FDA NIDA funded MTF finds sharpest annual decline ever in teen smoking and record low teen smoking rates, but MTF demonizes e-cigs to lobby for FDA deemin

[Bill Godshall]

NIDA funded Monitoring the Future survey found record low rates and record annual declines for “daily” and “past 30 day” cigarette smoking by teens from 2013 to 2014.

Daily cigarette smoking declined 22% by 8^th graders (from 1.8% to 1.4%), declined 27% by 10^th graders (from 4.4% to 3.2%), declined 21% by 12^th graders (from 8.5% to 6.7%).
http://monitoringthefuture.org/pressreleases/14drugtables.pdf
MTF Data Tables and Figures

Past 30 day cigarette smoking declined 11% by 8^th graders (from 4.5% to 4.0%), declined 21% by 10^th graders (9.1% to 7.2%), declined 17% by 12^th graders (from 16.3% to 13.6%).

NIDA MTF survey also found “past 30 day” e-cig use reported by 8.7% of 8^th graders, 16.2% of 10^th graders, 17.1% of 12^th graders, with cigarette smokers and/or exsmokers accounting for the vast majority.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/pressreleases/14drugtables.pdf
MTF Data Tables and Figures

More importantly, MTF survey also found that most teen “ever smokers” reported no use of cigarettes during “past 30 days”, as many/most have switched to e-cigarettes.

Although 33.8% of 12th graders reported ever cigarette use, just 5.9% reported exclusive cigarette use during “past 30 days” and 7.3% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl28.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl29.pdf

Although 21.9% of 10th graders reported ever cigarette use, just 2.7% reported exclusive cigarette use during “past 30 days” and 4.3% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl21.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl22.pdf

Although 8.9% of 8th graders reported ever cigarette use, just 2.3% reported exclusive cigarette use during “past 30 days” and 2.2% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl14.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl15.pdf

But despite finding record annual declines in teen cigarette smoking and record low teen smoking rates, Obama’s NIDA funded MTF survey press release lobbies for FDA deeming reg/ban by focusing on and demonizing e-cigs, which have never been found to create daily dependence in any nonsmoker, nor serve as a gateway to smoking, nor cause any disease.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/pressreleases/14cigpr.pdf

Liberal news media repeat MTF press release criticisms of teen experimentation with e-cigs, fail to report record annual decline in teen smoking, downplays record low teen smoking rates.
Teen E-Cigarette Use Steams Past Smoking, Survey Finds - US News
Survey finds teens trending toward e-cigarettes - SFGate

Please note that during the past four years (since FDA first stated its intent to impose deeming regulation), the MTF survey began including questions about cigars, hookah and dissolvables, and this year MTF began inquiring about "past 30 day" e-cig use. This year, MTF contained lots of new tables (Tables 14-34 of tobacco Tables) comparing use of cigarettes with e-cigs, smokeless tobacco, unflavored little cigars, flavored little cigars, and large cigars to lobby for the FDA deeming regulation (by trying to conflate teen use of far less hazardous OTP with the former epidemic of teen cigarette smoking).

Another thread was started in media general news citing one of these news articles. But I'm posting this survey data on the FDA news thread because this is yet another federally funded health agency lobbying for the FDA deeming regulation.

The NIDA funded MTF researchers are holding a press conference in DC this morning to announce their findings, and to further demonize e-cigs (which they know very little about) so the news media (and ANTZ) will further call for FDA to impose the deeming regulation (which would ban >99.9% of e-cigs now on the market).

 

[skoony]

thanks Bill.
what i don't get is with the teen smoking rates going down,
apparently in Hawaii and Connecticut e-cig use is sky rocketing.
regards
mike

 

[NorthOfAtlanta]

Just another ANTZ case of figures lie and liars figure.

 

[pennysmalls]

Where is the accountability? I mean, it doesn't take an enlightened rocket scientist to see the facts. Teen smoking has gone down, e-cig use has gone up and e-cigs should be banned? The logic is plain for anyone to see yet they act like the general population is to stupid to know any better, so they can spin and spin and spin because they think no one sees the spinning. These people who are doing all of this spinning need to be held accountable. Seriously.

