My feeling is that free-roaming nicotine liquids will not be allowed.
They will never pass on either substantial equivalence or via the PMTA process.
And if they do get approved, they will be severely limited in nicotine strength and most likely without flavors.
Just to be clear, and not concerned with bet at all in this moment, what would it take for you to see this differently? Is it simply a matter of time, and 'we shall see?'
My practical feeling on this is they have no way, plausible, to prevent free roaming nicotine. And if they do, then 'war on drugs' ought to be over within a year after that happens.
Because I think they realize this, then regulation is the option to go for, and hope for compliance. Either way, it's going to be treated as mandatory to comply to the regulation, but your scenario opens the black market wide and I see it prospering as much as current unauthorized market. It's not like vendors are currently authorized to be selling, and while it could prove to be more difficult to obtain down the road, I don't see it as impossible by any stretch of the imagination. And this is under a worst case scenario that isn't hinted at in current proposal. So, this worst case scenario is plausibly 3 to 5 years away, and not 2.5, because current proposal isn't in that direction. So new rules, new comment period, new policy of enforcement.
Current proposed rules seek some form of regulation and current comment period is open to everyone, but likely only to be responded to from vendors, ANTZ, manufacturers and vaping enthusiasts. And thus far, vaping enthusiasts seem to be in panic mode, thus plausibly going the route of disorganized response that leaves high value input to the remaining 3 parties.
I believe that such restrictions would leave the general public with only tamper-proof prefilled cartridges.
And that such a result will eventually lead to the elimination of just about everybody in the industry except Big Tobacco.
If free-roaming nicotine liquids are allowed with flavors and reasonable strengths, then that will be enough for me to concede the bet.
And it will also be enough to allow the electronic cigarette market to continue to thrive indefinitely.
Well, other than the taxes that would soon follow.
I honestly cannot make the bet with you in good faith because I truly think you are way off base with your assessment, and because I see you as friend. If that seems like a cop out, I'm happy to talk via PM with you about this.
To be clear, my bet didn't have to do with black market scenario. It has to do with current FDA proposal and what will be legal no more than 3 years from now, and what will be the overall state of the eCig industry in terms of sales revenue. I believe you've somewhat conceded with idea that BT could still be in business and thus eCig industry could be thriving. I realize for you that wouldn't be a concession, but for me, it is cause I see that happening plus some degree of other companies in the mix who are legally selling many of the same products we enjoy today.
But I acknowledge that there will be 'bumps in the road' over the next 3 years and not everyone that's in business today will be around 3 years from now. But I see that partially, to mostly, because of poor attitude/lack of vision within the business. Not entirely due to that, but partly for sure. I don't think you are alone in viewing current proposal as 'handicap' and if that idea is allowed to fester, it'll be far more of an undoing than most of what ANTZ or FDA could possibly dream up.
IMO, vaping community needs leadership right about now that has attitude of, 'we got this covered' and/or 'we can do this.' I'm in that camp cause science is on our side, FDA proposal indicates (to me) that we have political momentum on our side, and because business is booming. For it to be decimated, the genie would have to be put back in the bottle and self determined (or self defeated) to think it would never ever be wise to come out of the bottle again. I just frankly find that unfathomable and see black market, which won't be all that 'dark' overcoming that situation relatively fast, in scheme of things.