CDC reports US adult smoking rate at new record low 14.9% in first half of 2015

[Bill Godshall]

CDC National Center for Health Statistics reveals NHIS found US adult cigarette smoking rate declined to record low 14.9% (35.5 million) for first six months of 2015, down from a record low 16.8% in 2014.
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201511.pdf (page 55)

Note that the $.61/pack federal cigarette tax hike in 2009 was largely responsible for the significant decline from 20.6% in 2009 to 19.4% in 2010.

But since 2010, no federal and very few state cigarette taxes have been increased, and only several states and large cities have enacted workplace smoking bans since 2010. The only thing that could explain the huge decline in adult smoking since 2010 (from 19.4% to 14.9%) is the skyrocketing growth of vapor products.

Imagine how much further the smoking rate would have declined had Obama's DHHS, CTFK, ACS, AHA, ALA, etc. not repeated false and misleading fear mongering claims about vapor products since 2009 as they've lobbied to ban the sale and use of the products?


Just last week CDC reported the NHIS found US adult cigarette smoking rate dropped from 17.8% in 2013 to new record low 16.8% (i.e. 40.0 million smokers) in 2014, daily smoking rate declined to new record low 12.9% (i.e. 30.7 million), mean consumption by daily smokers declined to new record low 13.8 cigarettes/day.
Smoking rates for uninsured and adults on Medicaid more than twice those for adults with private health insurance | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC
Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults — United States, 2005–2014
U.S. Adult Smoking Rate Falls to New Low
Adult cigarette smoking reaches new low -- but stays stubbornly high among some groups

 

[zoiDman]

Thank you for Posting this Bill.

 

[Kent C]

mean consumption by daily smokers declined to new record low 13.8 cigarettes/day.

Another factor not mentioned much - thanks for posting - for the 'dual users' and how their consumption has also declined, not just the adult smoker stat.

Zeller et al look at dual use as 'renormalizing' rather than 'transitioning' and that stat, tends to support the transition view.

 

[Placebo Effect]

Bill, how do you reconcile this data with Bonnie Herzog going on about the "renaissance" of the combustible cigarette?

 

[this is my name]

From the HealthDay article:

"But as cigarette smoking falls, other forms of tobacco use are rising, King said. "We're seeing increases in the use of e-cigarettes and hookah use, particularly among American youth," he said.

"Going forward, we really need to carefully look at how all the different tobacco products are being used, and make sure we're not simply playing a game of whack-a-mole," he said, referring to the mallet-defying rodents in the well-known game."

I guess they refuse to acknowledge that these "other forms of tobacco"(e-cigs) are a large factor in the decline in cigarette consumption and take all the credit for themselves.

 

[Kent C]

From the WSJ article:

"Reynolds and Altria recently finished a national rollout of Vuse and MarkTen e-cigs to more than 100,000 stores. They offered promotions that gave consumers coupons for free starter kits or packets of cartridges for $1."

Free products tend to reduce sales.

And it's interesting how some like to denigrate the 'anecdotal', but this article uses anecdotes for support of their view. (I'm wondering about the view of Euromonitor, btw - a search tends to show a certain interest in a certain political view). Anyway - anecdotes:

"Delores DeMaria, a 31-year old stay-at home mother from Lake Wales, Fla., tried Reynolds’s Vuse after getting a coupon. She said she choked the first time she used it but continues to take two puffs daily and credits it with cutting her daily cigarettes to two from six. She keeps smoking because cigarettes are easier to inhale than Vuse vapor, which is “so strong and so different that I’ll start coughing.”

Nick Pepper, a 31-year-old waiter in Providence, R.I., had a similar experience with the Blu e-cigarette brand owned by Imperial Tobacco GroupITYBY-2.01% PLC. He had to draw “really, really hard on it to get the vapor out.” He’s back to smoking a half pack of cigarettes a day.

Consumer feedback like that is leading retailers to reduce inventory. Some retailers like Texas grocer and tobacco-shop operator Brookshire Brothers Ltd. have begun requiring that suppliers guarantee that they would buy back products that don’t sell."

 

[Bill Godshall]

Bill, how do you reconcile this data with Bonnie Herzog going on about the "renaissance" of the combustible cigarette?

Cigarette smoking rates are distinctly different than cigarette consumption.

According to NHIS, US adult smoking rate (for the first half of 2015) declined by a record 11% (compared to all 2014),
while US cigarette consumption has declined 1% this year (compared to last year),

I think the key reasons the smoking rate (as measured by NHIS) has been declining at record levels include:
- several million smokers have switched to vaping during the past several years,
- increasingly more smokers won't admit to being a smoker on surveys (as vaping has further denormalized smoking(
- surveys aren't as accurate as they used to be since response rates are low and many people don't have land lines,

I think key reasons cigarette consumption has just declined by just 1% (compared to 4% decline last year) include:
- Gas costs dropped sharply, consumers have more spending money, and most smokers buy cigarettes where they buy gas,
- Some smokers switched back to cigarettes from RYO, cigars, and smokeless tobacco,
- Vaping bans and anti vaping propaganda have reduced the number of smokers who are beginning to vape
(compared to the past few years)

Please note that if all pack/day smokers smoked just one additional cigarette per day, that would be a 5% increase in consumption.