 

[AndriaD]

Where is the accountability? I mean, it doesn't take an enlightened rocket scientist to see the facts. Teen smoking has gone down, e-cig use has gone up and e-cigs should be banned? The logic is plain for anyone to see yet they act like the general population is to stupid to know any better, so they can spin and spin and spin because they think no one sees the spinning. These people who are doing all of this spinning need to be held accountable. Seriously.

That's probably because the general population *IS* too stupid to know any better. They see a headline, and think (if one can really call it "thinking") "oh, the FDA thinks e-cigs are bad, so they must be bad." And that is TRULY all the "thought" they're prepared to give it, before rushing off to see which kardashian ..... is in the news today, and how big that pumpkin at the end of Kim's spine has grown now.

Really.

Andria

 

[Kent C]

Bill:

"NIDA MTF survey also found “past 30 day” e-cig use reported by 8.7% of 8th graders, 16.2% of 10th graders, 17.1% of 12th graders, with cigarette smokers accounting for the vast majority."

I wonder about how this is established. One would have to ask (and the answer would have to be true and not hiding anything former behavior) "Have you ever smoked cigarettes?" Because if someone is asked: "Do you smoke cigarettes?" and the answer is "No." And then are asked "Do you use ecigs?" and the answer is "Yes." ... one could conclude or include those who answered "No." as 'non-smokers' who use ecigs And I wouldn't put it past ANTZ to so interpret it that way. Many kids, while acknowledging that they use ecigs, might not be so willing to acknowledge that they used to smoke.

 

[anendeloflorien]

I was reading a MSM article on this report this morning and they were trying to characterize the decline in cigarette use and increase in e-cigarette use as some horrible health crisis. I think we all know that kids are going to get their hands on cigarettes or vaporizers if they want them, I never had any issue getting smokes as a teenager, so is it really so terrible that they are gravitating more towards PVs?


Here it is:
Survey finds teens trending toward e-cigarettes

 

[Bill Godshall]

The MTF survey is actually the first survey to document that many teen exsmokers are now exclusive e-cig users and dual users of cigarettes and e-cigs (by comparing "ever smoker" data to "past 30 day smoker" data). But of course, the MTF authors buried this data in different tables, and MTF's press release never mentioned any of these truly important findings.

Among 33.8% of 12th graders who reported ever smoking a cigarette, MTF found that during the “past 30 days” 16% reported no use of cigarettes or e-cigs, 4.6% reported exclusive e-cig use, 7.3% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs, and just 5.9% reported exclusive cigarette smoking.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl28.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl29.pdf

Among 21.9% of 10th graders who reported ever smoking a cigarette, MTF found that during the “past 30 days” 10.0% reported no use of cigarettes or e-cigs, 4.9% reported exclusive e-cig use, 4.3% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs, and just 2.7% reported exclusive cigarette smoking.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl21.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl22.pdf

Among 13.3% of 8th graders who reported ever smoking a cigarette, MTF found that during the “past 30 days” 6.6% reported no use of cigarettes or e-cigs, 2.2% reported exclusive e-cig use, 2.2% reported dual use of cigarettes and e-cigs, and just 2.3% reported exclusive cigarette smoking.
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl14.pdf
http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/14data/14tobtbl15.pdf

 

[Bill Godshall]

Following up on my previous analysis of MTF data, below are percentages of teens (i.e. ex-smokers, current smokers and never smokers) for each grade who reported using an e-cig in the past 30 days. Please note that ex-smokers are "ever smokers" who haven't smoked during past month, while smokers are "ever smokers" who smoked during the past month.

