Analysis of 2014-2016 NTYS data finds teen smokers far more likely to vape

[Bill Godshall]

Analysis of 2015 NYTS data on 6-12th graders exposes many false claims by CDC, finds:
Frequency of Use and Smoking Status of U.S. Adolescent E-Cigarette Users in 2015
(note that ‘frequent’ use = 20+ of past 30 days, and ‘infrequent’ use = <20 of past 30 days)

- frequent smokers were 84 times more likely than never smokers to vape daily (16.9% v 0.2%)

- infrequent smokers were 36 times more likely than never smokers to vape daily (7.3% v 0.2%)

- frequent smokers were 73 times more likely than never smokers to vape frequently (21.8% v 0.3%)

- infrequent smokers were 41 times more likely than never smokers to vape frequently (12.2% vs 0.3%)

- frequent smokers were 12 times more likely than never smokers to vape in past 30 days (64.7% v 5.5%)

- infrequent smokers were 9 times more likely than never smokers to vape in past 30 days (50.4% v 5.5%)


In 2016, Villanti et al revealed the 2014 NYTS found <0.1% of never tobacco users in 6th-12th grades reported vaping on 10 or more of the past 30 days
http://ntr.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/12/24/ntr.ntw388

CDC 2014-2016 NYTS data for 6th-12th graders (see tables below) finds:
- 1.1% (virtually all smokers or exsmokers) vaped daily in 2015 and 2016
- 2.1% (virtually all smokers or exsmokers) reported vaping >100 days in their life in 2015-2016
- teens who vaped 10+ days (in past 30 days) declined from 2.8% in 2015 to 2.2% 2016
- lifetime teen vaping declined from 25.7% in 2015 to 22.9% in 2016
- in 2016, nearly as many teens (8.6%) reported vaping THC as vaping nicotine (10.6%)
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/surveys/nyts/data/index.html

During the past 30 days, on how many days did you use electronic cigarettes or e-cigarettes?
Days 2014 2015 2016
0 89.3 87.4 90.0
1-2 4.3 5.0 3.5
3-5 1.5 2.0 1.8
6-9 1.0 1.4 0.9
10-19 0.9 1.1 0.8
20-29 0.5 0.6 0.3
All 30 0.9 1.1 1.1

In total, on how many days have you used an electronic cigarette or e-cigarette in your entire life?
Days 2015 2016
0 74.3 77.1
1 7.3 6.5
2-10 7.5 6.8
11-20 2.9 2.6
21-50 2.6 2.1
51-100 1.7 1.5
>100 2.1 2.1

2016 NYTS
Have you ever used an e-cigarette device with a substance besides nicotine? (Select one or more)
8.6% A. Yes, I have used an e-cigarette device with marijuana, THC or hash oil, or THC wax
1.9% B. Yes, I have used an e-cigarette device with another substance that is not marijuana, THC or hash oil, or THC wax
10.6% C. No, I have only used an e-cigarette device with nicotine
71% D. No, I have never used an e-cigarette device
7.4% E. Don’t know/not sure


Clive Bates: Trends in tobacco and nicotine use in the United States – April 2018 version
https://www.clivebates.com/documents/USTrendsApril2018.pdf
https://www.clivebates.com/documents/MTF12thGradeSmokingTrend.png
https://www.clivebates.com/documents/MTF12thGradeSmokingTrend+.png