Nicely said. One wonders if ANY government regulatory agency has ever been truly successful....
Depends on how one defines "successful". USSR was "successful" .... until it wasn't. :- )
FDA Date of the Deeming?
- Thread starter Jman8
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Depends on how one defines "successful". USSR was "successful" .... until it wasn't. :- )
- Published in the federal register on or before 2/29/16
- The first two to launch legal action on or before 12/31/16:
TVECA
SFATA
- A "rolling panic" in the marketplace for the next two years (starting on 2/29/16)
- A "rolling black market" with a tipping point in 6/2017
- My NIC and other supply's stash longevity: 2050 (beyond my life expectancy /lol)
Let me know if you need any other good news! /sar
- The first two to launch legal action on or before 12/31/16:
TVECA
SFATA
- A "rolling panic" in the marketplace for the next two years (starting on 2/29/16)
- A "rolling black market" with a tipping point in 6/2017
- My NIC and other supply's stash longevity: 2050 (beyond my life expectancy /lol)
Let me know if you need any other good news! /sar
Nicely said. One wonders if ANY government regulatory agency has ever been truly successful....
the IRS?
Andria
the IRS?
Hmmm.... yep, they can be mighty effective!
Lol.... interesting to note (and a anecdotal point of the 'non-addictive' property of nicotine), I'm using about 2ml/a day less than I was a full peak - 2 years ago - so my stash is going to last longer now, unless things change. I won't 'quit' nicotine because of it's positive effects, but I don't 'need' it as much as I used to.
Likewise. I've halved my nic level very easily over the last 7-8 months, which means my stash will last twice as long. It also means that I don't fear the idea of perhaps halving it again, if things get bad enough for buying nicotine.
Andria
We did pretty much eliminate polio.
If we have an outbreak of food poisoning the source is pretty quickly traced.
but no we need no govt agencies at all...
If we have an outbreak of food poisoning the source is pretty quickly traced.
but no we need no govt agencies at all...
My guess is February 14th is when they will announce.
Then May 14th is when we will not be able to buy nicotine juice.
That being said, I have enough for five years at 12mg/ml. If I go lower, it's even longer.
But, my bet is that: in that five years after the deeming, we will be able to get nicotine juice.
I have all rebuildables, so just will need batteries.
But, with any luck, they will realize just how big a mistake all this deeming was. The U.K. is approving e-cigs in their health system for quitting tobacco. It will be allowed just like the nic patch or gum.
Then May 14th is when we will not be able to buy nicotine juice.
That being said, I have enough for five years at 12mg/ml. If I go lower, it's even longer.
But, my bet is that: in that five years after the deeming, we will be able to get nicotine juice.
I have all rebuildables, so just will need batteries.
But, with any luck, they will realize just how big a mistake all this deeming was. The U.K. is approving e-cigs in their health system for quitting tobacco. It will be allowed just like the nic patch or gum.
The one "ecig" approved by the brits for use int the health system is just an inhaler that looks like a cig. No battery heat, etc.
Infographic of the Voke medically licenced ecig
For what it's worth, the E-voke actually does have an electric heating element. There was some confusion with that and the Voke, which IS just a cig shaped inhaler.
Well Mike, for the sake of brevity I'm going to rub my crystal ball short term and long term.
- Post Deeming/The Final Rule (Short Term) Millions of current smokers will be killed since Vaping, as we know it today, will essentially vanish. The "trend" is already present with a reduction of smokers embracing vaping. A death sentence. For me, it almost brings tears to my eyes. As the "slaughter" rolls out, some current vapers will return to smoking which is a defacto death sentence. I don't have numbers/a metrics to support this guess but from where I sit if you can't get the products then some will just return to smoking and or continue to smoke. Of course the "black market" will flourish but I find the reality that everyone wants to purchase Vaping supplies from Vinnie in a dark alley flawed. It also assumes that the world of Vaping resolves around a forum like ECF which is a flawed assumption.
- Long Term - Although I probably won't be around, many of "you" will experience and benefit from the "green stuff" transition. Think of Colorado
Study it during say the last 20 years and you may see what I am talking about. As Kent mentioned and I have experienced, the real world benefits of NIC. The real world benefits of Vaping/NIC and vigorous support at the state/local level in exchange for tax revenue and the reality that Vaping works. The condemnation of junk science, politicians who are motivated by money will be a thing of the past. Zeller and the rest of the desk killers probably won't even be living on planet earth but "you" will be around to experience this joyful transition./My 2 cents
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Dates selected so far in this thread: (no names attached, cause you know who you are, what you picked):
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- April 26th
- Before March
- Feb. 1st
- June 22nd
- End of May
- Mid year
- By Jan. 8
- June 17th
- Feb. 10th
Jan. 1st- Feb. 29th
- Feb. 14th
- Never/when Hell freezes over
*Crossed off any (or the one) that has already passed
*Bolded the ones that are actual / specific dates
*Underlined the one that is the best answer possible
Well stated.
