E-Cig / VP market share and trends

[kinabaloo]

I guess most of us would feel that if the use of the VP spread rapidly and gained a substantial following, that this weight-of-numbers would be helpful in getting favourable legislation.

But I have little idea where we are at, or how fast things are moving.

Reading the forums you often hear how word seems to be spreading quickly among family and co-workers; and this type of spread should be exponential in character. But I still feel, at the same time, that a lot of people may not yet have ever heard of them, or at least seen one. So how long will this take to change?

Who'd like to point to some figures, or just hazzard some guesses, on current % using VPs rather than smoking, rate of change, when we might see as many vaporers as smokers - are we months away from this, or years? And what % of those who try a VP stick with it (after say a month).

 

[kinabaloo]

Any multi-billionaires reading?

How about giving out a free 510 starter kit to every smoker in the US?

That would count as a bulk order, so maybe $20 / kit x what, 50 million = $1 billion
(1,000 million).

So, if anyone can spare that, here's a good chance to make a mark in history ...

 

[kinabaloo]

As it's easier to chip in if there are some crazy guesses already on the table, here goes:

Current market share: 0.2% (Googled but can't find any figures)
% stick with vaping: 70%
Yearly growth rate currently (this month) : 400% (I expect eight times as many users by next year)

But this would only take us to perhaps 2% in September 2010

Now, if only we could reach 50% by this time next year ...

 

[kinabaloo]

People often talk about 'critical mass'. What % would that be in this case, at which point conversion becomes a landslide? Perhaps 10%?

10% is certainly a figure that gets political parties taking notice (worried). Could the rabidly antis count themselves anywhere near so numerous?

Perhaps freedom to vape is something that the libertarian party, if that's the right name, might run with?

I'm not in the US but but seems to me that how things pan out there will have repucussions elsewhere. Not certainly of course; Marmite and Quorn are banned in the US but are somewhat popular here (UK).

 

[kcr]

I would be interested in seeing those figures, too.

I think the percentage of those who try one and those who stick with it depends on a whole lot of variables, so you may not be able to get much useful information from that, unless it is broken down into categories.

For example, if I had stuck with the first kind I bought, I would probably only be using it now for what I initially thought I wanted it for: non-smoking hotel rooms and airplane lavatories. I have nothing against the first one, so I am not complaining about it, but it would not (for me) be a satisfactory full-time cigarette replacement.

Then I found this forum and learned that I had made the newbie mistake of wanting something that *looked* like my analog cigarettes, and that were different models out there, and there were different flavors of juice, and that I shouldn't try to replicate the flavor of my menthol analogs (which I was trying to do) because a major part of flavor in smoking analogs is burning leaves, and there are none in e-cigs.

And the learning curve. If someone puts it down and goes back to analogs before they actually figure out how to use them correctly, they are just quitting out of frustration and might not have if they had had help while learning.

So, if you are planning some sort of survey to gather information, I would try to determine *why* someone gave up on it more than how many gave up on it. Does that even make sense?

 

[kinabaloo]

I would be interested in seeing those figures, too.

I think the percentage of those who try one and those who stick with it depends on a whole lot of variables, so you may not be able to get much useful information from that, unless it is broken down into categories.

For example, if I had stuck with the first kind I bought, I would probably only be using it now for what I initially thought I wanted it for: non-smoking hotel rooms and airplane lavatories. I have nothing against the first one, so I am not complaining about it, but it would not (for me) be a satisfactory full-time cigarette replacement.

Then I found this forum and learned that I had made the newbie mistake of wanting something that *looked* like my analog cigarettes, and that were different models out there, and there were different flavors of juice, and that I shouldn't try to replicate the flavor of my menthol analogs (which I was trying to do) because a major part of flavor in smoking analogs is burning leaves, and there are none in e-cigs.

And the learning curve. If someone puts it down and goes back to analogs before they actually figure out how to use them correctly, they are just quitting out of frustration and might not have if they had had help while learning.

So, if you are planning some sort of survey to gather information, I would try to determine *why* someone gave up on it more than how many gave up on it. Does that even make sense?

Yes, I think many start out with the idea of the e-cig as a handy supplement (proly why SE and co push that angle).

My thinking is that one way or another, a good majority stick with vaping to some extent, so this figure is not so critical.

Boosting the spread of VP use is perhaps the best thing we can do to safeguard future use, unimpeded.

 

[kinabaloo]

I did see an estimate of how many kits have been sold worldwide on the forums here recently, but can't find it now - that might be a reasonable basis for establishing a ball-park figure.

% vapers is not 10% yet, probably not even 1%; but i have no real idea what the figure is.

