On the 8th....

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Zeusvapes

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So I've been reading news articles. Reading forum threads and watching videos.

I still don't have any idea what is going to happen with juice.

I'm not concerned with devices or tanks. That seems to be straightforward. Companies will be able to sell their devices for 2 years and apply for approval in that time. If an approval is in process, then they get a 1 yr extension past the 2 years...

But juice seems to be a different story.

Seems to me what will happen is the juice Will have to "stop manufacturing"? And be able to sell of their stock during the 2 years?

My guess is that the juice Will continue to flow for 2 years. And as the endtimes nears we will see more shortages and price increases.

Am I reading this all right?

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Bob Chill

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None of us know what kind of evolution to expect other than the obvious age restrictions and packaging/labeling requirements.

Some companies will definitely drop out sooner than later but some will surely cruise right along for a while and they will benefit from decreased competition.

Something to keep an eye on is that the FDA will be conducting on site inspections fairly soon and they have provided limited guidance as to what they are inspecting for. It's a recon mission with authority to enforce things that haven't been disclosed. In other words, the FDA has the ability to shut a business down if they don't like what they see. Then issue a compliance requirement that could be too onerous for a small business to get back up and running. I'm speculating of course but it's within the realm.
 

Zeusvapes

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That's what I figured. Raids for lack of a better word.

Starting to regret my panic buy spree after looking at my bank account lol.

I have enough nict for a lifetime. And mods and tanks to go with it.

I guess I'll just go ahead and start throwing a little more out of each paycheck to Vapewild.com to stock up on my favorites.

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Opinionated

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My thought is juice is where we are going to see big business try and step in.. They just did in fact, a company "run by veterans of Dow and Proctor and Gamble" just began selling e juice.

This is what is going to happen, they will run all mom and pops out of business, then in pops big business, and after all competition is gone, the prices will rise.

That is what I thought prior to seeing this new e juice company, and them popping up is simple confirmation of this plan overall. I say get into diy.. it's probably going to be needed.
 
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Str8vision

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-If- I understand it correctly (a BIG if) the only thing you the consumer should see is the beginning of "age verification" which has unfortunately already proven problematic at some sites for a few people. Flavor shots (boosts) will soon disappear as will free juice samples that often accompanied purchases. Juice itself should continue flowing for the next two years for as long as the vendors remain in business. Prices should remain stable for the next year or so but substantial increases are on the horizon. Labeling might change to meet requirements but that isn't really a big deal for consumers. We could see increased scrutiny of overseas shipments depending on how ....-retentive the government wants to get. Juice manufacturers must begin complying with certain manufacturing requirements but you the consumer shouldn't realize any impact unless a favorite vendor is shut down for non-compliance but I really don't think we'll see that happen very often.

Supposedly, after August no new-to-the-market items can be "legally" sold without first obtaining FDA approval. The problem is the FDA itself doesn't know what is required for approval so it's going to be a learning curve for both them and the vendors/manufacturers, I don't expect to see any "new" products hit the market for an extended period of time. The possible exception to this will be products offered by major corporations, I'm sure they'll prosper in this legislative/regulatory minefield. Especially those who regularly lobby (bribe) influential members of congress, they'll have access to the FDA's express lane. The small to mid sized companies we all are familiar with in the vaping community will likely end up closing their doors -or- be bought out by large corporations over the next two years. Due to the cost and complexity involved with gaining FDA approval, small companies (mom & pops) simply won't survive.

