FDA What happens if/when

[AndriaD]

Well, I would not quit. I also feel it is my duty to practice civil disobedience when faced with laws I do not agree with. I am quite sure I am not alone on this. Show of hands?

Agree 100%; I've practiced that type of civil disobedience since 1975, and have no plans to stop.

I think the black market will be inevitable, lucrative and once again the money and the power will be snatched up by the bad elements. Criminals and the government. Yes I am aware that is redundant

"A man with a briefcase can steal more money than any man with a gun." --Don Henley

Unfortunately the gov't has both, briefcases AND guns, so they can steal even more than that!

Andria

 

[AndriaD]

the ordinance would be seen as either unenforceable or so low on totem poll that it is treated as not worthy of much enforcement.

It would serve simply as another "handle" by which the "authorities" might harass citizens who are suspects in some more-serious crime, for which there is yet little evidence -- just like possession of that "other stuff" -- it would give them a reason to harass/incarcerate while they look for the evidence of that other crime.

Which looks exactly like "miscarriage of justice" to me, a violation of the constitutional right not to be held without evidence or arrested without probable cause, but they keep bending the law until it no longer resembles anything constitutional.

To cops, it's "them" against 'everyone else' and no one's rights matter one whit but their own.

Andria

 

[Jman8]

Let me be clear...

I don't think there will be no black market.
I just don't think a black market is a good solution for anyone.

So why offer it as a solution to our problems?

I think reality of black market is better solution than preaching doom and gloom that purports or implies vaping products will be impossible to obtain should the current legislation or regulation go into effect. I think it is intellectually honest to bring up the black market in most of these discussions, rather than ignore it, and pretend that current legislation, if passed, will end vaping as we know it.

I do not think black market is the only solution to our problems, and for where things are right now, I don't see it as best solution. But it could become a solution (or even best solution) in a world where vaping is unjustly deemed illegal and you'd rather not be viewed as possible distributor with the presumably higher risks that come with that. So, those not stocking up, stand to have less risk than those who are, as those who stock up could possibly be seen as black market distributors. And, IMO, some of them likely are. I would say the majority are not, but as the laws / enforcement will be fairly cut and dry, it would obviously be in any black market operator's interest to claim 'but this 55 gallon drum of liquid nicotine was only intended for personal use.'

I think a better solution to black market is to address core issues of what we are up against, such as anti-smoking lies and whether or not persons under 18 ought to be allowed to ingest nicotine products that are legally distributed to adults. If we are too gun shy to deal with those, then I think we are playing into their hands and that they are likely 3 steps ahead of us, as we have become very predictable in what our politics are. So, the black market option becomes a way to let them know that regardless of how harsh they wish to go, they will lose.

Apart from this, I think we have science on our side, but that this could change soon (as anti-smoking junk science continues to go unchallenged, and if they were right about that, then how could vaping junk science be so wrong). And I think we possibly have court battles that could swing a few issues our way, but of course will happen after the fact of legislation being passed and around same time that black market operators will seek to meet demand of those who didn't stock up, and didn't take the risk that a black market operator does.

 

[Kent C]

For drinking there was no alternative.
For vaping there is, and that is cigarettes.

Also, I think a lot of people who currently vape would just quit vaping, or switch to zero nicotine.
And many would have a stockpile of supplies already if they don't think they can stop or go down to zero.

And I think people that haven't started vaping are not very like to start through a black market.

To me, that leaves a small percentage who would risk a black market.

And I'm not so sure the biggest risk of a black market is the risk of getting caught.
I know for me it wouldn't be considered the biggest risk.

I don't want to inhale anything that anyone could just throw together in their kitchen without any market forces to control for quality.

Some good points there. As far as numbers go, it would really be hard to calculate, but I think there are millions of vapers who understand the value of vaping vs. cigs and that value would be what would drive the black market demand. I think that there are a small (miniscule?) fraction of those vapers who have 'planned ahead' - or who haven't planned far enough ahead to where there may be some 'delay' in total demand but that would grow.

Pretty sure you're right about those who smoked but never vaped. They'll be paying big bucks on cigs, but if the black market is thriving, some of those will switch - not knowing anything about what could be degraded in eliquid and there will be some who will attempt to take advantage of that.

