Failing to self-regulate will destroy the open market.
The e-cig market has heavily self regulated itself. If you have failed to do research on that, that is your own fault. In fact, it was actually specifically mentioned in one of the threads given to you for your reading. I guess you must have missed it. Here it is again:
10 Facts That Everyone Gets Wrong About Vaping - Listverse
Specifically, read section 6 of that article.
Part 1
What percentage of the overall vaping industry do you think you represent? What percentage of people that vape on a regular basis have ever, or will ever change the heating element in their vaping device?
I don't know exactly what part I represent. I see a decent portion of the people on here using mech mods and RDAs. They would all fall into the same segment as myself. As for how many people will ever change the heating element in their device, if they plan on sticking with it, 100% of them WILL have to change the heating element in their vaping device, as the element must be replaced eventually.
Part 2
How does the number of people currently vaping on a regular basis compare to the number of people that WOULD move to vaping (from cigarettes)? What percentage of the potential market do you think you represent?
Good question. I am just one person of all the people who vape. If there are a million people who vape, I guess that means I am 0.0001% of the vaping population. If there are only 100,000 who vape(we know there are more than that), I am 0.001% of the population. However, I know there are thousands of people who are buying RDAs and many more than that constantly looking for ways to improve their vaping experience. Personally, I never thought I would want to deal with making coils or anything like that. After realizing how much better of an experience I could have if I got into that, I chose to pursue that route, as I am sure many others have. Thousands of people before me have used vaping to get off cigarettes, thousands more will continue to(hopefully). If I had to guess, I would say 70% or more of the people who vape have moved to it from smoking.
I'd be surprised to know that more than 10% of the regular vapers care enough about their devices to modify them. Correct me if I'm wrong. Meaning that, at best, you represent only 10% of the people that vape regularly.
Again, I don't have any solid numbers. If you want, start a thread with a survey asking how many people own RDAs or plan on purchasing one in the future. I think the number will be much higher than you think. I estimate it will easily be in the 25%-30% range. On top of that, ask how many people have gone to different tanks or different clearomizers because they want more flavor or a different vape.
I doubt that more than 1 person in 10,000 would be willing to invest in the amount of knowledge and awareness that you have.
This statement is proof that you have everyone all wrong. I can probably look through this thread and find at least 10 people who know far more than me. If I looked through the forum, I would probably find at least 1000 who are far more knowledgeable than me. Based on your 1 in 10,000 number, there should only be 22 people or so on the whole forum knowing as much as I do. At the end of the day, I am not the most knowledgeable on the subject. There is A LOT of it left for me to learn. I have only started vaping 7 months ago. There are a lot of people here who can make me look like the court jester when it comes to knowledge of e-cigs and everything they entail.
Again, I'll say it again, the biggest mistake "people that know things" make is that they fail to appreciate how rare they are. They assume "everyone knows" what they do, and everyone does not. Funny how people here sort of have this "Geez this guy is stupid" undertone to some of their comments, as if "everyone" knows this stuff, while other people (in another aspect of communication) fail to appreciate how rare their knowledge is in other ways (in this specific instance, believing that "most people" would favor an option laden vaping device and also would be open to the possibility of inhaling toxic metals, PARTICULARLY if they can be avoided for a nominal upcharge.). Again, I've seen (and experienced) this on online forums for computer repair. People that know it don't know they know it, and make the mistake that "everyone" has the same level of "common sense" instinct that they do. They don't. They're wrong. And that fundamental mistake of failing to appreciate the special nature of your specialized knowledge has a tendency to skew all your other opinions about "everyone else" and "everything else".
