How will the Vaping Industry look in two years time ?

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rico942

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I can see it now. Nicotine sniffing dogs in airports and border crossings to make sure you're not smuggling vape products into the US.

Having crossed the border to and from Mexico literally hundreds of times for medical and dental treatment, I have observed CBP's "drug-sniffing dogs" over a 12 year period, and they are a sad hoax ...

The dogs used in the vehicle lanes are half-crazed by hours of breathing intense exhaust fumes, I've seen them go berserk and attack their handlers in an effort to escape ...

Indoors in the pedestrian lanes, the dogs are immersed in a combination of perfumes, body odor, and the reek of decaying facilities, compounded by industrial cleaning fluids and the stench of poorly maintained public restrooms ...

The worst example is when they assault women and girls at a certain time of the month. I could not think of a way to describe that more delicately ...

I'm certain that dogs can be trained to detect large volumes of illegal substances in controlled conditions. But a small quantity of nicotine in a closed container, in a malodorous environment ? Not a chance. The dogs can only reach most people below the knees, and if they try to climb higher, they are restrained immediately, to avoid a panic ...

So I suppose that its advisable not to carry "contraband" in your shoes ...

My sympathy is with the dogs, they didn't ask to be subjected to chaotic conditions and a constant assault on their senses ...
 

beckdg

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in two years we will be swamped with overpriced cigalikes ... what we had for Vaping ... will be known as an Urban Legend.

and ... The Black Market will be thriving :blink:
You and I will be known as 2 legends in our own minds with closets full of urban legends.

That's a fact, Jack. (Sorry, bad with names)

Tapatyped
 
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Tempesta

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It's impossible to predict what will happen. Let me point out, however, that amazing things can be built in people's garages. In WWII, the British actually designed a submachine gun that could be built by the French Resisitance in bicycle shops. I kinda think that people could build mods as well. Prohibition simply doesn't work. I just hope that organized crime doesn't get a foothold in this black market, too.
 

7sixtwo

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It will appear as dreary and unsafe as most black markets are.

Oh, I don't know. Some black markets are lively and cheerful. :D

If things stand as they are in the ridiculous regs, I expect I'll become an occasional "smuggler", bringing proper gear back from Mexico, (for personal use only).
 

WillyZee

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1-black-market.jpg
 

WillyZee

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The way I hear it, in two years, you will have exactly what you have today.

The question is "what will 3 years look like?"

Cuttwood via Gearbest

the way I see it ... there will be less than half of what we have today ... in under a year.
 

smacuser

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    It's 90 days before new products can no longer be bought to market.

    It's two years before manufacturers need to apply for approval. After that, another year for the applications to be accepted or denied.

    Deeming Regulations For Dummies Soundcloud
     
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    WillyZee

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    It's 90 days before new products can no longer be bought to market.

    It's two years before manufacturers need to apply for approval. After that, another year for the application to be accepted or denied.

    I get that part ... however, in less than a year, there will be a ton of people exit the vape market.

    Who can really survive this market with no innovation or new products?

    Also, there are a lot of juice brands that already know they will not survive ... I expect some of them to move onto something else sooner than later. The writing on the wall is not good. I have heard of juice brands where the money guys behind them don't vape or smoke ... those guys will be out first.

    IMO, we will notice a big change in available product in as little as 4 months.
     

    smacuser

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    I don't see it.

    I'm seeing there's tons of inventory, and everyone's drawing from the same well. No new innovations doesn't necessarily mean no business. Production will continue until the regs are inforced 2 to 3 years from now. It's only the manufacturers that will need to comply, not the retailers.

    Kind of off-topic, but down here, we have tobacco shops that sell vaporizers only meant to be used for tobacco. With other emerging industries, these devices will be remaining on the shelf for some time until a government agency is able to grapple with that can of worms. And if they do, I know of at least 4 states that might not comply.
     
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    lynn508

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    I really think it will still be here. They have done more harm to the .gov brand than they realize. So many people don't believe them any more. After this there will be a battle but I truly believe it will have to be changed. Anyone in this day and age who sets the bar for advancement 7/8 years earlier is an idiot and it shows.
     

    grim

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    I'll post my 2 cents here.

    I was around for the dark days of snus. There were so many brands. I used it to quit cigarettes and haven't smoked in nearly 10 years.

    Then the frickin FDA happened. Much the same as you all feel, the snus community was ....... The FDA, in their typical fashion, ignored ALL scientific evidence of snus being a harm reduction product. They even banned the way some pouches were made and the color of them. As someone else stated, it took Swedish Match 5 years to even get some leeway and they did it by forcing the FDA to read a 100000 page paper as a big middle finger because the law states that the FDA MUST review all proposed literature on a product under this act.

    The reactions to how the industry would change were the same doom and gloom of you guys. The biggest problem was a lot of people just gave up and went back to smoking thinking the end was here. The companies that fell through mostly disappeared due to lawsuits (Marlboro and Camel are owned by two different companies. One in the USA and the other rights to those name are owned by a separate company internationally) which forbid sale to the USA under copyright rules. Other companies then went out of business due to the corrupt sideshow the EU is. No smokeless tobacco of any form is permitted by sale (but you can smoke all you want-they're perfectly ok with that) and it even got to where they were pushing Sweden to ban snus to the point there was talk of Sweden leaving the EU.

    However, after the initial fallout, companies realized there was nothing the FDA could really do. Even to this day, you can get online and order snus directly from Sweden. Hell, they don't even take the time to put those gaudy "This will kill you" stickers on there anymore. Newer companies since then have come into fruition and are quite profitable both domestically and abroad.

    The point is. This is bigger than Snus and the few in the states that used it. There are more companies that can jump on and fight the FDA. There will be a bigger grass roots movement as well. I can't remember anyone even knowing what snus was back when the regulations dropped on it. I will venture to say that there will be some things to happen that we won't like in the regulations part. I can see cost going up but I honestly doubt the vaping landscape will change much if at all.

    Like I said, I've seen this before and everyone thought we would no longer be able to buy snus and it is far less popular than vaping. Then once the smoke cleared, companies said screw it-what's the FDA going to do? And it's been fine ever since.

    There will be a fight and I doubt the multimillion dollar vaping industry will fold this easily.

    Yes, Snus had big tobacco behind it but this time around I think there will be more consumers involved and all will end up fine. I see this as the first major opportunity to embarrass the idiots at the FDA.
     

    Robert Cromwell

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    The way I hear it, in two years, you will have exactly what you have today.

    The question is "what will 3 years look like?"

    Cuttwood via Gearbest

    You can pick up some Halo while you're at it.
    Maybe correct, but I expect that without some rules changes. Most juice makers will be shut down in 2 years as they cannot afford the testing fees associated with filing a PMTA application.
    Nor will many hardware makers either have the money or not choose to spend it on the PMTA application process.
     
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