While there may be some degradation in quality, as in prohibition, the level of communicating such problems is so much greater now vs. then, and will only continue to grow, where information on quality will move rapidly. This, imo, will nearly remove the 'bad product' factor in almost all markets except for perhaps the total newbie market. Even though the market would be black, it still would have the incentive for 'good stuff' like any free market. There is a current unmentionable analogous market that does rather well in most areas. And those who didn't measure up to the demand would - again, like the free market - not do as good as those who do - and ..... there would be no gov't subsidies to bail them out - no 'too big to fail' policy

AND, IF tobacco companies are allowed to produce cigalikes or closed tank systems, then all that said above about those who smoked but never vaped not being part of the market, goes out the window and they too will be seeking and seeing, better ways to vape.

 

[DC2]

I think reality of black market is better solution than preaching doom and gloom that purports or implies vaping products will be impossible to obtain should the current legislation or regulation go into effect. I think it is intellectually honest to bring up the black market in most of these discussions, rather than ignore it, and pretend that current legislation, if passed, will end vaping as we know it.

I do not think black market is the only solution to our problems, and for where things are right now, I don't see it as best solution. But it could become a solution (or even best solution) in a world where vaping is unjustly deemed illegal and you'd rather not be viewed as possible distributor with the presumably higher risks that come with that. So, those not stocking up, stand to have less risk than those who are, as those who stock up could possibly be seen as black market distributors. And, IMO, some of them likely are. I would say the majority are not, but as the laws / enforcement will be fairly cut and dry, it would obviously be in any black market operator's interest to claim 'but this 55 gallon drum of liquid nicotine was only intended for personal use.'

I think a better solution to black market is to address core issues of what we are up against, such as anti-smoking lies and whether or not persons under 18 ought to be allowed to ingest nicotine products that are legally distributed to adults. If we are too gun shy to deal with those, then I think we are playing into their hands and that they are likely 3 steps ahead of us, as we have become very predictable in what our politics are. So, the black market option becomes a way to let them know that regardless of how harsh they wish to go, they will lose.

Apart from this, I think we have science on our side, but that this could change soon (as anti-smoking junk science continues to go unchallenged, and if they were right about that, then how could vaping junk science be so wrong). And I think we possibly have court battles that could swing a few issues our way, but of course will happen after the fact of legislation being passed and around same time that black market operators will seek to meet demand of those who didn't stock up, and didn't take the risk that a black market operator does.

As often happens, I agree with almost everything you say...
And yet my gut tells me you are wrong.


There are just little things here and there that I don't necessarily agree with.
But it's the overall picture you paint that comes up short for me.

But I wouldn't at all mind you being right, that's for sure.

 

[zoiDman]

Let me be clear...

I don't think there will be no black market.
I just don't think a black market is a good solution for anyone.

So why offer it as a solution to our problems?

Isn't this Kinda the Nuts and Bolts of the Entire "Black Market" concept?

If Jman8 is correct, and the Black Market is going to Swoop in and take care of Everyone, what does it Matter if people are Discussing Worst Case Scenarios?

We Don't need to Worry about Regulations. And No One Needs to be Active. We can just All sit back and do Nothing. Because the Black Market will Take care of all our needs.

But if Jman8 is Wrong, and the Black Market isn't a Viable Alternative, well, then were kinda Hosed.

 

[Davey59]

Did I miss where the black market was called a solution? It is it even PC anymore to call it that

It is an inevitable consequence, and many will use it. Supply and demand predicates this outcome, pure and simple. Of course I think we all know it won't be cheap, in fact it will be very very expensive.

Ask any drug addict if he can find enough illegal drugs. Look up Joe Kennedy if you don't know who he is.

 

[DC2]

Did I miss where the black market was called a solution?

I think it has been at least implied by some that we need not worry because the black market will always be there.

 

[Tangaroav]

Imo the black market for e-liquids is not a viable solution. I can imagine the horror stories that would result.

The expenses, troubles and the dangers associated with black market will make vaping very unattractive to the great majority of present vapers. Vaping a 0 nic e-juice a is better option for me..

I have been vaping my DIY 10ml at 6mg daily. Assuming PG, VG and flavors remain available, the 0 nicotine is probably the route I would take should regulations force me too. I have a 0 nic objective by early 2015.

.... should hardware also be regulated, then my two Reos will be worthy of inclusion into my will.

 

[Jman8]

Isn't this Kinda the Nuts and Bolts of the Entire "Black Market" concept?

If Jman8 is correct, and the Black Market is going to Swoop in and take care of Everyone, what does it Matter if people are Discussing Worst Case Scenarios?