For existing products, I believe vendors/manufacturers must submit inventory lists of their products and then have two years to file applications for approval of each inventoried item. Seeking approval is -very expensive- the FDA estimates the cost between $300K and $400K per application/item. For juice, each flavor is considered an item, each nic strength of that flavor is considered a "different" item and requires a separate application. This is why flavor shots will be discontinued, a juice with a flavor "boost" is considered a new item and must have FDA approval. -If- the FDA's cost estimates are accurate, for vendors/manufacturers like Ahlusion, The Plume Room, Nicoticket, Goodjuice, Charlie Nobel etc.. the cost of basic product applications alone could easily run over a hundred million dollars. This is why I don't expect many will survive but will instead close shop -or- be bought out before the deadline in 2018, only time will tell. At some point the price for retail juice will rise to cover the cost of FDA approval and compliance, I fully expect to see at least 25 - 50% increases and that doesn't include anticipated state "tobacco" taxes which, for many, could easily end up dwarfing that increase. Two years from now I suspect the average retail consumer will be spending close to double what they currently pay for juice assuming of course the juice they like is still on the market.

There is a possibility one of the pending lawsuits against the FDA might prevail and stop or at least mitigate this insanity (even if only temporarily) but I personally doubt it. The U.S. is -far- too corrupt to hope for or expect a different outcome.
 

Eskie

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the juice "testing" also require having it tested in all possible combinations of a device(s)?

Yes, no, maybe. That about sums it up at the moment. Should that prove to be the case with tight FDA enforcement of that for approval, closed systems will then be the only products likely to gain approval. And the only reason no and maybe are in that answer is the purported goal of the FDA to better assess safety with additional consideration during this period. Which likely still means Yes.
 

RoseJ

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Honestly, I'm not as informed as most of you who have replied to this thread, but with the little I do about what the FDA can/can't or will/won't do, I'm nodding my head at most of what I'm reading here.

The thing that scares me more than the FDA, is state laws. PA scared the hell out of me. So far, so good in FL, but you never know.
 

Chris54

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I agree RoseJ. I've felt the California state legislature could be more of a threat to vaping than the FDA. I wrote them a lot in 2015 and got nothing but negative responses. It just turned my head today when the 18mg base liquid I was using to defer using my nicotine stores is being taken off market. I did successfully navigate the age verification process when I ordered 5 more liters of 100mg/ml nicotine base for freezing. Ironic that public health officials are pushing me into working with more highly concentrated and potentially dangerous nicotine base sooner. I'm very careful with the 100mg stuff and always respect it so I have had no problems. I smoked for 42 years until January 2015 and I am not going back, no matter what.
 

RoseJ

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I agree RoseJ. I've felt the California state legislature could be more of a threat to vaping than the FDA. I wrote them a lot in 2015 and got nothing but negative responses. It just turned my head today when the 18mg base liquid I was using to defer using my nicotine stores is being taken off market. I did successfully navigate the age verification process when I ordered 5 more liters of 100mg/ml nicotine base for freezing. Ironic that public health officials are pushing me into working with more highly concentrated and potentially dangerous nicotine base sooner. I'm very careful with the 100mg stuff and always respect it so I have had no problems. I smoked for 42 years until January 2015 and I am not going back, no matter what.

It might be because 18mg isn't a big seller, but I don't know. If it is as you think, then like everything else that's going on, it doesn't make any sense. But you win, because the 100mg I'd think would be much more cost efficient.

Nope, I'm never going back to smoking either, no matter what happens.
 

six

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The 7th will be just like the 9th. This isn't an SMOD sort of situation... but rather, depending on the FDA's budget and a few other factors, this is just the beginning of growth and innovation being stifled. The nanny-staters decided on a 2 year time table to pry open the cookie jar far enough to get their hand in. That's all. Democrats feel very compelled to stabilize California's tobacco bonds and that means they have to get smoking rates back up over the next 5 years and get back on track with their statistics regarding tobacco related illness. Without those smoking rates, the money the democrats in California borrowed against their tobacco bonds can't be repaid.... So, democrats prefer you dying of lung cancer than their fellow democrats ever having to fess up to waste/fraud/abuse/bad-decisions.... etc. That's the reality and they put a 2 year time table on stabilizing smoking rates for those States foolish enough to over-borrow on money they were only guessing at to begin with.
 

smacuser

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    My guess is that the juice Will continue to flow for 2 years. And as the endtimes nears we will see more shortages and price increases.

