My predictions for the e-cigarette industry in 2013 (it's a bit longer than usual. If you're lazy just skip to the conclusion).
With the technology becoming exponentially more popular last year, 2013 looks to be an even more significant year for e-cigarettes. Tensions are rising with regards to the regulation of the industry, sales continue to soar and more big tobacco companies are staking their claim, so 2013 promises to be an eventful one for the legislators and manufacturers in the industry. Although its impossible to tell how things will turn out, its still possible to make some definitive predictions for the coming year in e-cigarettes.
The FDA Will Continue Pushing for Regulation
The FDA has thus far cast itself as the arch-nemesis of the electronic cigarette, issuing inflammatory press releases, pursuing manufacturers wherever possible and attempting to gain regulatory control. One of the benefits of this is that manufacturers would be able to state that e-cigs appear to be useful for people trying to quit smoking, but more stringent rules could force some smaller manufacturers out of the market. This debate will undoubtedly continue throughout the year, and the recent trouble with side effects from the smoking addiction treatment Chantix may lead them to wait for extensive proof before authorizing any therapeutic claims.
Sales Will Increase
Sales of e-cigarettes have doubled for the past two years, and they are expected to reach around $1 billion in 2013. This is a natural consequence of increased awareness of the benefits of e-cigs, and means that the industry will continue to grow. How exactly this is permitted to take place may ultimately depend on the FDA, but as things stand, e-cigs will continue to be big businesses.
More Television Ads for E-Cigs
E-cigarette manufacturers have started advertising on TV, and you can expect to see more of this in 2013. As the industry gathers steam and the leading manufacturers grow bigger marketing budgets, I think the competition will reach the airwaves. Advertising tobacco is a thing of the past, but the nicotine-dispensing e-cig will re-awaken the entire debate in the coming year.
Tobacco Companies Will Make Their Move
Tobacco giant Lorillard (owner of Newport cigarettes) was the first traditional cigarette company to venture into e-cigs, with their purchase of Blu eCigs last year. Similarly, British American Tobacco has established Nicoventures to break into the alternative nicotine market. Philip Morris, the manufacturer of Marlboro, is still being tentative, but they are looking at plans for a healthier version of their cigarettes. Although this isnt expected until 2016, well certainly see more big tobacco players get involved with the e-cigarette revolution. They have huge financial backing, so a foray into electronic cigarettes is actually pretty affordable from their perspective. Lorillard paid $135 million for Blu, but to them its chump-change.
The Overall Picture
2013 looks to be the year where the financial potential of the industry comes face to face with the FDA and the quest for regulation. The FDA has been fighting for a long time, and the recent public hearing shows that the issue is still a priority, so there will probably be big news at some stage this year. Many big players in the industry are in favor of stricter regulations, and the FDA would have to be monumentally backwards to impose crippling restrictions on such a promising technology, so a détente could be just over the horizon.
Also, check out Shannon's predictions for 2011 here. Note to Shannon: you're right, it's fun looking back at 2011 and seeing some of your predictions come true =)
What's your prediction for the e-cigarette/vaping industry for 2013?
With the technology becoming exponentially more popular last year, 2013 looks to be an even more significant year for e-cigarettes. Tensions are rising with regards to the regulation of the industry, sales continue to soar and more big tobacco companies are staking their claim, so 2013 promises to be an eventful one for the legislators and manufacturers in the industry. Although its impossible to tell how things will turn out, its still possible to make some definitive predictions for the coming year in e-cigarettes.
The FDA Will Continue Pushing for Regulation
The FDA has thus far cast itself as the arch-nemesis of the electronic cigarette, issuing inflammatory press releases, pursuing manufacturers wherever possible and attempting to gain regulatory control. One of the benefits of this is that manufacturers would be able to state that e-cigs appear to be useful for people trying to quit smoking, but more stringent rules could force some smaller manufacturers out of the market. This debate will undoubtedly continue throughout the year, and the recent trouble with side effects from the smoking addiction treatment Chantix may lead them to wait for extensive proof before authorizing any therapeutic claims.
Sales Will Increase
Sales of e-cigarettes have doubled for the past two years, and they are expected to reach around $1 billion in 2013. This is a natural consequence of increased awareness of the benefits of e-cigs, and means that the industry will continue to grow. How exactly this is permitted to take place may ultimately depend on the FDA, but as things stand, e-cigs will continue to be big businesses.
More Television Ads for E-Cigs
E-cigarette manufacturers have started advertising on TV, and you can expect to see more of this in 2013. As the industry gathers steam and the leading manufacturers grow bigger marketing budgets, I think the competition will reach the airwaves. Advertising tobacco is a thing of the past, but the nicotine-dispensing e-cig will re-awaken the entire debate in the coming year.
Tobacco Companies Will Make Their Move
Tobacco giant Lorillard (owner of Newport cigarettes) was the first traditional cigarette company to venture into e-cigs, with their purchase of Blu eCigs last year. Similarly, British American Tobacco has established Nicoventures to break into the alternative nicotine market. Philip Morris, the manufacturer of Marlboro, is still being tentative, but they are looking at plans for a healthier version of their cigarettes. Although this isnt expected until 2016, well certainly see more big tobacco players get involved with the e-cigarette revolution. They have huge financial backing, so a foray into electronic cigarettes is actually pretty affordable from their perspective. Lorillard paid $135 million for Blu, but to them its chump-change.
The Overall Picture
2013 looks to be the year where the financial potential of the industry comes face to face with the FDA and the quest for regulation. The FDA has been fighting for a long time, and the recent public hearing shows that the issue is still a priority, so there will probably be big news at some stage this year. Many big players in the industry are in favor of stricter regulations, and the FDA would have to be monumentally backwards to impose crippling restrictions on such a promising technology, so a détente could be just over the horizon.
Also, check out Shannon's predictions for 2011 here. Note to Shannon: you're right, it's fun looking back at 2011 and seeing some of your predictions come true =)
What's your prediction for the e-cigarette/vaping industry for 2013?
