On the plus side, vaping has passed critical mass - they cannot wipe the trend away with scare tactics and poorly written legislation, though they are still trying.
But there's big big money in the fight - coming from pharma and tobacco companies, and a few misguided legislators who either kiss up to those industries, or who actually believe that vaping is some dangerous new drug craze.
Because of that big money, there is the sad possibility that we'll see some drastic changes making it far more difficult for vaping to thrive as an industry. Many fears, I think, are misdirected, and so I'd like to posit my "Worst Case" so that perhaps some folks can take it into account and strategize:
1) VERY tight regulations and high taxation on Nicotine. This could include "no online ordering" and could include massive registration fees for vendors. You'd see the Nic sourcing reduced to a few big companies. It's POSSIBLE that Nic would ONLY be legally distributed to "registered nicotine VENDORS" (see #2) effectively creating a black market.
2) VERY tight regulations and high taxation on e-liquid containing nicotine. They could require hefty registration fees, lab inspections, and age-verification requirements to process orders. You'd see all the small liquid vendors killed, and a few really large ones would survive, but prices would likely double. I don't see how they can stop someone from selling a flavored VG/PG blend (add your own nic, if you can get some). Call it whatever you want - there's nothing about some food flavoring and Vegetable Glycerin that would allow interference. You'll see labels "For Use In Fog Machines" wink-wink.
3) Many vape shops - B & M's - will die. Well, let's face, many are going to die anyway, as many have a poor business model. But the fact is that the number one area in which a vape shop can profit is the e-liquid. You can't run a storefront selling $20 ecigs in competition with direct-from-china, or selling the OCCASIONAL high end mod in competition with online vendors, or selling coils at $2 a pop. You have to sell a ton of JUICE which has a massive markup.
4) They'll have a tough time stopping people from making, talking about, and buying little boxes that hold a battery, or little steel tanks that screw on a battery tube. So there will still be products to vape with. But the whole INDUSTRY will SLOW DOWN. Why? Because the effect of killing small juice vendors, and many of the small vape shops, will make it LESS EASY for a smoker to decide to try vaping and quit.
5) BT will push their products. I'm starting to see it now, but my expectation hasn't been FULLY realized: I expect them to model their product on the inkjet industry. Where you buy a printer for...well it doesn't MATTER what they charge for it - because the INK costs more than any other substance on earth. When you can't get Nicotine anywhere else, they can then charge $10 for a SEALED, PROPRIETARY CARTRIDGE of liquid that holds about a days' worth of nic. It's like the cashflow from cigarettes, see?
There will be no refilling, the cartridges will only fit that brand battery, etc. I know that's not what we're seeing yet - but it could still happen.
6) If that happens, then you'll see millions of people vaping stick/ego sized devices made by and marketed by big tobacco compannies. And they'll work OK, so those people may NOT move on to more advanced gear the way most of us early adopters did. The Mods and Atomizers a lot of us use and learn about here will become (remain?) a niche market while the masses puff on mass-market commercial vaping products from a few big companies.
At least people will vape...but they'll do it at the high price of smoking, and with products that benefit the same companies they used to buy cigs from.
Not me though.
The minute the nic regulation part of my prediction begins, I will complete the acquisition of everything I need to keep vaping my own liquid, wrapping and wicking coils for my growing collection of atomizers, for the rest of my life.
That'll cost about $200.