Also, we have to accept that no-one actually knows how things are going to turn out.
This would've been my response to DC2's post. I think the issue seems too big for people to feel like if they got involved, they could make a difference. "Join CASAA" is a great rally cry, but quickly falls short of "making a difference" when you realize what average vaper is actually up against.
Especially given what you say (and apparently many others agree with) in rest of this post. If message is, 99%+ of all product will be gone, and we are certain of this, then what is average vaper supposed to do? Sometimes, I wish I were blissfully ignorant as I think the letdown from all the work the vaping enthusiast side will be too great. Whereas average vaper will think it sucks, but won't process in same way as vaping activist will.
My feeling is that we're going to end up in an unhappy compromise between vaping being allowed (it's probably too big to fail) and companies having to pay a huge amount to play.
I recognize this as realistic outcome, yet feel it is missing a few things.
Basically, the only winners will be the ones who make the grade. Vapers will likely still get their supplies, but they'll have vastly less choice, and will pay far more for what's on offer.
IMO, this is a decade away, at least. The point where supply (gear) is somehow cut off. I feel I only need remind activist that "none of us know for sure" to help make my point, but also to realize that there could, rather easily, be places on the planet that specialize in quality, innovative gear and that can cater to a market that thus far has never sought mainstream acceptance for APV.
Vaping culture will be killed off entirely.
This one I strongly disagree with. You are saying entirely, which makes counter position (I feel) easy to make points. Would love to explore what you mean by this precisely, but I would just say that culture right now is gaining steam (still) and worldwide ban, wouldn't end culture. Arguably, a ban could make it stronger, more hip to be part of that culture. And in America right now, regulators are fairly vocal about "no ban."
I don't believe the offshore option will do for those who wish to use it. The biggest overall expense in vaping is e-liquid, and the major nicotine producers are already consolidating. I believe international trade agreements will be forged such that nicotine will only be sold by licensed producers. China, in particular, is already heading this way - the Chinese government now realises that e-cigs are potentially a massive cash cow, and the major manufacturers are currently organising so as to meet international standards. The smaller companies/clones manufacturers will be pushed out of business by the authorities, because they will be seen to undermine the trade agreements, creating the possibility of the supply chain moving to other countries.
One of the things I feel you are missing is black market. Again, such a market can exist on an otherwise legal product. Plus, if not a worldwide ban, and as long as 'terrorists' or 'gangs' are still on this planet, then there will be incentive to not have product only be in hands of licensed producers.
I feel okay waiting on this issue, cause speculation can go either way. I just think it is odd to frame this discussion as one where this would be only industry (ever) to not have an underground market based on what some fathom as tightly controlled nicotine.
The above is not mere speculation. It's the conclusion I've come to from personal contact with people across the industry in all its forms over the last 6 months. I have not yet met one well-placed individual who does not assert that the regulations are going to eliminate 99+% of the vaping industry from existence.
I realize I don't qualify for "well-place individual" and yet I feel this works two ways on larger scale. One, I can't see how we could rally troops (average vaper) if this is a certainty. What's CASAA and other activists thinking they can do, if this is not mere speculation? My response, if this is accurate, then there is nothing they can do. Zero. So, either those types of groups are whistling in the wind, or we are closer to "no-one actually knows how things are going to turn out." Secondly, and related to first item, is I think this conclusion sets up certain aspects of vaping culture to be irrelevant going forward. Not to average vaper, cause that faction will remain blissfully ignorant and won't know what was discussed. But those who did join groups like CASAA and saw the dire predictions, may (strongly) hope for different leadership if dire predictions don't pan out. Though, I'm guessing a whole bunch of backtracking will occur by the "well-placed individuals" to save face. I've seen some of that already as originally all this was allegedly going down April of 2013. And even in April of 2014, it was met with disagreement of "just how bad is this" (FDA proposal). Personally, I think it kinda stinks that vaping culture's leadership is certain that the worst case scenario is going to come. Partially cause it offers no hope (realistically) going forward and mostly cause I recognize that no one actually knows, but is choosing worst case scenario is hopes that will rally troops. At any rate, perhaps it is great big learning lesson for the hopeful types like me, or a little wake up call for the well-placed people and reminder that their conclusions weren't necessarily the best take on things.
My view is that this will be a complete disaster - vaping is not yet well enough established (diffusion of innovations - remember, most smokers still haven't even tried an e-cig) for this not to profoundly impact its uptake. There are two forms of innovation that are behind the hitherto success - Products and vaping culture. The latter will be irrevocably destroyed, since vape culture is incompatible with one or two product offerings.
My view is that this is still gaining steam, culture is still growing and black market operators are being given ample time to set up operations that will fill a void left over by zealous regulators who chose the wrong path. Vaping culture will be around indefinitely and innovation will never end on this front. Incentive for great innovation could be heavily impacted, but so many factors outside of vaping that impact this issue and thus just too challenging to predict how it will all look 10 years from now. I think 2 years from now won't look all that different than right now.
The only way around this if the PACT act can be altered, or the FDA persuaded against taking the course of action they're considering. And the only way this can be ensured is if vapers contact congress (not the FDA, unless they can provide evidence - ie. the type they require) to alter PACT.
I agree on contacting Congress, and feel that is one way the tide could be turned on vaping. And is a rather significant way. It's tough right now to see how that would go, especially given an election year where stakes are supremely high on other matters (i.e. immigration reform).
Yet, even with PACT in place, black market for combustibles is now greater than regular market in NY state. I think that information is highly relevant to this topic. Anti's are overplaying their hand when it comes to vaping, and seemingly are okay continuing in that direction which is whole other thing that makes it challenging to see how this all plays out.
I still find it interesting that well-placed individuals on our side find FDA proposals utterly dismal and top individuals on ANTZ side find FDA proposals utterly dismal.
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side, er, I mean black market.