A coil that costs 10 times as much is not what I would deem a "nominal" upcharge. At the end of the day, these things are devices that get handled rough. They get dropped. They fall out of pockets. They fall over on tables. They get knocked off tables. In a case of one of mine, it is sitting at the bottom of a pond where I dropped it while fishing(I am sure this is a rare case, but one that has happened). In any of these cases, if the fancy coil you are wanting mandated gets damaged, it is going to be a significant cost to fix it. Would I prefer a method where there is no risk of toxic matters? ABSOLUTELY. The problem is, I don't want to be paying 10 times more for something that may only be marginally better(or may actually perform worse). Also, from what I have been reading, the results with heavy metals were on cartomizers using nichrome wire. I would be interested to see the same tests performed with kanthal wire and Ti wire. Either of those options may produce less(or none) of the heavy metals that nichrome wire produced. Also, with the advent of temperature control, the amount of those metals may be significantly less(or none). In that case, we would already be heading towards the "safer" option you are saying we need to go to, but without having the risk of a ceramic coil explode and injure someone. I don't disagree that safer is better. I just think there is more than one option out there to look into. Until tests have been done on these newer methods, we can't really be sure what they contain.
If anyone has any links to studies done with kanthal or temperature controlled devices using nichrome or Ti wire, please post links to them so I can read up on it.
And, in terms of the overall market, the early adopters are NEVER representative of the average consumer. They NEVER are. All you alpha, beta-testing, early adopters are smarter, more motivated and better informed than 90% of the general public will ever be on vaping. The general public sees public service announcements where 10 tons of information is condensed into a meaningless 15 second sound-bite, and if the vaping industry cannot boil down that 10 tons of information into the single sentence "Vaping is completely safe." then you are going to have a toe-to-toe conflict with Big Tobacco and Big Pharma both, and you are going to lose. Self-regulate or die. Never get into an argument with someone that buys ink by the barrel.
Believe it or not, the early adopters went for what were essentially cigalikes. That was all that was around over a decade ago when e-cigs came about. Since then, there have been numerous new iterations. The very first devices were much like cigalikes. Since then, they have made different resistances in cartomizers to change the vape a little. There have also been mechanical mods that would carry a much more powerful battery, also allowing people to make their own atomizers to build something to suit themselves. We have seen the rise of variable voltage and variable wattage devices so you can simply pick a different resistance and not have to build it yourself. Now we are seeing the rise of temperature control. That is A LOT of innovation if you think it is still in its infancy. I truly don't believe we can say people getting into vaping now are "early adopters" anymore. They are jumping in after over a decade of innovations.
Also, you keep saying "self regulate or die" and referencing big tobacco pushing us out because of the heating element we use. What do you think big tobacco uses for a heating element in their devices? It isn't a ceramic coated element. It is the exact same thing as in any other device. I will drive home my point about this silly "self regulate or die" attitude you have real soon.
In terms of the potential market, well it's my opinion that 90% of the potentially vaping public do not and will not be willing to purchase a vaping device that cannot be considered to be 99.5% safe. Instinctively they understand that nicotine will always have dangers, and also they understand that they have cut-out all the toxins and carcinogens from burning tobacco, but as soon as you say "toxic metals" (in ANY quantity, and at any level) automatically they are going to recoil. Who wants to think about the nanoparticle sized bits of toxic metals coating the inside of your lungs while you are vaping a substance that Big Pharma and Big Tobacco has been telling you is toxic. Better to stay with the devil that you know.
Your conclusion is that the steps taken will be to take away the safer option, and the government mandate people go back to the more dangerous option? I guess that makes sense(sarcasm).
This whole "self regulate or die" idea can be demolished by looking at one group: BIG TOBACCO!
The same group that you keep referencing is proof that self regulation not happening won't always lead something being taken away. I mean, we know there are THOUSANDS of dangerous chemicals in cigarette smoke, yet it is perfectly legal for an adult to smoke. If they didn't self regulate to make it safe and have no harmful chemicals, why didn't it die? There are actually MORE harmful chemicals added to it now than there were back when people were going for straight tobacco leaves. Do you really think the tobacco lobby that would be lobbying to get rid of APVs would actually push that hard to make their own devices be outlawed? The tobacco industry doesn't care about your health, and they don't care about your safety. They only care about profits. The ceramic element that you are saying will last 3 years is their worst enemy. They want something that wears out fairly soon so you have to come back and buy another one of their overpriced products.