We Don't need to Worry about Regulations. And No One Needs to be Active. We can just All sit back and do Nothing. Because the Black Market will Take care of all our needs.

But if Jman8 is Wrong, and the Black Market isn't a Viable Alternative, well, then were kinda Hosed.

I'm not saying, haven't said, black market will take care of all possible vaping needs. But, am actually okay being painted this way, if I can paint the doom and gloom side as offering zero hope going forward. If that is not okay, then perhaps we can back off of the hyperbole about what Jman is saying.

If black market has arisen, I am curious what those who disagree with mentioning it now see as the viable alternative (at that time)?

As I see it, that answer would be 'stocking up.' And as I noted, that would be aspect of the black market. Granted, it is preparing one's self so they don't need to go to some other person to get supply, but also could, very likely mean that the person that stocked up is legally viewed as 'black market distributor.' Of course, that will be met with denial, and in many cases, will be accurate. But I'm guessing average American person watching the news and seeing their neighbor get busted for 2 liters of liquid nicotine is not going to understand why that person needed enough supply to last them for 20 years. And instead wonder why the neighbor was engaged in the black market as a distributor, as the authorities are alleging.

 

[ENAUD]

I keep musing every time I read one of these threads, about the what ifs, and wonder if vapers will come together for organized protests, marches, civil disobedience, and even civil unrest, if the deeming regs go too far in the future. I've got a many year supply of nic on hand, barring natural disaster, fire, theft, confiscation, whatever scenario might play out. But we are free adults, with free will, not subjects to an overlord. If enough people make their voice heard, it will be noticed...

 

[AndriaD]

I keep musing every time I read one of these threads, about the what ifs, and wonder if vapers will come together for organized protests, marches, civil disobedience, and even civil unrest, if the deeming regs go too far in the future. I've got a many year supply of nic on hand, barring natural disaster, fire, theft, confiscation, whatever scenario might play out. But we are free adults, with free will, not subjects to an overlord. If enough people make their voice heard, it will be noticed...

And Americans have shown on many occasions that they won't stand still for tyranny, when it becomes so overt that even the purposefully ignorant can't help but notice it.

Andria

 

[zoiDman]

And Americans have shown on many occasions that they won't stand still for tyranny, when it becomes so overt that even the purposefully ignorant can't help but notice it.

Andria

I sure Hope you are right Andria.

But when I look at How Many people submitted comments to the FDA, or will spend the same amount of time as it does to make a Post on the ECF writing the Elected Officials, I have my Doubts.

And it would be Nice to see More People throwing Tea into a Harbor before Regulations and Restriction become Law. Rather than Afterwards.

 

[zoiDman]

I'm not saying, haven't said, black market will take care of all possible vaping needs. But, am actually okay being painted this way, if I can paint the doom and gloom side as offering zero hope going forward. If that is not okay, then perhaps we can back off of the hyperbole about what Jman is saying.

...

Funny how you will ask people to Back Off the Hyperbole. When in previous sentence you Engage in the Same Hyperbole Tactics.

 

[AndriaD]

I sure Hope you are right Andria.

But when I look at How Many people submitted comments to the FDA, or will spend the same amount of time as it does to make a Post on the ECF writing the Elected Officials, I have my Doubts.

And it would be Nice to see More People throwing Tea into a Harbor before Regulations and Restriction become Law. Rather than Afterwards.

Well, that's the thing, the tyranny has to be overt for most Americans to even believe in it, we've all been so thoroughly schooled on America The Beautiful, the freedom and justice for all party line. Until it's truly overt, most Americans think any talk of "tyranny" is originating from the tin-foil-hat brigade, and will go back to their highball and cheezpuffs and reality TV.

It's very hard to believe the absolute worst of an institution you've been raised to revere; I really, really, sincerely doubt that most Germans were behind the excesses of the 3rd Reich -- either they didn't know, didn't believe, or didn't WANT to believe and thus were insulated from ever believing. I'm sure it came as a rude and nasty shock to 99% of Germans that their leaders were such out-and-out villains. And even here in America, when it was still "the colonies," there were quite a few of those who wound up being signatories to the Declaration who, right up till the last possible moment before signing, thought that we might effect some conciliation with Britain -- and even those unfortunates known as "Tories" who were actually pro-British when the hostilities commenced; they just thought they were British subjects, because that's what they'd always been.

