FDA From the Good Doctor: Predicting the Black Market in E-Cigarettes

[AgentAnia]

Just in from Carl Phillips. We've known it all along; now I hope everyone at FDA CTP reads this and learns from it!

Predicting the black market in e-cigarettes | Anti-THR Lies and related topics

 

[DrMA]

Oh great. Now they know the loopholes and alternative markets and they'll take steps to eliminate it.

 

[Harlen]

Y
You know they will never read this they mite learn something ,

 

[Kent C]

Carl really nails this one.

This, imo, is a wise but contentious observation about certain types of people:

"The standard ANTZ lie is that the market for tobacco products is created by the suppliers and not by demand. For anyone not living in that bizarro fantasy world, it should be apparent that continuing demand will result in continuing supply."

How many times have we heard this (in various forms) from people who want to stop or regulate the market. Paraphrasing "It is businesses and advertising that creates the demand and people end up with products that don't really want or need." This is burnt into their psyches and also puts the consumer in the 'victim status' - which greases support money and votes.

There have been many studies that question that advertising creates demand, esp. initiation demand, and here is one bit from studies of alcohol advertising:

A Bleary-Eyed Attitude to Alcohol Research | Cato Institute

"2.Virtually all of the studies of alcohol advertising exposure and recall fail to meet the minimal standards of science in that they are unable to warrant the integrity of their measurements. Further, their results, even when statistically significant, demonstrate only weak associations and fail to show causal connections between advertising and consumption, drinking initiation, and alcohol-related harm;"

Doesn't that sound familiar! junk science and big claims on 'trace' evidence??!!


I may only submit Carl's piece as my comment along with some solutions - get the Congress to change the grandfather date or establish a 'baseline predicate product' as proposed by Azim Chowdhury here:

http://www.khlaw.com/webfiles/What_To_Expect.pdf

If all goes as the FDA and ANTZ planned, Carl's scenario Will be the result. And as opposed to actual banned products, there won't be the need for 'hiding' use, although sales is a different picture:

"Moreover, because the proposed regulation is a backdoor ban that only regulates sales, and not a full-on ban that criminalizes acquisition, usage, or manufacture (absent sales), there will be no stigma or legal exposure in continuing to use and discuss the products openly."

Although I'm not so sure how openly products would be able to be discussed - like here at ECF - as far as sales and sources go. There may be a ban similar to the 'other substance' ban along the line of sales.

Thanks AgentAnia for posting!

 

[dshgr]

See: Prohibition

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

 

[Kent C]

Another thought on 'demand' from the black market perspective - there's nothing kids like better than something they can't have.

Banning, in that sense, is much more effective than all the "kid advertising" that the Senate HELP committee brought out.

 

[AgentAnia]

Oh great. Now they know the loopholes and alternative markets and they'll take steps to eliminate it.

I suspect the few rational minds at FDA CTP already know this but have been outvoted by the zealots (Zellerts?).

 

[AgentAnia]

Another thought on 'demand' from the black market perspective - there's nothing kids like better than something they can't have.

Banning, in that sense, is much more effective than all the "kid advertising" that the Senate HELP committee brought out.

Exactly. In fact, it doesn't even require a ban. I submit that all the ANTZ rhetoric being shouted in the media has done more for promoting ecig use to youth than all the (hypothetically kid-targeted) industry advertising could ever hope to achieve.

 

[Kent C]

I suspect the few rational minds at FDA CTP already know this but have been outvoted by the zealots (Zellerts?).

 

[Fizzy-Penny]

Carl has, in his usual well spoken way, voiced a prophecy sure to come to pass if the road the FDA is on doesn't change. My daughter, age 46 and who has never smoked a cigarette in her life, is thrilled that her big brother and I have taken up vaping. She totally "gets it" and just asked me, "Mom, are you absolutely sure your stockpile is big enough?" Only the totally uninformed who are swayed by their own prejudices to turn a blind eye to THR don't agree with her attitude.

Fight on, vape on, people.

 

[aikanae1]

There was a footnote in the OMD Economic Impact report that I bristled at; it basically commented that even though regulations would severely limit consumer choices they didn't predict volume of sales would be less.

Wrong. I think they seriously underestimate the level of backlash against tobacco companies (and pharmaceutical). One of the joys of vaping for me has been not turning my money over to those industries anymore.

 

[Kent C]

There was a footnote in the OMD Economic Impact report that I bristled at; it basically commented that even though regulations would severely limit consumer choices they didn't predict volume of sales would be less.

Wrong. I think they seriously underestimate the level of backlash against tobacco companies (and pharmaceutical). One of the joys of vaping for me has been not turning my money over to those industries anymore.