Long term, and in order to pursue HUGE profit (which is what BP and BT are after), the "grassroots" vaping community is going to have to present the average consumer with a "finished product" that is as safe as technology can make it, otherwise the average consumer, being the frightened sheep that they are, are going to wait for the surgeon general, the FDA, the Federal Government, the Tobacco Lobby, Big Pharma, Big Charity to all agree that we need a massive bureaucracy to regulate and control the entire industry (from manufacturing to retail sale and licensing the use of the products) and they will tax the industry to pay for this bureaucracy, as well as to fund whatever other "special projects" they think are deserving.
I believe taxes will be imposed on e-liquids and probably devices in the future, regardless of how safe they will become. That is the nature of our government. If it can be taxed, they will tax it. Fortunately, people will still be able to get by without being taxed heavily if they are willing to invest their time. E-liquids are easy to produce. Coils are easy to make. RDAs are relatively easy to work with, if you are willing to do some researce. I can't see them taxing batteries, as they can be used in too many other devices. If someone really wants, they can build their own mod. This is a bit complicated for most, and I could see a lot of people being hit one time with a tax on this and the RDA. The wire is already out there for industrial purposes. To tax it, they would force additional taxes on industries.
One recent example for me, is the adoption of Windows 10. MS puts pressure on average people to install Windows 10, but how many people here know how to go about turning off all the spyware and data sharing and uploading capabilities that comes with Win10? I do. I'm a bit of an expert on that. I know where to go, and what questions to ask, and who to ask them from in order to get the software that I need to cripple Win10 to a level of functionality that I can live with. I'd be surprised if anyone here knew what I know. And, on the forum that I learned all this stuff on, all this knowledge is "common sense" there, too. And they're wrong over there, too.
Funny you would bring that up. Using your logic of "It has to be the safest or it has to go" means Windows shouldn't exist. From one IT professional to another, why would you use an inferior operating system? Why do you want to use something that has more holes than swiss cheese, and can't properly manage resources to save its life? Why do you not want a more secure and efficient system? Why are you using something that has all those flaws, and costs more(in most cases) than something that has many less flaws?
If everyone was more concerned about safety than anything else, wouldn't they have all moved away from Windows? To a business, its information is its life. If something out there is so dangerous, why use it?
Think of cigarettes as a fresh installation of windows. They are both horribly unsafe, and have a lot of risks(yeah, it has Windows Defender, but that adds just about as much safety as that cotton filter on a cigarette). Think of e-cigs as a windows installation with an antivirus and malware detection and removal software. The safety has been improved, but there are still flaws. Think of your coil idea and other safety features as a safer linux distribution. The possibility is there, but not in common use because there have been significant hurdles to overcome in getting there. As time goes on, there is a slow progression towards that safer option(just as we are seeing more businesses begin to use linux distributions in more areas, more devices are coming out with temperature control to reduce the risk of overheating the coils). We can't just instantly jump from one to the other. It is going to be a slow transition, and there will be bumps along the road. What matters is that the progress is already being made.
My point is, the "we" that you represent is very, very small, compared the size of the market that is going to be regulated (including you and your segment) if the vaping industry fails to self-regulate.
Eventually, the market will be somewhat regulated and taxed regardless of how safe it becomes. It will all come down to how much you want to be taxed. If you don't mind the tax, you can get hit by it every time you go to buy something e-cig related. If you want to avoid being taxed as much as you can, you can make most of the things yourself and get away from most of the taxation.
They are going to have a VERY hard time regulating and taxing a part of the market I would dive into. Until they decide to ban metal, wire, batteries, and switches, the option to have my segment will still be out there virtually tax free.