Change is always hard, and when it goes against everything you've always been indoctrinated to believe, unimaginably harder.

Andria

PS: historical tidbit: all this trouble with New York? New York was a virtual hotbed of Tory pro-Brit sentiment throughout the lead-up to the Revolution, and even during it. So they've pretty much always been "anti-American" in their politics. It's no wonder they seem so weird to the rest of us now.

 

[Jman8]

Funny how you will ask people to Back Off the Hyperbole. When in previous sentence you Engage in the Same Hyperbole Tactics.

Nope, am okay with this. Jman gets to be the person saying black market will take care of all of your vaping needs and doom and gloomers are the people who are offering zero hope to the vaping community.

 

[zoiDman]

Nope, am okay with this. Jman gets to be the person saying black market will take care of all of your vaping needs and doom and gloomers are the people who are offering zero hope to the vaping community.

OK...

If you think the "doom and gloomers" are Offering No Hope. Hit us with some Hope.

What do You suggest as ways that the Vaping Community can maintain some of the things we have in the Current Un-Restricted Market.

 

[Kent C]

Well, that's the thing, the tyranny has to be overt for most Americans to even believe in it, we've all been so thoroughly schooled on America The Beautiful, the freedom and justice for all party line. Until it's truly overt, most Americans think any talk of "tyranny" is originating from the tin-foil-hat brigade, and will go back to their highball and cheezpuffs and reality TV.

It's very hard to believe the absolute worst of an institution you've been raised to revere; I really, really, sincerely doubt that most Germans were behind the excesses of the 3rd Reich -- either they didn't know, didn't believe, or didn't WANT to believe and thus were insulated from ever believing. I'm sure it came as a rude and nasty shock to 99% of Germans that their leaders were such out-and-out villains. And even here in America, when it was still "the colonies," there were quite a few of those who wound up being signatories to the Declaration who, right up till the last possible moment before signing, thought that we might effect some conciliation with Britain -- and even those unfortunates known as "Tories" who were actually pro-British when the hostilities commenced; they just thought they were British subjects, because that's what they'd always been.

Change is always hard, and when it goes against everything you've always been indoctrinated to believe, unimaginably harder.

Andria

PS: historical tidbit: all this trouble with New York? New York was a virtual hotbed of Tory pro-Brit sentiment throughout the lead-up to the Revolution, and even during it. So they've pretty much always been "anti-American" in their politics. It's no wonder they seem so weird to the rest of us now.

That's right. At that time the tri-cornered hat was considered by the same types, as a tin foil hat. And while there's been some 'transitions' along the way, the Federalists and Tories are more representative of the big gov't types of today. Just the opposite of what some would think.

 

[Jman8]

OK...

If you think the "doom and gloomers" are Offering No Hope. Hit us with some Hope.

What do You suggest as ways that the Vaping Community can maintain some of the things we have in the Current Un-Restricted Market.

1. Realization that FDA proposed deeming regulations won't be as harsh as the doomers and gloomers are predicting (via language that states 99% of all eCig products will be eliminated). This can also be coupled with (1a) realization that FDA current proposed regulations will not be implemented for at least another year, and possibly as much as 5 years.

2. That we have political momentum, and that it is fairly steady and/or growing. That we have a whole bunch of people that will not 'sit back and do nothing' and are motivated not by doom and gloom, but by a whole bunch of factors, not the least of which is "eCigs saved my life."

3. That a black market would come into existence, very quickly to fill in gaps where ANTZ type regulations decided that going overboard was perhaps good policy.

4. That technological advancements will likely carry the industry for a long time to come. In 3 years I've been vaping, the advancements have been noticeable and the market has changed dramatically. Also makes policy makers have to play lots of catch up.

5. That science appears to be on our side, or not favoring ANTZ take on 'harms of eCigs.'

6. That today, and up to this moment, you are living in the Golden Era of vaping. Enjoy it.

 

[DC2]

I keep musing every time I read one of these threads, about the what ifs, and wonder if vapers will come together for organized protests, marches, civil disobedience, and even civil unrest, if the deeming regs go too far in the future. I've got a many year supply of nic on hand, barring natural disaster, fire, theft, confiscation, whatever scenario might play out. But we are free adults, with free will, not subjects to an overlord. If enough people make their voice heard, it will be noticed...

I wish I had written that. I would echo every thought, every concern, and basically ever word of your post.