doubt the truth.
It was part of the plan all along, and it is definitely working.

It's possibly the most important thing we have to work against.
The mainstream media is killing us.

 

[rolygate]

This thread has been edited to remove the chat posts, placing them into a chat thread in order to keep this thread on topic.

Posts in this thread need to be about the material in post #1, otherwise they will be deleted. To chat about the topic in general, please post in the new chat thread:
http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/fo...ys-show-15-21-million-vapers-chat-thread.html

Moderators will be asked to delete non-relevant posts here.

Apologies if your post was partly relevant or almost entirely relevant - there is always collateral damage in these thread clean-ups.

Thank you.

 

[rolygate]

Can anyone with knowledge of the organisations and methods involved comment on the probable accuracy of these surveys? Thanks.

 

[caramel]

I guess there's not enough information on the sampling, It has to be representative in many ways - i.e. age groups, education, gender, rural/urban, spread across states etc. You cannot "sample" just in New York high schools and pretend it's a good representation at national level.

So... we have to take their word that it was conducted in a professional, unbiased manner.