How will the Vaping Industry look in two years time ?

[evan le'garde]

So, "realistically", how would you imagine the vaping industry will look in a couple of years time ?.


UK regulators have stated that they intend regulation to be ‘light touch’ and as such there should remain a place in the market for small as well as large companies. In January 2016 the MHRA (which will act as the UK competent authority for products regulated under the TPD) consulted on the fees that manufacturers will have to pay to notify their products under the TPD. As part of this the MHRA stressed that: “fees passed on to business will be the minimum possible”.

In April 2016 the tobacco and Related Products Regulations 2016 were tabled and the following fees were confirmed :

Initial notification fee
£150

Annual ongoing fee
£60

Modification fee
£80

I've heard about fees exceeding $300,000 being needed by the FDA in the states for each item registered. Are these figures correct ?.



http://ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_1011.pdf

 

[crxess]

A bit like this

 

[Two_Bears]

So, "realistically", how would you imagine the vaping industry will look in a couple of years time ?.


UK regulators have stated that they intend regulation to be ‘light touch’ and as such there should remain a place in the market for small as well as large companies. In January 2016 the MHRA (which will act as the UK competent authority for products regulated under the TPD) consulted on the fees that manufacturers will have to pay to notify their products under the TPD. As part of this the MHRA stressed that: “fees passed on to business will be the minimum possible”.

In April 2016 the Tobacco and Related Products Regulations 2016 were tabled and the following fees were confirmed :

Initial notification fee
£150

Annual ongoing fee
£60

Modification fee
£80

I've heard about fees exceeding $300,000 being needed by the FDA in the states for each item registered. Are these figures correct ?.



http://ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_1011.pdf

In GrimmGreen's vid today he said he expects 99% of all gear to dissappear.

 

[Jdurand]

It will appear as dreary and unsafe as most black markets are.

 

[supertrunker]

The biggest catastrophe for public health ever is what it will be. To my knowledge only the snus manufacturer Swedish Match has managed to get a product registered with the FDA as reduced harm.

It cost about a million bucks and 100 000 pages of testimony. What vape shops near your house can afford that?

T

 

[Grimwald]

I honestly don't expect things will make it for two years. Now that vaping has been deemed a tobacco product, states will jump on the tax and regulation bandwagon even more than they are now. Some states may follow AR and IN and just outlaw out of state purchases all together. Internet sales and shipping (id needed for home delivery) will be affected. Supplies will dry up and companies will start shutting their doors.

 

[dionysuskiss]

I'm ok, since I started stock piling back in November. It just breaks my heart for all the businesses and employees that will lose their livelihood, because of this. And for smokers who haven't made the switch yet. THIS is why I'm angry. This is why I'll fight to the bitter end. No matter what type of vaper you are, I will fight for your basic rights, and mine!

 

[Rt1Rebel]

At best, the hardware and software will be available from only the largest of concerns, and it will be alot more expensive, those companies will recoup the legal costs of staying in business, and there will be tobacco-like taxes on top of that.

I don't care what the optimists are saying, I'm stockpiling now while it's still inexpensive (and available,) hell, it's the primary reason I turned to vaping to begin with.

 

[Robert Cromwell]

In 2 years we will have cigalikes from maybe 3 tobacco companies. You can get either tobacco or menthol tobacco flavored prefilled cartridges only.
and application fees for each device or variety of ejuice will run around 1 million.

 

[rice721]

Assuming the US & EU makes up the majority of the market: We will be left with a few players (think Big Tobacco). Mods, Tanks, Juice selections will be extremely limited and pricey.

Assuming China, UK and the rest of the vape friendly world (not US & not EU) makes up the majority of the market: We will be left with limited juice flavor options. Chinese manufactured atty's, mods, etc will still be where we are today.

 

[Robert Cromwell]

Assuming the US & EU makes up the majority of the market: We will be left with a few players (think Big Tobacco). Mods, Tanks, Juice selections will be extremely limited and pricey.

Assuming China, UK and the rest of the vape friendly world (not US & not EU) makes up the majority of the market: We will be left with limited juice flavor options. Chinese manufactured atty's, mods, etc will still be where we are today.

Nope the imports have to approved by the FDA to be sold in the USA.
they are setting up systems in customs now to watch for illegal imports of vaping gear.

Think Singapore folks.

They are also setting up groups to prowl the net looking for illegal vape sales and such.

 

[rice721]

Nope the imports have to approved by the FDA to be sold in the USA.
they are setting up systems in customs now to watch for illegal imports of vaping gear.

Think Singapore folks.

They are also setting up groups to prowl the net looking for illegal vape sales and such.

Yes, but if the US isn't the biggest or even a major market for vape products I don't see why the Chinese won't keep on producing what its producing now. Although I do believe the US is a significant chunk currently.

