Altria and Reynolds annual reports indicate escalating War on E-cigs has reduced cigarette consumption decline in 2013

[Bill Godshall]

Today, Reynolds American reported a US cigarette industry volume decline of just 2% in 4Q14 and only a 3.2% decline for 2014 (compared to a 4.6% decline in 2013), indicating the escalating War on E-cigs has reduced previous cigarette consumption declines. Reynolds also reported a 4.9% decline in Reynolds cigarette volume in 4Q14 and a 5% volume decline for 2014, a 1% decrease in American Snuff volume in 4Q14 and a 2.8% volume increase in 2014, and the launch of new heat-not-burn product REVO in Wisconsin
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...ishes_strong_yr_with_4Q14_growth_momentum.pdf
Reynolds American, Inc. - Current Report

Last week, Altria announces industry-wide adjusted US cigarette volume decline of 2.5% in 4Q14 (and 3.5% in 2014), an adjusted volume decline of 2% in 4Q14 (and 3% in 2014) for Philip Morris USA cigarettes (similarly indicating that the War on E-cigs has reduced the 2013 cigarette consumption decline). Altria also announced a 2% industry wide increase in smokeless tobacco volume in 4Q14 & 2014, and 2.5% volume increase for USTTC brands in 4Q14 & 2014.
Altria Reports 2014 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results; Delivers Full-Year Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth of 8.0%

Also last week, Philip Morris International announced a 3.8% worldwide decline in PMI cigarette volume in 4Q14 and a 2.8% decline in 2014, and a .2% volume decline in European Union in 4Q14 and a .1% increase in 2014 (as overall EU cigarette volume declined 3.1% in 2014), indicating the War on E-cigs in the EU is also reducing previous cigarette volume declines.
PMI.com 2015 Press Releases

 

[DrMA]

Now that's what I'd call "gateway" to smoking. Your tax dollars at work.

 

[Bill Godshall]

Today, Lorillard reports a 2% US cigarette industry volume decline in 4Q14 and 3.2% decline in 2014 (which is same as Reynolds reported yesterday); reports Lorillard cigarette volume decline of 1% in 4Q14 and of 2% in 2014; reports $39 million in sales of blu e-cigs in 4Q14 and $165 million in 2014, (compared to $54 million in 4Q13 and $230 million in 2013).
http://www.lorillard.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/LO_Q4-2014_EarningsRelease_FINAL_20150211.pdf

 

[Endor]

That is very interesting, Bill.

Wait for the upcoming spin.... the reduction in cigarette consumption decreases is the result of e-cigarettes being a gateway product, causing young people to pick up smoking after trying e-cigarettes.

 

[Bill Godshall]

For reference, a year ago, Reynolds reported a 4.6% US cigarette industry volume decline in 2013 at
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...owth_as_key_brands_gain_market_share_4Q13.pdf

The difference between 2013's 4.6% cigarette volume decline and 2014's 3.2% cigarette volume decline (i.e. 1.4%) is about
200 million packs of cigarettes.

The 3.2% consumption decline in 2014 represents a decline of about 458 million cigaratte packs.

 

[philoshop]

And the ANTZ propaganda machine rolls merrily on, blissfully unaware of reality. Or perhaps fully aware?

 

[skoony]

i would like to see a break down of age groups.
i am willing to bet the over forty group is reaching
a saturation point of sorts. those of us older folks
concerned about our health as we age v those
who quite frankly don't give darn,gotta die of something
crowd.
of those that are early 20's and younger i think when
they realize a fad is getting more popular tend to move
on to something newer to distinguish themselves from
the herd.
that leaves the early 20's to 40's group who are to busy
pursuing careers and raising families to give much thought
about switching either way as they are still in relatively
good health.
if the rate of decline of smoking continues then the growth
in vaping would inversely slow down. we could wind up with
a flat percentage of vapers v smokers at or about the 18-20%
of the adult population. i believe vaping over time will still make
tremendous inroads into the smoking population my only fear
is there will be a core group of smokers will develop the attitude
that if smoking becomes a problem they'll have those e-cig
thingies to fall back on.

regards
mike

 

[DrMA]

And the ANTZ propaganda machine rolls merrily on, blissfully unaware of reality. Or perhaps fully aware?

Unaware? no, I can hear the champagne popping at UCSF from here