Interestingly, 13 billion packs of cigarette will be sold/consumed in the US in 2015.

But if there are now 35.5 million cigarette smokers (per yesterday's new CDC data),
the average consumption per smoker will be 366 packs in 2015, or one pack/day (13,000,000,000/35,500,000=366).

Except that CDC's 2014 NHIS found that the daily smoking rate declined to new record low 12.9%
(i.e. 30.7 million), and that mean consumption by daily smokers declined to new record low 13.8 cigarettes/day.

In sum, lots of folks lie about their smoking behavior, and under report their cigarette consumption in surveys (just like lie about and under report their alcohol and drug use)

That's why cigarette consumption data and patterns are more accurate than survey responses.
But since CDC has chosen (for the past four decades) to solely rely on their survey data, we should highlight the sharp decline in their surveys.

 

[CarolT]

There goes your seed corn, Bill.

 

[Kent C]

Cigarette smoking rates are distinctly different than cigarette consumption.

Something for all to keep in mind when reading stats.

If 1000 dual users decreased their cigarette consumption from 20 to 10 a day, it doesn't reduce the percentage of adult smokers, but cigarette sales would drop.

On the other hand if 500 of those dual users went to vaping exclusively, and the other 500 went back to cigarettes exclusively and doubled their consumption (not unlikely) - percentage of adult smokers would decrease and cigarette sales would remain even.

 

[pennysmalls]

I always lied about how much I smoked to anyone that asked. I was a pack a day smoker and near the end up to a pack and a half. But if anyone asked I smoked half a pack a day.

 

[AndriaD]

"Delores DeMaria, a 31-year old stay-at home mother from Lake Wales, Fla., tried Reynolds’s Vuse after getting a coupon. She said she choked the first time she used it but continues to take two puffs daily and credits it with cutting her daily cigarettes to two from six. She keeps smoking because cigarettes are easier to inhale than Vuse vapor, which is “so strong and so different that I’ll start coughing.”

How exactly is going from 2 to 6 a reduction? Apparently there are folks even worse at math than I am, which I had thought was impossible, but apparently not -- I can at least handle simple arithmetic.

Andria

ETA: I see the problem now was simply awkward syntax -- TO 2, FROM 6 -- apparently even simple english is beyond some people's ken.

 

[roxynoodle]

I always lied about how much I smoked to anyone that asked. I was a pack a day smoker and near the end up to a pack and a half. But if anyone asked I smoked half a pack a day.

I have chronic pancreatitis. 60% of people who do are alcoholics. When my doctor asked me my alcohol consumption, I replied, "Two to six beers a year."

He hesitated, and I said, "There were a couple of years I had more than six."

He laughed and said they were taught in medical school to double what a woman tells you and multiply what a man tells you by 5.

I said, yes, my boyfriend will tell you a "few.". To him "a few" is 15.

 

[AndriaD]

I have chronic pancreatitis. 60% of people who do are alcoholics. When my doctor asked me my alcohol consumption, I replied, "Two to six beers a year."

He hesitated, and I said, "There were a couple of years I had more than six."

He laughed and said they were taught in medical school to double what a woman tells you and multiply what a man tells you by 5.

I said, yes, my boyfriend will tell you a "few.". To him "a few" is 15.

My stepfather's dad died of cirrhosis... and never had a drink in his life, being raised by fundamentalists and following in their footsteps.

Andria

 

[roxynoodle]

My stepfather's dad died of cirrhosis... and never had a drink in his life, being raised by fundamentalists and following in their footsteps.

Andria

And I guarantee you many doctors didn't believe him.

One of my birds has liver cirrhosis. I guarantee you she's not secretly hitting the bottle

 

[nicnik]

Imagine how much further the smoking rate would have declined had Obama's DHHS, CTFK, ACS, AHA, ALA, etc. not repeated false and misleading fear mongering claims about vapor products since 2009 as they've lobbied to ban the sale and use of the products?

And imagine how much less harrassment vapers would be subjected to.

 

[pennysmalls]

I have chronic pancreatitis. 60% of people who do are alcoholics. When my doctor asked me my alcohol consumption, I replied, "Two to six beers a year."

He hesitated, and I said, "There were a couple of years I had more than six."

He laughed and said they were taught in medical school to double what a woman tells you and multiply what a man tells you by 5.

I said, yes, my boyfriend will tell you a "few.". To him "a few" is 15.

That's hilarious because that totally fits in with how my hubs was. We both hid the fact that we smoked but he would actually tell people he didn't smoke at all. He'd wash his face and hands after smoking to hide it from friends, family and co workers.

 

[AndriaD]

I never hid it. if someone didn't like it... their problem, not mine.

Andria

 

[OldBatty]

- surveys aren't as accurate as they used to be since response rates are low and many people don't have land lines,

Still have land line, will not do phone surveys period! They know who I am, but I have no clue who they are or what kind of data mining they are up to... Ain't going to happen un-unuh, no way, no how, never! Will stop now before I use words that will get me bannanated.