12th Graders
7.3% were Smokers (dual users)
4.6% were Ex-smokers
4.3% were Never Smokers
17.2% Total (differs from reported 17.1% due to rounding)

10th Graders
4.3% were Smokers (dual users)
4.9% were Ex-smokers
7.0% were Never Smokers
16.2% Total

8th Graders
2.2% were Smokers (dual users)
2.2% were Ex-smokers
4.1% were Never Smokers
8.5% Total (differs from reported 8.7% due to rounding)

While the MTF found “past 30 day” e-cig use reported by 8.7% of 8th graders, 16.2% of 10th graders, 17.1% of 12th graders, the MTF authors unethically failed to report that teen smokers and ex-smokers were far more likely than never smokers to report e-cig use. Based on MTF data, I calculated the following percent of teen smokers, ex-smokers and never smokers in each grade that reported "past 30 day" e-cig use.

Past 30 day e-cig use

12th Graders
55% of smokers (.073 / .132 = .55)
22.5% of ex-smokers (.046 / .204 = .225)
6.5% of never smokers (.043 / .664 = .065)
17.1% Total

10th Graders
61% of smokers (.043 / .07 = .61)
33% of ex-smokers (.049 / .148 = .33)
9% of never smokers (.07 / .782 = .09)
16.2% Total

8th Graders
49% of smokers (.022 / .045 = .49)
25% of ex-smokers (.022 / .088 = .25)
4.7% of never smokers (.041 / .867 = .047)
8.7% Total

So MTF found that e-cigs have been primarily used by teen smokers and ex-smokers (including many who switched to e-cigs), but also found that e-cig experimentation has increased by teen never smokers.

We know that increasingly more teen smokers are switching to vaping (for the same reason many adult smokers now vape).

But why might increasingly more teen "never smokers" be experimenting with e-cigs?

I suspect the answer is at least partially due to the many dozens of fear mongering press releases issued by CDC, FDA, FDA funded UCSF, Big Pharma funded CTFK, ACS, AHA, ALA, AAP, Congressional Democrats, State and Local Health agencies and politicians, etc. that have generated thousands of news stories claiming that lots of teens are now using e-cigs.

Nothing like repeatedly daring teen never smokers to use e-cigs, and then claiming "we're outraged" when more teen never smokers begin experimenting with e-cigs.

 

[pennysmalls]

That's probably because the general population *IS* too stupid to know any better. They see a headline, and think (if one can really call it "thinking") "oh, the FDA thinks e-cigs are bad, so they must be bad." And that is TRULY all the "thought" they're prepared to give it, before rushing off to see which kardashian ..... is in the news today, and how big that pumpkin at the end of Kim's spine has grown now.

Really.

Andria

Yeah, I agree. The general population wouldn't know a whole lot in regards to the safety or danger of vapor or the statistics on teen smoking or vaping. But the spin wizards at the FDA do, and they know that we know that they know, yet they continue to play this game. There needs to be oversight committee assigned to the FDA.

 

[pennysmalls]

In regards to Bill's last post....teen never smokers who are experimenting with vaping is an issue that is going to be at the forefront very soon I think, just not in the popular gateway theory kind of way. In more of a recreational fashion. My son, 17 years old, has expressed interest in wanting to try vaping. He is not a smoker, plays on the high school football team, works out everyday and basically loves staying fit. Yet his interest is growing because he sees his friends doing it and he thinks it smells so good and looks like "fun".

Adult never smokers are also taking up vaping as a means to diet and/or cut out sweets.

 

[AndriaD]

In regards to Bill's last post....teen never smokers who are experimenting with vaping is an issue that is going to be at the forefront very soon I think, just not in the popular gateway theory kind of way. In more of a recreational fashion. My son, 17 years old, has expressed interest in wanting to try vaping. He is not a smoker, plays on the high school football team, works out everyday and basically loves staying fit. Yet his interest is growing because he sees his friends doing it and he thinks it smells so good and looks like "fun".

Adult never smokers are also taking up vaping as a means to diet and/or cut out sweets.

I really find as little wrong with teens doing it as adults doing it, for whatever reason, but then, I'm not a puritan who thinks that simple enjoyment is somehow "evil," "sinful," or "wrong."

