CDC survey found that teen smokers were 31-45 times more likely than nonsmokers to have used an e-cig

[Bill Godshall]

In sharp contrast to the CDC’s false and misleading fear mongering claims about e-cigs and youth last month (to lobby for the FDA deeming regulation that would ban e-cig sales to adults), the National Youth tobacco Survey (NYTS) found that smokers were 31–45 times more likely than nonsmokers to have used an e-cig.

More specifically, the CDC NYTS data on e-cig use by 6^th-12^th graders (when compared with NSDUH and MTF survey data on teen smoking) finds that:
- in 2012 “past month smokers” were 45 times more likely than “nonsmokers” to have used an e-cig in “past 30 days”,
- in 2011 “ever smokers” were 31 times more likely than “never smokers” to have “ever used” an e-cig, and
- in 2012 “ever smokers” were 40 times more likely than “never smokers” to have “ever used” an e-cig.

According to the September 6, 2013 CDC MMWR at
Notes from the Field: Electronic Cigarette Use Among Middle and High School Students — United States, 2011–2012
the NYTS found, that among 6^th-12^th graders:
- “ever use” of an e-cig increased from 3.3% in 2011 to 6.8% in 2012 (with 6.17% by ever smokers and .63% by never smokers), and
- “past-30-day use” of an e-cig increased from 1.1% in 2011 (with .8% current smokers and .3% nonsmokers) to 2.1% in 2012 (with 1.6% current smokers and .5% nonsmokers).

The CDC, however, hasn’t released the 2012 NYTS data for “ever use” or “past-30-day use” of cigarettes (to prevent truly objective data analysis). But the 2012 NSDUH (page 45) at http://www.samhsa.gov/data/NSDUH/2012SummNatFindDetTables/NationalFindings/NSDUHresults2012.pdf provides “past month” use of cigarettes by 12-17 year olds, who are in 6^th-12^th grade that was surveyed by the NYTS.

Key NSDUH cigarette smoking data (to compare with NYTS e-cig usage data)

2011 – 7.8% of youth (ages 12-17) smoked a cigarette in past month, and 92.2% didn’t
2012 – 6.6% of youth (ages 12-17) smoked a cigarette in past month, and 93.4% didn’t

2011 - 10.26% (.008/.078 = .1026) of past month smokers used an e-cig in past 30 days
2012 - 24.24% (.016/.066 = .2424) of past month smokers used an e-cig in past 30 days

2011 - .33% (.003/.922 = .0033) of nonsmokers used an e-cig in past 30 days.
2012 - .54% (.005/.934 = .0054) of nonsmokers used an e-cig in past 30 days.

Thus, from 2011 to 2012, the percentage of “past month smokers” who used in an e-cig in “past 30 days” increased from 10.26% to 24.24%, while the percentage of “nonsmokers” who used an e-cig in “past 30 days” increased from .33% to .54%.

In 2011, “past month smokers” were 31 times (.1026/.0033 = 31.09) more likely than “nonsmokers” to have used an e-cig in “past 30 days”.

In 2012, “past month smokers” were 45 times (.2424/.0054 = 44.89) more likely than “nonsmokers” to have used an e-cig in “past 30 days”.

Since the CDC hasn’t released NYTS cigarette smoking data for 2012, and since the NSDUH and the Monitoring the Future (MTF) don’t survey 6^th graders, to estimate the percent of “ever smokers” among 6^th-12^th graders (among whom 9^th graders are the median), the percentage of “ever smokers” among 8^th and 10^th graders in the 2012 NSDUH and MTF surveys were averaged to be 19.6% (i.e. .103 + .155 + .248 + .277 / 4 = .196).
http://www.samhsa.gov/data/NSDUH/2012SummNatFindDetTables/NationalFindings/NSDUHresults2012.pdf (see data on page 155 of 2012 NSDUH)
The MTF survey data are also at
http://www.monitoringthefuture.org/data/12data/pr12cig_1.pdf

If 19.6% of 6^th-12^th graders “ever smoked” a cigarette and 80.4% “never smoked” in 2012, then 31.5% (.0617/.196 = .315) of “ever smokers” had “ever used” an e-cig, and just .78% (.0063/.804 = .0078) of “never smokers” had “ever used” an e-cig. Thus, “ever smokers” were 40.4 times (.315/.0078 = .404) more likely than “never smokers” to have “ever used” an e-cig.

 

[Uma]

That's quite a tongue twister, yet it clearly shows what's really going on.

From now on, I'm dubbing Bill as Indy. He's uncovered more facts and gemstones than Indiana Jones ever knew existed. Plus he's great with the whip in the comment sections of dastardly media articles.

 

[Talyon]

My eyes hurt now..... But I think my brain feels better?

