Please, let's take predicate products out of the equation. It's completely misleading. Even if it were proven that a Ruyan was sold prior to Feb 2007 in America (this IS the burden), then a 3 piece, completely redundant predicate would be the model.
The predicate of all two piece cigalikes is the KR-808D which wasn't released until well into 2008.
Can we say this is the final word?
I share Roger's belief that Njoy entering the VTM category is something of a game changer, however - it's unclear to me how they wish to proceed. This could be an almighty failure for them - for one, the supply chain as it currently stands simply isn't geared up to deal with them making a full-on entry into the category, so they are bootstrapping with internet sales only to begin with.
If they don't see sufficient interest in their product from their online sales (they may well not - the online space is a pretty hairy one for Njoy these days, despite their origins here), they may well dump it.
That said, don't forget the other part of the equation: Europe. The European market will be played very well by people like Njoy, who have much to gain from releasing a TPD qualifying product there. It's a complex picture, but Njoy could quite easily have the resources to dominate across Europe (each member state will be implementing the TPD themselves - not together. Think this through).
I would posit that if the FDA PMTA proves too onerous for them, they may well decide to jump ship entirely and focus on Europe.....
So, game changer? Could be, but we'll have to wait and see.
Don't forget that Victory brands are out there too with an enormous market capitalisation buying up everything that moves, presumably following Warren Buffet's maxim. What their plan is is anyone's guess.
I certainly believe that Cigalikes transition plenty of people into APV (I am not going with the rebranding of some of APV into VTM). Over the years cheap APV came about in mall shops, and Internet. So people can start with APV must more easily now.
But the sales numbers of E-Cigs are the majority of "users", and since we know that "users" are using Vaping to quit, I don't see how anyone can rightfully conclude the majority of the people completely transitioning is not coming in actuality from the majority of users. If APV was the majority, I would say the opposite.
Any survey based upon a user group like ECF is going to be biased to the user population with that user group. Back in the day if reading the forums I was, I would have concluded that everyone was overclocking their CPUs, and while the basic users were just buying a certain stepping of a Celeron, and running their dual channel at a higher speed, and getting the benefits of an easy multipler to the memory bus.....and the really Advanced users were using multiple fan,s Zalmann all copper heat sinks, or water-cooling............in actuality that survey on that forum would be entirely skewed. Intel ran the numbers, the real number of overclockers was so small they just ignored it. APV is not unlike overclockers. And ECF is not unlike Anandtech or Toms Hardware. And just like my ability to edit an autoexec.bat or a config.sys and system.ini once needed, those skills are outmoded by better products. Quad Core CPUs once cost 800 each, now they are on phones, you can buy off contract for 200, and the users have no care.
There is no differences between any KR808D and the most advanced APV of today. It boils down to a wicked E-Liquid against a DC coil. The rest is fluff and flair only. Yes they work much much better. But a 1940s Ford car, is still a car, as is a 2014 Ford, still just a car.
It may seem tragic or not glamorous, but it just a coil, and wicked E-Liquid. The end result is clear, its a cloud of vapor. What the FDA is concerned with is the end outcome going into the human. Its just vapor....yes.....Its just a tank holding liquid, still yes, no tank, poly fill....guess what, its still E-Liquid, a wick change only.
I am starting to think that the UK is a pretty different place than the USA as far as retailing of E-Cigs. They are selling Blu and Njoy, at Costco here. Thinks its about 5 dollars for the NJOY King 10 for like 50, if I recall correctly. They move stock fast so it should be the NJOY KING version 2 pretty soon. Every local corner market you can by Blu and V2 disposables, most smoke shops have the replacement Carts in stock.
Beside the differences between the UK and the current US market, It does not seem APV aficionados are keeping up with the leaders in E-Cigs (sticks batteries, Cig-alikes or whatever you want to call the majority of vapers) I am going to use V2 because I think they have the most diverse line, I could also use Apolloecigs, Halo, Blu and others. (I have Zero affiliation with V2 at all, including codes or links. I am a customer of them, my money flows to them, nothing in any form comes back to me, besides my purchases.....nuf said on that)
Everything below is on "stick" batteries, Cigalikes, you will over time the line has blurred between E-Cig and APV terminology.
1. V2 has been selling E-Liquid in bottles for well over a year.
2. All V2 products are classified as Refillable, (well actually see the last item)
3. The sell empty Carts specifically only for filling with E-Liquid
4. They sell in raw and Starter kicks, Clearomizers. They are top coil, with screw on caps, but are not rebuild-able.
5. They sell drip tips, in both metal and silicon.
6. The newest battery have power level indicators LEDs, and better regulation
6. Last month they started selling a IC controlled completely sealed, all liquid atomizer, with No Poly. This is not refillable.
I switched on my 3rd order to the tanks, and never went back to Polyfill. The newest option may put me back to fire and forget mode of of just replace the cart when done, the all liquid carts even have a fluid window. All that said....BLU is a better juice still.
NJOY (Sottera) has already proven it has the best lawyers in E-Cigs against the FDA. Thinking that they don't fully understand what they can do and not do against the FDA, is surely folly of the first class. If NJOY had not done what it did for all Vapers in the Sottera Win, the president established by the FDA could have become entrenched.
NJOY just dropped 75 Million on TV ad campaign paying for a top 10 song to boot. They are not leaving the USA....the UK must be really different, there is no way NJOY is turning tail on the USA leaving the market. And their lawyers have the drop on the FDA too.
In the end, E-Liquid is the E-Cig, and every Vaper or APV user all it doing the same thing....vaping E-Liqud....the cloud is the only thing that touches the consumer.....and the documentation of the E-Juice is the only significant thing that the FDA will require.
The FDA is not going to start checking the quality of regulated power sources....that's for UL to test.
Todays "sticks" still have the Automatic triggering option, a better system than manual (less burning of coils, easier) and the big difference is size. With an automatic E-Cig, I am hands free. With my Itaste VV, I have to use my hand always to hold, and trigger manually....making it less advanced, and less user friendly.
Sure, many people on ECF have switched, or started E-Cigs before the current crop.....but the current crop of E-Liquid Cig-Alikes has nearly full redefined what APV is......with only Mech MODs being clearly different enough.
Cheers
I'm sorry; I had a brain fart. I thought Philip Morris/Altria owned Njoy.
