Smokeless electronic cigarettes still banned.

[Traver]

Nice article.

What caught my attention is this:

Industry estimates put U.S. sales of the devices and accessories at $200 million to $250 million annually.

The last figure I saw was about ten months ago and that was $100 million. If these numbers are accurate this is an amazing rate of growth.

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http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110611/business/706119963/#ixzz1Ppntuwg3​

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110611/business/706119963/

 

[rolygate]

See: UK Situation

There is no way to reach the numbers we are at now with less than a 500% per year growth in the UK, and a lot more than that in the US. Run the numbers yourself - from zero in early 2006 to 2 million+ now in the US.

 

[Traver]

I wouldn't be surprised but where does that 2 million come from and what does it mean? 2 million people who have tried e cigs or 2 million vapors using e cigs on a regular basis?

 

[rolygate]

It's from various odd estimates. Various numbers have been quoted such as 2m, 3m, and 4m. However the exact date of the estimate is critical, because with growth way over 500% a year, a number from 6 months back will be miles out. I have chosen to use the smallest estimate, at any given time, because a conservative statement is hard to refute.

It is the figure that is supposed to represent the number of users at any given time - the total of users plus ex-users would be much higher. If the total business is worth over $100m a year then it has to be going somewhere - and the top 5 vendors all do over $10m per year.

It may be safer to simply guess the market penetration as that number cannot be precisely right since it represents millions. It looks as if we have about 2%+ at the moment (i.e. the number of smokers who are now vapers), and this will reach ~6% by 2013. And that's if growth slows down.

 

[Demarko]

Almost signed up to reply to the comment about "smoke in your own house"... Normally, these people don't even read the article, but that ..... didn't even read the HEADLINE.

 

[Jerk]

Finally an article where they're vaping with something better then a kiosk e-cig

 

[Traver]

It's from various odd estimates. Various numbers have been quoted such as 2m, 3m, and 4m. However the exact date of the estimate is critical, because with growth way over 500% a year, a number from 6 months back will be miles out. I have chosen to use the smallest estimate, at any given time, because a conservative statement is hard to refute.

It is the figure that is supposed to represent the number of users at any given time - the total of users plus ex-users would be much higher. If the total business is worth over $100m a year then it has to be going somewhere - and the top 5 vendors all do over $10m per year.

It may be safer to simply guess the market penetration as that number cannot be precisely right since it represents millions. It looks as if we have about 2%+ at the moment (i.e. the number of smokers who are now vapers), and this will reach ~6% by 2013. And that's if growth slows down.

I don't think we are seeing 500% growth anymore. Last year I had figure of $100 million in sales. This article claims $200 to $250 million for this year. Even doubling that number would not support a 500% growth rate in the number of vapors.

What I would really like to know is the percentage of vapors who both vaping and tobacco.

 

[Demarko]

I don't think we are seeing 500% growth anymore. Last year I had figure of $100 million in sales. This article claims $200 to $250 million for this year. Even doubling that number would not support a 500% growth rate in the number of vapors.

What I would really like to know is the percentage of vapors who both vaping and tobacco.

To be fair, though, prices are going down all the time.

 

[Vocalek]

I don't think we are seeing 500% growth anymore. Last year I had figure of $100 million in sales. This article claims $200 to $250 million for this year. Even doubling that number would not support a 500% growth rate in the number of vapors.

What I would really like to know is the percentage of vapors who both vaping and tobacco.

The Tobacco Harm Reduction organization found that 79% had completely substituted e-cigarettes for all smoked ones, with 17% significantly reducing the numer of regular cigarettes smoked, and 4% reporting that they still smoked the same amount. So that would total 21% qualifying as "dual users". http://tobaccoharmreduction.org/wpapers/011v1.pdf

The CASAA survey asked, "What tobacco products do you currently use?" 19.6% said they use cigarettes, and 74.7% said that they use no tobacco products at all. https://www.surveymonkey.com/sr.aspx?sm=HrpzL8PN5cP366RWhWvCTjggiZM_2b8yQJHfwE9UXRNhE_3d

 

[Traver]

Thanks Vocalek, It's good info to have when Need to answer an article that claims people will just become dual users. 20 to 25% dual use is lower than I would have guessed.

 

[rolygate]

It seems likely that most of these groupings are transitional groups - that is, people move into them, then eventually move along into another group.

It looks as if 7% of vapers use zero nic as that is an average of all the polls, and it seems a fairly consistent number. I've always wondered though if this is a transitional group, with people moving into it after cutting nicotine, and some at the other end moving out as they quit totally. That seems a likely scenario to me.

I think there will be a very large group of ex-ecig users who bought a mall / gas station model and were not satisfied with it. Advice / support / mentoring looks to be crucial, and we might be able to increase the user numbers simply by publicizing support services better, so that non web savvy people know what's out there. It always seemed to me that there is a substantial need for some form of formal e-cig mentoring program, though I've no idea exactly what form that would take. Ideally it would be funded by the health service - but then, pigs might fly

 

[Traver]

It seems likely that most of these groupings are transitional groups - that is, people move into them, then eventually move along into another group.

It looks as if 7% of vapers use zero nic as that is an average of all the polls, and it seems a fairly consistent number. I've always wondered though if this is a transitional group, with people moving into it after cutting nicotine, and some at the other end moving out as they quit totally. That seems a likely scenario to me.

I think there will be a very large group of ex-ecig users who bought a mall / gas station model and were not satisfied with it. Advice / support / mentoring looks to be crucial, and we might be able to increase the user numbers simply by publicizing support services better, so that non web savvy people know what's out there. It always seemed to me that there is a substantial need for some form of formal e-cig mentoring program, though I've no idea exactly what form that would take. Ideally it would be funded by the health service - but then, pigs might fly

It seems that support and advice from experienced users about doubles the success rate for quitting tobacco with e cigs. Most of the people who try vaping don't know anything except for the information or lack of it that they get from some convenience store. Unfortunately I don't have a clue about how we could reach these people.