My crystal ball on this matter: the black market will flourish for a while, as vapers give the proverbial "finger" to the FDA, but then slowly wind down as most of us long-term nicotine users get tired of the hassle of waiting 2 months for a bottle of eliquid from China (that may get seized in customs anyway) and just buy a pack of smokes at the local gas station.
As said many times on this forum, the reality is that the FDA will be handing the nicotine market to the tobacco industry on a silver platter (and with a cherry on top) with this deeming, and the public health groups are singing zippity-do-da right along with it. That really is the sad (and hypocritical) part about all of this.... but of course, there's lots of money at stake, isn't there?
- Long Term - Although I probably won't be around, many of "you" will experience and benefit from the "green stuff" transition. Think of Colorado
...or my home state of California. There already exists a serious double-standard between anything to do with tobacco/nicotine and the "other stuff". At the moment, I'm probably one of the few Angelinos that commutes daily on mass transit (buses, red line subway, Metrolink), and I regularly see people openly smoking "stuff" in very strict non-smoking areas (like on a subway train or subway station) with no repercussions at all. Spark up a cigarette or e-cig, and you're in handcuffs after being shamed by everybody around you.
I actually see the opposite occurring. But I guess it does depend on how black market shakes out or is formed.
With all the people stocking up and knowing DIY, I could see it appearing like there is no black market. Get a few reports from the cigalike-only crowd saying half of them went back to smoking and some go with what's available (or left) on open market and a few have managed to quit altogether, and it'll send message that vaping market is no longer what it was. I imagine that to occur for many months, possibly years.
I imagine there will be chatter (online) that seeks to overcome hurdles of getting product. Most saying, "this is why you were supposed to stock up" or "just DIY and you won't need anyone else." But the few that will be seeking to capitalize on the underground market will plausibly be arranging networks to manage distribution/sales. But because die-hards will be good to go for 5 to 10 years via own stockpile, it won't really seem like underground market is being utilized all that much. In 5 to 10 years, assuming laws and policies are fairly restrictive, I can see vaping making a huge comeback, or underground market seem like it's booming.
If it doesn't boom at any point, then I can see laws getting harsher. This could go either way, in that if business is booming in underground market, there could be desire for harsher penalties. But if more people are getting busted on what public would perceive as trivial concern, then there would arguably be far more backlash from public than if the remaining 10,000 vapers are getting busted and sent to jail for a long time (for having amounts in their house that only a dealer would have).
IMO, it is far better for vaping community to take care of each other, and make sure as many people as possible (that truly wish to vape) have 3 month supply or less on them, hopefully all of the time. Obviously some need to have more, for sure will have more, but if 10 million have short term supply and busts are occurring, the politics (and penalties) will play out differently than if restrictive types are tuned into the fact that with just a few more busts they could virtually eradicate the market.
Essentially, if there is no demand, then supply will be unnecessary and restrictive types will be able to realize end game. If millions are maintaining demand as consumers and not dealers/stockpilers, then I think politics will forever favor underground players rather than restrictive law.
Also, while I think it is likely some vapers return to smoking, I think majority will not. This remains to be seen, but my money is on most vapers rather do some other means of nic use or even stop altogether than go back to smoking. Again, I'm a proud dual user currently, and just calling it like I see it happening. If choice arises down the line between my no longer being able to obtain short term supply of vaping and I either go back to abusive smoking, seek alternate nic supply or quit cold turkey, I'd go cold turkey. I currently see there being a 1% chance of it playing out this way, and likely at least 5 years away or more.
I am fascinated by how things will go in say 2 to 5 years after deeming. Will vapers be in mindset of "fend for yourself" and not caring about any others or will we be united to some degree (like we are now) and realize we are in this together and maintaining a solid market is in our best interest? I'll be advocating for the latter, but for all I know, it will be a fend for yourself mentality that has individuals seeking to isolate/alienate from all other users.
April 1 would seem appropriate. I don't think the FDA will ban bulk nic, however I keep around a 4 year supply of nic at my current tootle puffing rate of 10ml/day and 18mg/ml just in case and will stock more if the word gets out they will. Cost aside, if they hit nic hard I bet some crafty vaping chemist will find an easy way to cook tobacco, lozenges, or gum into base nic in the long run thus adding another entry into the anarchist cook book. When I was a young man we used to isomize "other stuff" and that was long before the web instantly spreading info.
10 milliliters per day?
Since when is that considered tootie puffing?
Hmmm... I can kinda see it; I'm a diehard tootle puffer, but with a Kayfun, I was getting thru 6-8 ml per day, at 9-10w; if I was really chainvaping constantly, with that tank, it could easily get to 10ml, especially if I went up to 12-15w, and/or used dual coils. The outer edge of tootle puffing maybe, but still within its nominal boundaries.
Andria
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