I haven't been a teen for 34 yrs, but it STILL seems to me that a lot of grownups just EXIST to sit around thinking up ways to piss off and harass teenagers. Like they're so jealous of the fact that they are no longer teenagers, they just have to vent that spite by doing everything possible to make teenagers' lives a misery. And I've often thought that many people have children just so they can have short people at their mercy that they can boss around irrationally, with total impunity.

Andria

 

[JustMeB]

" One important cause of the decline in smoking is that many fewer young people today have ever started to smoke tobacco cigarettes. In 2014, only 23 percent of students had ever tried tobacco cigarettes, as compared to 56 percent in 1998. Of particular concern is the possibility that e-cigarettes may lead to tobacco cigarette smoking, and reverse this hard -won, long-term decline." (From the pdf posted)

Not sure what the "many fewer" part is about, but my first question would be, did they even ask if these kids were vaping with nic or without? I didn't see it anywhere in the pdf. Then the second would be, why do they assume vaping without nic would lead to smoking cigarettes at all? I agree with an earlier post. Some kids just think it looks cool. My 10 yr old said he doesn't want to start smoking or vaping, but he thinks it "looks cool" and would like to know how he can blow smoke too without smoking cigs and/or using an ecig,

 

[AndriaD]

" One important cause of the decline in smoking is that many fewer young people today have ever started to smoke tobacco cigarettes. In 2014, only 23 percent of students had ever tried tobacco cigarettes, as compared to 56 percent in 1998. Of particular concern is the possibility that e-cigarettes may lead to tobacco cigarette smoking, and reverse this hard -won, long-term decline." (From the pdf posted)

Not sure what the "many fewer" part is about, but my first question would be, did they even ask if these kids were vaping with nic or without? I didn't see it anywhere in the pdf. Then the second would be, why do they assume vaping without nic would lead to smoking cigarettes at all? I agree with an earlier post. Some kids just think it looks cool. My 10 yr old said he doesn't want to start smoking or vaping, but he thinks it "looks cool" and would like to know how he can blow smoke too without smoking cigs and/or using an ecig,

Next thing you know, they'll be taking the "bubble" stuff off the market... too much like smoking, wouldn't want to give the tykes the idea that it's ok to blow ANYTHING.

I always wonder if any of these "experts" have any memory whatsoever of their own youthful years, of how it felt to have self-important grownups bleating self-righteous BS at them constantly.

Andria

 

[pennysmalls]

I really find as little wrong with teens doing it as adults doing it, for whatever reason, but then, I'm not a puritan who thinks that simple enjoyment is somehow "evil," "sinful," or "wrong."

I haven't been a teen for 34 yrs, but it STILL seems to me that a lot of grownups just EXIST to sit around thinking up ways to piss off and harass teenagers. Like they're so jealous of the fact that they are no longer teenagers, they just have to vent that spite by doing everything possible to make teenagers' lives a misery. And I've often thought that many people have children just so they can have short people at their mercy that they can boss around irrationally, with total impunity.

Andria

With the way trends in teen smoking appear to be going I say let them vape, blow their clouds in competitions, delight in the flavors and keep them away from tobacco in the process. The clouds are what got me into smoking when I was 9 and a full time smoker by the age of 13. So let these new generations have a choice and it looks like they are choosing. As far as my son goes, my hubs doesn't understand vaping enough to ever let that happen. With my sons love of physical fitness and staying healthy my hubs would pitch a huge fit.

 

[Kent C]

So MTF found that e-cigs are used by many teen ex-smokers (who switched to e-cigs) and by many teen smokers, but also found that e e-cig experimentation has increased by teen never smokers.

We know that increasingly more teen smokers are switching to vaping (for the same reason many adult smokers now vape).

But why might increasingly more teen "never smokers" be experimenting with e-cigs?