    Sure, why not? Most juice has a 2 year shelf life, right?
     

    Opinionated

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    It might be because 18mg isn't a big seller, but I don't know. If it is as you think, then like everything else that's going on, it doesn't make any sense. But you win, because the 100mg I'd think would be much more cost efficient.

    Nope, I'm never going back to smoking either, no matter what happens.

    The thing about the 18mg is this. It isn't sold in very large quantities because people who use it aren't using mechanical or box mods, (hence lower consumption of it overall) but it is the most popular strength for people making the initial quit. In order to get off the cigarette addiction, most need a higher level of nicotine and most people initially quit using an ego style battery.

    By taking the higher levels of juice off the market, you are greatly hampering, if not outright ending, the best and most effective way (at least the most popular way to date) for people to make the initial quit.
     

    sofarsogood

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    So I've been reading news articles. Reading forum threads and watching videos. I still don't have any idea what is going to happen with juice.
    The FDA is being vague and not helpful because they don't like the technology, they don't like the people who make it or the people who use it. They treat the people who sell cigarettes with more respect and courtesy than the people who sell ecigs because the cigarette people help the government raise many billions of dollars in taxes while the ecig business takes that way.

    Nicotine gum and patches are classic snake oil because they don't work. The FDA approves them BECAUSE they don't work. They won't approve anything that works because tobacco taxes, nationally, locally and globally are simply to important regardless of public health.
     

    Haktuspit

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    Someone in another thread posted the big what if, if they suspect you don't seriously intend to submit a PMTA they can shut you down.

    This is going to sound odd but I almost hope they hit vaping as hard as they possibly can 8/8. It may be the only way to wake many others up to the coming regs. I suspect the only reason they even gave us 2 years and a rollout was to avoid public outcry.

    And I'm about to leave California "for a while" and I can't honestly say after a dozen years I want to return this time.
     

    Opinionated

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    Someone in another thread posted the big what if, if they suspect you don't seriously intend to submit a PMTA they can shut you down.

    This is going to sound odd but I almost hope they hit vaping as hard as they possibly can 8/8. It may be the only way to wake many others up to the coming regs. I suspect the only reason they even gave us 2 years and a rollout was to avoid public outcry.

    And I'm about to leave California "for a while" and I can't honestly say after a dozen years I want to return this time.

    Without wanting to wax overly political, but feeling it needs said right now. This is the fault of all of us.

    When we don't protect the rights of others, they come after ours eventually - and political affiliation won't matter in the least, because by then, we have signed away too many rights.

    We will begin seeing this more and more, across the board regardless of political affiliation, because we have given up too many rights. And honestly, I don't see people stopping the pattern, until they taste what they did.

    It's been this sick race my whole life, to see who can take the rights away from "them" regardless of who them is, without stopping to realize when you take away "their" rights you have removed your own, and regardless of whether or not you want to use them right this second, they were written in for good reason, and when you figure out why, they won't exist any longer.
     
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    bnrkwest

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    In Portugal's rates and more fees applied in the juice.
    € 0.60 Per milliliter of juice with nicotine.
    30ml € tax X0.60 = 18 €
    another 20 € cost of liquid=38€
    plus 23% VAT = 46,74€ for 30ml juice
    Yikes! What is wrong with the world it is crazy their attack on vaping. EU is as bad as US!
     
    My thought is juice is where we are going to see big business try and step in.. They just did in fact, a company "run by veterans of Dow and Proctor and Gamble" just began selling e juice.

    This is what is going to happen, they will run all mom and pops out of business, then in pops big business, and after all competition is gone, the prices will rise.

    That is what I thought prior to seeing this new e juice company, and them popping up is simple confirmation of this plan overall. I say get into diy.. it's probably going to be needed.
    Lots of nice help on Youtube for Diy. I'm gathering the equipment.
     
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