I agree that there are Pavlovian forces at play- there are also behaviors, and habits that are linked with smoking. I always lit up when I got into the car, or picked up the phone, or or or.
Most smokers have habits, jobs, houses, kids, lives...that they probably enjoy sometimes. Smoking is wrapped up pretty tightly with those routines.
In order to get anyone to change the cost of continuing their current behavior has to be much greater than the pain of change. That's why most folks don't quit unless they have a darn good reason.
Things like ...... and crack are easier to quit because the lifestyles that go along with them aren't fun. Remove yourself from the situation- go somewhere you can't score crack and it makes quitting easier. There isn't really a bottom with cigarettes the way there is with crack. I still have all of my teeth, and have never needed to prostitute myself to get a nicotine fix.
That's why ecigs are getting to be popular-
vaping is more fun, more interesting, cheaper, and less painful than smoking analogs. The idea of different flavors excited me for a hot second, but after smoking for 17 years, I can't taste anything anyway.
I've faced up to the fact that I'm an addict- I vape pretty much unflavored juice, and am fine with that. It's not cute, it's not fun, I'm getting my fix- plain and simple. I don't really want to devote any more time, money or energy finding the perfect cigarette substitute. I just want my nicotine.
It's a different delivery device, so there's some fine tuning to figure out a new routine, but I'm willing to figure it out- i.e. change because I enjoy vaping more than I like smoking. The flavor is neither here nor there for me. Yes, I'll probably always salivate when I smell a cigarette. Most long term smokers do. My sister still dreams of smoking, and she's been clean for 3 years.
So, once they get rid of their notion that cigarettes don't give them super powers (we all smoke when we're stressed, but a cigarette has never ever solved any of our problems, or made us feel any better), and get used to being able to breathe again- the switch is pretty easy.
Flavor is nearly incidental, but yes, something that tastes like a Marlboro- maybe with a little ammonia, and something that provides CO2 would probably win them over easier.
You want to get more people vaping? Make a category killer ecigarette- one that works, and is easy to understand. They're a significant investment, and choosing the right one isn't easy. Take away the harsh, dehydrating throat hit- and you'll get even more.
Right now it's the learning curve rather than the flavor that tends to be the detriment to conversion IMHO.