Perspective by the numbers

[JelliBean]

An "inverse bell curve" - the company goes bankrupt in the middle? Are you confusing Power Curve for Bell Curve?

Symmetric - that should be fun. Maybe enough datapoints to get a more realistic curve-fit, which would allow for some predictive modeling.

Adrenalynn, a bell curve is a "shape" normal data will have this normal pattern when graphed, but you can always have more than one bell curve, or inverse one from one set of data it depends on your results. In this case the data is from one business, so they actually set their own floor which is their lowest. That doesn't have to be on 0, bankrupt. It would simply be a dip in the middle. That gradually climbed back up. Sorry for the initial confusion, but Thanks for the concern.

 

[Randyrtx]

I've been hanging out in here since October, and it's been great fun watching the growth. If any company ever deserved to succeed big time, it's V4L.

Thanks for putting up the graphs, very enlightening.

 

[henrid84]

shouldnt the graph show number of orders per month not order numbers? i can imagine that is more effective then showing order numbers, that way you can see it go up and down thus watching the stock/sales rise and fall month to month. a good tool for the company and investments

 

[Adrenalynn]

Adrenalynn, a bell curve is a "shape" normal data will have this normal pattern when graphed, but you can always have more than one bell curve, or inverse one from one set of data it depends on your results. In this case the data is from one business, so they actually set their own floor which is their lowest. That doesn't have to be on 0, bankrupt. It would simply be a dip in the middle. That gradually climbed back up. Sorry for the initial confusion, but Thanks for the concern.

"Normal data" will not necessarily have any kind of Gaussian Distribution and it is rarely used in financial math at all as it's a statistics function. A bell curve is the lay-term for a Gaussian Distribution, which is a continuous probability density function, with a peak at the mean and outliers at the lowest points.

I challenge anyone to show me even one business (via value chart, EDGAR link is fine, or any financial reporting index) that has a Bell Curve for a valuation...

And, just as an aside - bankruptcy != 0. If it did, it'd be awfully tough to discharge...

 

[Pawpaw]

Adrenalynn, I'll PM you my order numbers & dates tonight so you can add them to the data if you wish.

Steve, Mark, Leaford, Mariano, Valerie......




Can I have your autograph? Please?

Put it in the comments on your next order.

I've been hanging out in here since October, and it's been great fun watching the growth. If any company ever deserved to succeed big time, it's V4L.:

You got that right!

shouldnt the graph show number of orders per month not order numbers? i can imagine that is more effective then showing order numbers, that way you can see it go up and down thus watching the stock/sales rise and fall month to month. a good tool for the company and investments

Of course! Unfortunately, we can only use the numbers we have available.

 

[Dragonclaws0554]

Not sure if it helps or not, but I placed my order #19551 on 2/1/10 at about 2 pm or so, and as of right now I have batteries charging. It came in today. 3 days from order to in hand, less than 72 hours. They must be handling their increased business really well

 

[jagsfanrick]

Just placed my first order..woot...lol. Your order number is 20264. 5 seconds ago.

 

[Dragonclaws0554]

713 orders in 3 days and still speedy shipping, excellent.

 

[ejoker]

Just placed my first order..woot...lol. Your order number is 20264. 5 seconds ago.

have you taken delivery yet?

 

[jagsfanrick]

have you taken delivery yet?

No, I expect to get it next week.

 

[leeshor]

shouldnt the graph show number of orders per month not order numbers? i can imagine that is more effective then showing order numbers, that way you can see it go up and down thus watching the stock/sales rise and fall month to month. a good tool for the company and investments

I'm thinking that the only way that would make a lot of sense would be to have enough data to be certain you had the total of the orders from the first day to the last day. So far, averaging the orders between a set of days would be as close as you could get.

Besides, there has been no fall from ANY month. All up up and away.

 

[Adrenalynn]

The space between the dots in the vertical IS the number of orders in that period.

If you want to see growth, you look at total numbers. It's also convenient because we have those exactly where, as Lee notes, we don't have exact orders/month. Only V4L would have that. We could never be precisely sure no matter how much data we had. There could always be one (plus) more order or one less order than we think. All we can do is take a snapshot of the moments in time we have - then look at the trendline. That's really all statistics are good for anyway - trendlines.

 

[Symmetric]

Here's a mix of my Data, Adrenalynn and Leeshor's as well. Like Adrenalynn, I also removed the Y axis. I think I'd like to continue this and monitor how it's going... anyone else willing to volunteer data for the cause?

Still looking for pre-7/16 as well, for anyone who has it (I'm looking at you, MaryKay)

Edit: Leeshor, I see your point and although I do think monthly numbers would better serve, I need more data in order to plot it, even rough data (a sale from the first and/or last of ANY month) would be helpful, even if we're 10-15 orders shy of the full lot.

Need more data...

 

[Adrenalynn]

Did you do any smoothing on that plot? Also, is the X-Axis base =0 and the peak of the Y-Axis - could you share a number there? I know we both decided not to give the Y-Axis values (for the same reason) but I realize now looking at yours and trying to decide if it was smoothed or not that we don't have any sense of Y-Axis scale.

 

[Dawnfox]

Symmetric - PM'd my order history to you.

 

[kdcaines]

sent mine as well.

 

[Symmetric]

You guys rock, 75 data points, I'll be updating my graph in just a moment (will appear in #53)

The bottom line is = 0, the top is 25k

 

[Adrenalynn]

Whoever said the growth was exponential - you're not far off!

It's a classic power-curve. I did regression analysis on the 22 datapoints I have from 8/17/09 to 2/3/10 and the R² is 99.8% a perfect classic power-curve.

My best-fit equation is: y=2E-198e^0.0116x

Of course, now that I think about it - that was kinda dumb. Now anyone that survived even Linear Equations could derive any point on the line with 99.8% confidence.

 

[Symmetric]

My best-fit equation is: y=2E-198e^0.0116x

I don't get to say this very often... You just out-geeked me.

 

[leeshor]

Just realized we passed the 20,000 order mark without a contest to guess when. Someone is slipping.