FDA CDC NHIS finds adult smoking rate at record low 17.8% in 2013 (and just 13.7% for daily smoking), refuting CDC claims that e-cigs renormalize smoking

[Bill Godshall]

CDC NHIS finds adult cigarette smoking rate declined to record low 17.8% in 2013, while the daily cigarette smoking rate declined to 13.7%.
Adult cigarette smoking rate overall hits all-time low | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC
Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults — United States, 2005–2013

I think this is the first CDC press release in the past several years about tobacco survey findings that didn't demonize e-cigs.

The CDC has known these survey results for many months (probably before the Aug 8 deeming regulation public comment deadline), but chose to wait until the afternoon before Thanksgiving to announce this news.

 

[DrMA]

Of course, they don't present the data showing smoking rates decline had stalled before the advent of ecigs and only after large-scale uptake of this revolutionary technology did they start their recent and dramatic drop. The ANTZ naturally take credit for this historic decline in smoking rates as begin due solely to their heroic and selfless efforts. Instead they should be asking themselves how much lower smoking rates would have been had they not been gushing FUD slurry about vaping these past 5 years.

 

[Stosh]

Interesting, does this mean the CDC and the feds consider vapers, e-cigarette users as non-smokers?

 

[DrMA]

Interesting, does this mean the CDC and the feds consider vapers, e-cigarette users as non-smokers?

Only when it suits their narrative for claiming success in their anti-smoker efforts. However, when they're looking for more funding, they're just as likely to lump vapers in with smokers and call all of us "tobacco/nicotine users", thus inflating the usage stats and justifying the need for more cash.

 

[twgbonehead]

Cherry-picking.

Why choose the years 2005 and 2013?

A scientifically accurate report would show trends, at least yearly.

Did it stay relatively constant from 2005-2010, and then plummet?

Did it drop precipitously between 2005 and 2007, and then stay constant?
Of course, we know the latter isn't true. Otherwise this success story would have been the headlines 7 years ago.

 

[WhiteHighlights]

As a MA vaper I've been following the craziness in Westminster. In the press release is this disturbing line, my emphasis:

We can bring down cigarette smoking rates much further, much faster, if strategies proven to work are put in place like funding tobacco control programs at the CDC-recommended levels,

See what those tobacco control programs do..http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/fo...26358-grass-roots-tobacco-bans-not-quite.html. The linked docs are interesting reading - oh the webs they weave...

 

[csardaz]

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201409_08.pdf 1997-2014

 

[DrMA]

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201409_08.pdf 1997-2014

Look at that. Between 2003 and 2009, when vaping really picked up, there was no discernible drop in smoking rates.

 

[Kent C]

screen grab:

Yep, level from 2004 to 2009. Wonder what happened in 2007?

 

[Kent C]

Look at that. Between 2003 and 2009, when vaping really picked up, there was no discernible drop in smoking rates.

Tongue in cheek? Vaping really didn't pick up volume until 2010.

 

[DrMA]

Tongue in cheek? Vaping really didn't pick up volume until 2010.

You're right, the 95% confidence bands still overlap between 2010 and 2009. It's only starting with 2011 that a statistically-significant decrease can be claimed, just in time for the effects of increased vaping volume to be measurable at the population level.

 

[edyle]

The trouble with the numbers is they don't mention electronic cigarettes at all, so I'm suspecting that they classify electonic cigarettes as cigarettes.

 

[Bill Godshall]

The CDC issued the report at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201409_08.pdf
in September 2014 (which not only contained 2013 NHIS data, but also early 2014 NHIS data), but CDC waited until Wednesday to tell the news media that smoking rates in 2013 were at record lows.

The NSDUH found that smoking rates among those 12 years and older gradually declined since 2002 (although the NSDUH has traditionally found slightly higher smoking rates than the NHIS).
Results from the 2012 NSDUH: Summary of National Findings, SAMHSA, CBHSQ

Meanwhile, the CDC has acknowledged that overall and per capita cigarette consumption has declined annually since 2000 (just as has occurred for the past 30 years)
Consumption of Cigarettes and Combustible Tobacco — United States, 2000–2011 (see Table 2).

 

[DrMA]

Did they ever propose some explanation for the striking disconnect between what they call "smoking rates" and actual cigarette consumption?

 

[Nate760]

Did they ever propose some explanation for the striking disconnect between what they call "smoking rates" and actual cigarette consumption?

Heh, that would mean they'd have to acknowledge that cigarette consumption is an actual thing that exists, and fat chance of that happening. To do so would undercut two of their most dearly-held orthodoxies.

1. "We've made valuable gains, but the smoking rate is stagnating quite stubbornly, so it's crucial that we get more funding."

2. "All smoking habits are exactly the same. There is no difference between one cigarette per week and three packs a day."

Obviously, we can't go around telling people that 40% fewer cigarettes were sold in 2011 than in 2002, or that the average smoker consumes barely half as many cigarettes as they did a decade ago.

 

[Bill Godshall]

The reason CDC and other federal/state/local health agencies have almost exclusively cited and touted the "past month" cigarette smoking rate for US adults during the past decade (instead of cigarette consumption, daily smoking rate, pack/day smoking rate, or 2nd hand smoke exposure rate) is because the "past month" smoking rate is the only one (of those public health indices) that hasn't sharply declined), and because officials at those health agencies want more tobacco control funding (to keep demonizing all things tobacco and hawk Big Pharma drugs) and more cigarette regulations (e.g. mandatory reductions in nicotine content, menthol cigarette ban).

If CDC highlighted all of the good news about cigarette smoking (instead of continuing to claim "the sky is falling"), the news media and legislators wouldn't endorse the ANTZ lobbying for more tobacco control funding and more federal regulations. Its called propaganda.

That's also why the CDC (and other agencies) have covered up and downplayed the huge decline in "past month" cigarette smoking among teens, while repeatedly misrepresenting and feigning concern about the tiny and irrelevant increase in "ever" or "past month" teen use of e-cigs, flavored cigars and hookah.

 

[Nate760]

That's also why the CDC (and other agencies) have covered up and downplayed the huge decline in "past month" cigarette smoking among teens, while repeatedly misrepresenting and feigning concern about the tiny and irrelevant increase in "ever" or "past month" teen use of e-cigs, flavored cigars and hookah.

You have to give young people credit for being so much less stupid than the ANTZ think they are. They're figuring out tobacco harm reduction perfectly well on their own.