Just for what it may be worth:
1) The 2/16/07 date is hard-coded in the statute. Do a search for it in the PDF, and you'll see that the FDA is not altering it - because it can't. All it can do is to extend a time from for complaince, i.e. give makers of "tobacco products" introduced after 2007 more time to submit an application under the rubric of a "reduced harm" tobacco product, a new tobacco product, or a tobacco product that is "substantially equivalent" to one available prior to that date. The "time extension clock" goes for 2 years, and begins to run after the new reg.s become final. So at that point, no vapor-related "tobacco product" can be on the market unless an application has been submitted and is under review. In fact, unless the product was on the market prior to 3/22/11, it must be pulled off until it gets FDA approval (those which were introduced after the '07 date but before '11 date can stay, while their SE application is under review). See p.122. Or for that matter, Glantz's blog (which I hate to cite as a source but it will do as well as anything for this point): http://www.tobacco.ucsf.edu/
public-comment-fdas-process-documenting-substantial-equivalence-need-high-standards-evidence-and-rea
2) What that means is that 2 years after the rule becomes final, almost every vaping "tobacco product" not yet approved by the FDA will have to be pulled from the market.
3) pp.6-7 and p.11 make it clear that virtually every single piece of equipment currently used by non-cigAlikes is a tobacco product, with the sole exception (probably) of generic batteries. That means coils, cartos, MODs (APVs and mech), and on and on. Even a lousy drip tip will be considered a "tobacco product" that can only be sold to adults, much as cigarette papers are today. Mind you, the FDA could theoretically regulate a 18650 battery under the deeming rule, but as a practical matter it's not going to do that since that would likely interfere with other uses. But there are no other uses for Provaris or even a humble ego spinner. They are deemed tobacco products under the proposed rule, and therefore must pass all the tests described in item #1 above.
4) p.111 makes it clear that registration is required w/i 6 months after the rule becomes final.
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Even assuming that: (1) internet sales continue (i.e. whatever compliance mechanism for age verification that they require isn't terribly budensome); and (2) all the manufacturers register w/i 6 months of the finalization date .... it's very difficult to see how there will be anything left besides BT/BV cigAlikes after that 2-year clock runs down. And since not too many people end up quitting with those, Glantz will have his "dual user" and "lack of cessation" studies in five years.
This is the end of vaping as we know it, and it could happen as soon as 75 days and two years from now. July 2, 2016 I think. However chances are pretty good that the litigation will drag on for a while. But manufacturers of equipment and e-liquid will have little incentive to invest in new plant and equipment, and every incentive to retool.
Eventually the cigAlike industry may die out, too. (Or become absorbed into the BP NRT methods.) How many people will stick with cigAlikes, once there are no flavors (these can be eliminated if the FDA deems them "cigarettes"), they're the same price as tobacco cigarettes, and the use restrictions are just as great?
Perhaps five or ten years from now, there will be a few hardy folks with mechs + RDAs and/or DIY equipment, vaping 0% or maybe DIY e-liquid made from leftover high-concentration nic. that they froze. But those people (and some of you might be among them) ... will be the last of our kind.
At least one of us will live to read Stanton Glantz's obituary.
P.S.: There is still hope for things like the vitAcig. The FDA can't touch a device that's designed and built from the ground up to not use e-liquid dervived from tobacco (ie. it come with a manufacturer-supplied non-consumer-refillable cartridge). The second generation Ploom-type devices which have herbal packets and which heat (but do not vaporize) them are also out of FDA reach, so long as they can't be used for a tobacco product. So there will still be a kind of vaping. Congress will have to act separately to bring those under FDA jurisdiction.
As you know, of course. You're free to gift somebody with cigarettes or a PV and liquid if you want to, or to offer yours for sample.