They lied throughout the deeming doc about the impact doc, the intent of the impact doc and the implications of the deeming doc on the impact doc

 

[aikanae1]

They lied throughout the deeming doc about the impact doc, the intent of the impact doc and the implications of the deeming doc on the impact doc

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Personally when I looked closely at the impact doc it was a piece of _ _ _ _. They basically took sales of ecigs from a percentage of cigar sales. How are they related? The lengths they will go to inorder to avoid admitting small and medium sized vaping industry exists is still extreme, IMO. The fact they couldn't wait a few more months until accurate 2012 figures came out - which have been out (or should be) by now and there's still no update. But part of that was due to the fact that they've been avoiding these figures all along, so they really don't exist. The lack of orgainization from merchants just allowed them to get away with that. Tobacco (TEVA) was more organized and did hand over figures. I assume that's also why Congress only recognizes TEVA associated manufacturers also (since they all live in a bubble and don't know how anyone else lives). It's just this huge blind spot that they'd prefer to keep. Is that what your referring to?

 

[Kent C]

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

I think you got it

The intent of the impact doc was to ensure the effect on small businesses is taken into consideration, and the FDA gave alternatives that would have less impact, but then the deeming doc proposal was the one that had the most unfavorable impact to small businesses .... which to me appeared that the FDA 'went through the motions needed' only to comply with the RFA, taking nothing of the intent seriously.

Another reason why addressing comments to Congress may be more beneficial than comments to the FDA, since they (FDA) seem to have already made their decisions. That may be true of Congress as well, but it's just not as evident - except for a handful of Democrat Senators, as we have seen.

 

[aikanae1]

CYA by complaining to both. I wish SBA had more teeth too.

 

[Jman8]

I'm Jman, and I approve Dr. Phillip's black market post.

I kinda wish I too had waited until Independence Day to make this known rather than posting about it on ECF days after 4/24/14 and getting labeled as a shill of some sort.

I like where he mentions, "...and how easy it is to access the black market." Maybe in 1957 it would've been hard to access such a market, but in 2017, it will likely be easier to go black market for eCigs than it will be to get a US stamp for postage.

I currently do not see FDA moving things in this direction, though I realize it is plausible. Heck, some people have trouble understanding that a huge black market currently exists for smokes. Hmmm, now why would that market exist?

 

[Jman8]

Another thought on 'demand' from the black market perspective - there's nothing kids like better than something they can't have.

Banning, in that sense, is much more effective than all the "kid advertising" that the Senate HELP committee brought out.

Can't like this type of post enough.

FDA has a very important choice to make, and the whole "for the kids" thing needs to be presented in more than one light. Not sharing this sort of reasoning with the FDA in public comments would be, how you say, ignorance.

It's why all those who support current bans to kids are people I find challenging to reason with. Sounds wonderful and hopeful on the surface, but neglects reality of life on this planet at a magnitude that equals sheer stupidity. Hey, congratulations on making another product look totally cool to the next generation of minors. Well done. Here, let me pat you on the back for your utter nonsense.

 

[Kent C]

Can't like this type of post enough.

FDA has a very important choice to make, and the whole "for the kids" thing needs to be presented in more than one light. Not sharing this sort of reasoning with the FDA in public comments would be, how you say, ignorance.

It's why all those who support current bans to kids are people I find challenging to reason with. Sounds wonderful and hopeful on the surface, but neglects reality of life on this planet at a magnitude that equals sheer stupidity. Hey, congratulations on making another product look totally cool to the next generation of minors. Well done. Here, let me pat you on the back for your utter nonsense.

Too bad the FDA "studies" that Bill mentions can't find a way to tell the lab rats that the ecigs are banned... to see how they'd react

And people know how kids react - so you could conclude with a good deal of certainty, that they actually want kids to try them.

 

[Mig01]

Carl has, in his usual well spoken way, voiced a prophecy sure to come to pass if the road the FDA is on doesn't change. My daughter, age 46 and who has never smoked a cigarette in her life, is thrilled that her big brother and I have taken up vaping. She totally "gets it" and just asked me, "Mom, are you absolutely sure your stockpile is big enough?" Only the totally uninformed who are swayed by their own prejudices to turn a blind eye to THR don't agree with her attitude.

Fight on, vape on, people.

My wife told me recently, in light of possible regulations being put in place in Canada: "make sure you have enough supply of e-liquid for at least a year in case they decide to ban e-liquid with nicotine".
She also strongly supports my buying of a durable mod that uses 18650 batteries, because she knows that those batteries will not be banned.
Although she is very respectful of the law, in this case she said she would support me if I had to acquire the e-ci products I want on the black market.
She simply does not understand why governments would want to kill an industry that sells products that are as far as she knows much less dangerous than cigarettes, while those same cigarettes continue to be legally available.
Of course, she understands that there would not be an outright ban on all e-cigs, just the on the products that people truly enjoy and are, because of that, effective at getting people to quit smoking.