 

[Robert Cromwell]

Yes China will be ok and you can still get UK juice.

OOPS just noticed your location and that I misread your post.
Sorry.

 

[Tommy-Chi]

Psssst, Hey you, yes YOU, do you wanna buy some nic?

 

[rice721]

Yes China will be ok and you can still get UK juice.

OOPS just noticed your location and that I misread your post.
Sorry.

no harm no foul. sadly uk juice isn't as abundant as us juice in China. Malay juice is however but not so sure about their standards.

 

[moze229]

My opinion - not much will change in two years. All of this stuff has been looming for some time, and it's going to take considerable time for it all to take place. There was strong talk of this back in 2009, and it's JUST NOW getting put down on paper. One thing you can count on with govt. - it takes them forever to get anything done.

Realistically in the long-term, e-cigs will be sold by big tobacco mostly. There will be a few that will foot the bill for FDA expenses, but most won't. Imports will be highly regulated, so that eliminates about 100% of what's out there now. After all, this is all being pushed by big tobacco in dark rooms. Not only that, but once an industry turns into a billion dollar industry, the govt. WILL step in to take their cut. It's just too juicy for them to pass up. NONE of this is about safety. This is all the same thing that happened with cigarettes on replay.

If govt. really cared about safety, cigarettes would have been banned decades ago. The only reason they are still around is because of the tax money collected. Period. Marlboro sells a $5.00 pack of cigs - after states and feds get their cut - $4.00 of that is tax. They want the same for e-cigs. That's what this is all about.

 

[Train2]

I don't believe it will be possible for the FDA to prevent online ordering from foreign vendors.
I don't believe it will be possible for the FDA to prevent substantial black markets - for juice and for small modders.
However, the FDA will stifle all U.S. manufacturing innovation, and will shut down pretty much all vape shops.
The only surviving "authorized" products will be tobacco company cigalikes from a couple brands and with a few flavors (tobacco, menthol, and maybe a fruit). And maybe one or two large companies will be authorized to sell those in a shop, perhaps even marketing a juice line - think NJoy. Maybe Halo.

So what the industry will look like is this:

• Millions who MIGHT have vaped, will not - because it will be difficult, bashed, and unlikely to satisfy with readily available products. They'll keep smoking.
• Some will try a Blu or an NJoy product, then Google for advice, maybe find us here, maybe get steered towards online ordering of actual vaping equipment. From China.
• All the small liquid vendors will go under eventually, or go underground.
• And people will make it, get it from China, or something like that.

I have one other possible scenario that I'm not gonna divulge, in case I figure out a way to own a piece of it.


And that is IF NOTHING CHANGES about those regs during the next two years.
People, hopefully, will effectively scream bloody murder and sue and force the FDA to back off. God I hope so.
Not so much for me - I'm kinda all set....but for everybody else that needs vaping for their health, and all the good people working in the business, innovating the technology.

 

[Fajar]

It's sad and frustrating to see the vaping industry in the US being put under heavy pressure by the FDA. If there's any way a foreigner like myself can help support you guys I'm all in! Some of us are also following the news updates and progress on what's going, for we fear that what's happening in the US could potentially affect the vaping industry on a global scale.
I've the read the comments about the upcoming restrictions on the import of vaping gear, and i would like ask your thoughts on the export of vaping gear from the US. Has the FDA also put regulations on exports as well?

 

[Oliver]

The biggest catastrophe for public health ever is what it will be. To my knowledge only the snus manufacturer Swedish Match has managed to get a product registered with the FDA as reduced harm.

It cost about a million bucks and 100 000 pages of testimony. What vape shops near your house can afford that?

T

It's actually worse than this: Despite the 100k+ page submission and the millions spent (way more than $1m) Swedish Match FAILED to have an MRTP (modified risk tobacco product) granted. This, if granted, would have allowed them to tell some of the truth about their product (Swedish Snus) - that it's basically harmless, and at the very minimum it's vastly safer than smoking.

No, what they were successful in achieving was a PMTA. Essentially, and as I understand it, this PMTA was to allow them to market their Snus in a pouch with a slightly different formulation to the old pouch. The original pouch had been withdrawn in Sweden in 2011! So it took nearly 5 years for SM to be allowed to upgrade the pouch for the US market.

Quite honestly, that's like a teabag manufacturer having to wait 5 years to put on the market a new teabag.

And here's the thing that totally sucks. Swedish Match is in many ways a model tobacco company: they've completely divested of cigarettes and are firmly in the tobacco harm reduction camp - and yet they're being massively disadvantaged against their competition: cigarettes.

This regime is what vape faces.

 

[WillyZee]

in two years we will be swamped with overpriced cigalikes ... what we had for Vaping ... will be known as an Urban Legend.

and ... The Black Market will be thriving