I suspect the answer is at least partially due to the many dozens of fear mongering press releases issued by CDC, FDA, FDA funded UCSF, Big Pharma funded CTFK, ACS, AHA, ALA, AAP, Congressional Democrats, State and Local Health agencies and politicians, etc. that have generated thousands of news stories claiming that lots of teens are now using e-cigs.

Nothing like repeatedly daring teen never smokers to use e-cigs, and then claiming "we're outraged" when more teen never smokers begin experimenting with e-cigs.

There were similar results from DARE programs - that reached as early as the third grade at one point. Those more exposed to drug info from DARE were more likely to try them vs. areas where DARE programs were not run.

 

[AndriaD]

With the way trends in teen smoking appear to be going I say let them vape, blow their clouds in competitions, delight in the flavors and keep them away from tobacco in the process. The clouds are what got me into smoking when I was 9 and a full time smoker by the age of 13. So let these new generations have a choice and it looks like they are choosing. As far as my son goes, my hubs doesn't understand vaping enough to ever let that happen. With my sons love of physical fitness and staying healthy my hubs would pitch a huge fit.

So... educate him! It's been apparent to me for a long time that my husband might have a hard time tying his shoes, without my guidance.

(I'm kidding of course... sorta... )

Andria

 

[AndriaD]

There were similar results from DARE programs - that reached as early as the third grade at one point. Those more exposed to drug info from DARE were more likely to try them vs. areas where DARE programs were not run.

Really? My son did the DARE thing, yeah, in grammar school. But he's never evinced the SLIGHTEST interest in illicit drugs, and extremely little even in drinking. I think he's more than a little afraid of drinking, given his family's history -- alcoholism as far back as one cares to look, and the propensity to that does seem to be genetically linked. He was only 4 when we quit, so he doesn't really remember too much of it, but he got to see his grammy in every stage from giggly to belligerent, so he knows exactly how it can change the nicest person into a raging monster, and he knows how my mom's alcoholism affected me. I think he figures it's better if he never goes there.

Andria

 

[Kent C]

Really?

Really.

Ineffective DARE (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) Program Remains Popular

D.A.R.E. doesn't work, study finds

"It hurts me to sit here and tell you that D.A.R.E. does not work, said Dennis Rosenbaum, the author and head of the Criminal Justice Department at the University of Illinois. But it's time for us to go back to the drawing board and figure out how it can be improved or what better ways we can spend our money on drug education in this country.

Rosenbaum's six-year study finds that kids in the D.A.R.E. program used the same amount of drugs as others. Perhaps the researchers most surprising conclusion: D.A.R.E. actually appears to have an adverse÷ effect on drug activity in suburban communities.

Kids in the suburbs who were exposed to the D.A.R.E. program, who participated in D.A.R.E., actually had significantly higher levels of drug use than suburban kids who did not get the D.A.R.E. program, said Rosenbaum. This was very disturbing to us. "

 

[AndriaD]

Really.

Ineffective DARE (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) Program Remains Popular

D.A.R.E. doesn't work, study finds

"It hurts me to sit here and tell you that D.A.R.E. does not work, said Dennis Rosenbaum, the author and head of the Criminal Justice Department at the University of Illinois. But it's time for us to go back to the drawing board and figure out how it can be improved or what better ways we can spend our money on drug education in this country.

Rosenbaum's six-year study finds that kids in the D.A.R.E. program used the same amount of drugs as others. Perhaps the researchers most surprising conclusion: D.A.R.E. actually appears to have an adverse÷ effect on drug activity in suburban communities.

Kids in the suburbs who were exposed to the D.A.R.E. program, who participated in D.A.R.E., actually had significantly higher levels of drug use than suburban kids who did not get the D.A.R.E. program, said Rosenbaum. This was very disturbing to us. "

I guess it's sorta like telling someone "don't think of pink elephants." After an injunction like that, what else would one think of?

All I ever did, personally, was in response to those TV commercials, "Talk to your kids about drugs." I'd turn to him and say, "just so you know... doing drugs is a really bad idea. Unless you just really WANT a screwed-up life." He'd nod, like "DUH!"

Andria