 

[wv2win]

Bump for another important post from our great friend, Bill Godshaw. ECF vapers, we all need to wake up, join and support CASAA and contact our congressmen and senators or else the future will be very dim.

 

[AgentAnia]

Bravo, Mr. G! Do I hear heads exploding? It must be the CDC statistics spinners...

 

[Rickajho]

Bill, I'm curious. Do you know if the CDC has been recently threatened by proposed funding cutbacks? (Or even outright elimination, for that matter.) I'm just trying to understand what is really behind the CDC's sudden attempt to appear relevant in this matter. It's amazing (not) how lazy some of these agencies can become - until/unless their funding or existence is threatened.

Any idea?

 

[wv2win]

Bill, I'm curious. Do you know if the CDC has been recently threatened by proposed funding cutbacks? (Or even outright elimination, for that matter.) I'm just trying to understand what is really behind the CDC's sudden attempt to appear relevant in this matter. It's amazing (not) how lazy some of these agencies can become - until/unless their funding or existence is threatened.

Any idea?

Could it be that former CDC employees find gainful employment after leaving the CDC with, say, Big Pharm?

 

[unknown_shooter]

I just can't put any weight at all behind using statistics based on surveys of children..

When I was in school, and got a survey about drugs, I filled them all out..

......? yup, .......? yup, .........? yup - 3x per day.. ...? yuuup! <--- drug names deleted to protect the innocent!

All of these statistics are based on self-reports of a group of the population that is under extraordinary pressure to "fit in" - not to be truthful.. I'm pretty sure my own actions influenced my friends (who weren't drug users) to mis-report their own use..

After 40+ years of surveys, at some point isn't someone going to admit that that survey they filled out 38 years ago wasn't truthful, and you shouldn't be making policy based on it?

 

[Bill Godshall]

Rick inquired:

Bill, I'm curious. Do you know if the CDC has been recently threatened by proposed funding cutbacks?

Dont know about potential budget cutbacks, but according to today's NY Times editorial (based upon fear mongering claims by DHHS Secretary Sebelius) at
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/12/opinion/rolling-the-dice-on-food-borne-illnesses.html?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which looks at disease outbreaks rather than at food products, has furloughed about 9,000 of its 13,000 employees, leaving only 4,000 on the job.

 

[Vocalek]

My question for the CDC's Tom Frieden is this: If your guess is correct that using e-cigarettes will create nicotine addiction that leads youth to begin smoking tobacco cigarettes, how do you explain the fact that during the years 2009 through 2012, when experimentation with e-cigarettes was growing, past 30-day smoking rates were steadily decreasing, reaching an all-time low in 2012? And if there are no facts whatsoever to back up your guess, why is your press release worded in such a way as to make the SWAG sound as if it were proven fact?

And if, Stanton Glantz and other ANTZ are correct about e-cigarette use keeping smokers from quitting, explain why smoking prevalence rates suddenly began to drop in 2010 (after 20 years on a plateau) and have continued downward since, and sales of cigarettes have also dropped.

 

[JD4x4]

I've been waiting to look at the 2012 data myself since their first biased press release, and now another one without data for scrutiny?

Every day that passes is another day that my faith in government erodes.

 

[wv2win]

Evening bump...........................

 

[NorthOfAtlanta]

Vocalek, I think your being way to polite calling it a SWAG, there's absolutely no science behind it.

 

[Uma]

Rick inquired:


Dont know about potential budget cutbacks, but according to today's NY Times editorial (based upon fear mongering claims by DHHS Secretary Sebelius) at
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/12/opinion/rolling-the-dice-on-food-borne-illnesses.html?

Yet they retain time and effort to campaign against eCigs. Wow.

 

[Vocalek]

I've been waiting to look at the 2012 data myself since their first biased press release, and now another one without data for scrutiny?

Every day that passes is another day that my faith in government erodes.

The CDC may not have asked students about smoking beyond the "during the past 30 days" question on the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS). When I looked at table of rates, I noticed that daily smoking was reported only for odd years. The number is bland for even-numbered years.

The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration (SAMHSA), however, conducts a survey every year, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). This is administered to people of all ages, and the youth results are reported by age (12 through 17) rather than by grades like the CDC's school-based NYTS. So it is because of SAMHSA that I know that the youth smoking rates have been going down and reached an all-time low in 2012.

Results from the 2012 NSDUH: Summary of National Findings, SAMHSA, CBHSQ

See Figure 4.4 Past Month Cigarette Use among Youths Aged 12 to 17, by Gender: 2002-2012

And Figure 5.8 Past Year Cigarette Initiation among Youths Aged 12 to 17 Who Had Never Smoked Prior to the Past Year, by Gender: 2002-2012