 

[kinabaloo]

And the learning curve. If someone puts it down and goes back to analogs before they actually figure out how to use them correctly, they are just quitting out of frustration and might not have if they had had help while learning.

So, if you are planning some sort of survey to gather information, I would try to determine *why* someone gave up on it more than how many gave up on it. Does that even make sense?

Perhaps this is more important than i first thought.

Getting the 'stickers' rate up could be very helpful. One proposal stemming from this is that manufacturers provide a better guide in their kits - more thorough, and more 'honest' so newbies don't start dry-vaping (yuk) because they think they should get 20 cigs worth from a cart!

 

[kinabaloo]

It's a long way off yet, but the season of giving is coming ... assuming we're not already banned by then, that's an opportunity to spread the word ...

 

[Kent C]

Is VP a mod?

 

[surbitonPete]

It would certainly be interesting to have some idea of how many people are vaping or how many end up giving up with it and going back to smoking. You really have to 'believe' it's healthier than smoking tobacco to want to keep on doing it. That's why I can't see it appealing to kids at all.

 

[Archer]

I've never seen anyone else vaping before. My guess is we need some of the big companies to get in the market before enough people even know about vaping.

 

[aseeryl]

The biggest problem with widening and significant usage (changeover from analogs) is that the tobacco industry and governments wherever will be compelled by loss of revenue and loss of control to find a way of imposing taxes using whatever spurious, but plausible, excuses they can invent The option of banning will be ineffective (as with illegal drugs) and easily circumvented - look at Australia -especially when the general population won't really care to support a ban.

 

[surbitonPete]

The biggest problem with widening and significant usage (changeover from analogs) is that the tobacco industry and governments wherever will be compelled by loss of revenue and loss of control to find a way of imposing taxes using whatever spurious, but plausible, excuses they can invent The option of banning will be ineffective (as with illegal drugs) and easily circumvented - look at Australia -especially when the general population won't really care to support a ban.

Yes it might have been very easy to get supporters for anti-smoking groups because every non smoker hated the 'smell' of tobacco with a passion....but it would be very hard to get supporters for an Anti-vaping group. That's what the likes of ASH are panicking about, they will soon start to loose their supporters (and their income) if smokers all start converting to vaping.

 

[trog100]

you could use the number of users online in this place..

a year ago it was around 20 or less at any one time.. its as good a growth yardstick as any.. growth over the last year has been pretty rapid..

to be blunt i think the potential demand for e cigs is f-cking huge... legal storm clouds are the big unknown..

officialdom itself has created this demand by doing such good job of demonizing tobbaco.. there is a world full of sh-t scared nicotine addicts desperate to grab what they see as a safer alternative to tobacco smoking that actually works....

having said that i am sure the vast majority of potential users have never heard of e cigs..

trog

 

[kinabaloo]

you could use the number of users online in this place..

a year ago it was around 20 or less at any one time.. its as good a growth yardstick as any.. growth over the last year has been pretty rapid..

to be blunt i think the potential demand for e cigs is f-cking huge... legal storm clouds are the big unknown..

officialdom itself has created this demand by doing such good job of demonizing tobbaco.. there is a world full of sh-t scared nicotine addicts desperate to grab what they see as a safer alternative to tobacco smoking that actually works....

having said that i am sure the vast majority of potential users have never heard of e cigs..

trog

If there are say 1/2billion smokers in the world then my 0.2% share would suggest 1 million vapers; this seems a bit of an over-estimate. Though it might be 0.2% in the US, and perhaps the UK also; or soon will be.

Certainly the potential is huge.

 

[kinabaloo]

I've never seen anyone else vaping before. My guess is we need some of the big companies to get in the market before enough people even know about vaping.

It all depends who these 'big companies' are ...

Was wondering if the manufacturing capacity would be able to cope / grow fast enough; I think it could adapt pretty fast.

 

[kinabaloo]

The biggest problem with widening and significant usage (changeover from analogs) is that the tobacco industry and governments wherever will be compelled by loss of revenue and loss of control to find a way of imposing taxes using whatever spurious, but plausible, excuses they can invent The option of banning will be ineffective (as with illegal drugs) and easily circumvented - look at Australia -especially when the general population won't really care to support a ban.

I understand your reasoning, but we are probably already at the point now where some sort of regulation will happen, so our best bet is to go for large numbers of users.

And spreading the use is surely appropraite on moral grounds too.

 

[kinabaloo]

Is VP a mod?

I meant of course PV

 

[kinabaloo]

I can't see it appealing to kids at all.

I agree. Not so much because of cost, just the image and 'fuss' just not going to appeal.

There is already a major drug problem with kids, and that's alcohol (UK anyway).