Snails - Response on Threads Part 8

[tiburonfirst]

drat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No Apology, VA Meteorology
1 hr ·
There are still model discrepancies in regards to the exact track, intensity, and effects from Hurricane Florence but they can now be put in two main camps. It’s not looking good.

Camp 1: The GFS model shows Florence landfalling in the Outer Banks as a major hurricane on Friday before slowly tracking up into southeastern VA and eventually turning out to sea. This scenario would lead to major coastal flooding in the tidewater, significant rain across far eastern portions of Virginia, and gale to possibly storm force winds over Hampton Roads and the Chesapeake Bay. Western parts of Virginia would be spared from severe impact.

Camp 2: The European model has consistently showed Florence making
landfall over southeastern North Carolina (somewhere in the Wilmington to Morehead City vicinity) as a major hurricane on Thursday and then gradually bringing the tropical system northward into northern North Carolina and south-central Virginia by Friday night before stalling it somewhere near the Virginia and North Carolina border. Impacts would extend well away from the center. This solution would dump several inches of rain, if not a few feet, across much of the state. Saturated grounds and gusty winds (widespread tropical storm force gusts) would lead to trees being toppled over. A strong northeast to easterly wind (although likely not as strong there as if a camp 1 solution verified) would still lead to coastal flooding along the tidewater. This would essentially be an Isabel type storm with a lot more rain.

Summary: I think both scenarios are very much on the table but I’m leaning towards camp 2 as the Euro seems pretty locked in and the GFS has started slowly trending that way over the past several runs. While strong winds are a concern, I’m most worried about the heavy rains. Due to the slowing down or even stalling of Florence in our vicinity, there is potential for devastating flooding here in Virginia. I would start making storm preparations. Timing in Virginia looks to be late Thursday through the weekend.

 

[AttyPops]

Batten down the hatches, Tibs. Get Geoff into the garage with a saddle and bridle. Maybe you can ride him out through the floods for a quick exit!


Good morning snails.

 

[Katmar]

Good morning Atty

 

[tiburonfirst]

morning, sunshine! not sure geoff will cooperate!

 

[KC0YNU]

Morning Snails

 

[FranC]

tigger knows

Yes he does. Got one round of wood done and it's dang chilly. Of course I was plenty warm.Not moving as fast today....LOL

 

[FranC]

Good morning,Atty and KC

 

[Katmar]

Good morning KC

 

[daleron]

Batten down the hatches, Tibs. Get Geoff into the garage with a saddle and bridle. Maybe you can ride him out through the floods for a quick exit!


Good morning snails.

Morning Snails
View attachment 765613

Good morning Atty and KC.


Lols I thought it was 12 but it’s 11:15 ... yay!

 

[FranC]

4 rounds with the woodpile. I think it won.

 

[Katmar]

Still raining, still windy....and still more tomorrow...Good thing I don't live in a flood zone, or I would be floating down the road to who knows where!!! Hope the rest of you stay safe.

Good evening and goodnight Snails. Sleep well, sweet dreams and a better tomorrow for all

 

[daleron]

Good night Kat



Think I’ll have cereal for supper, not very hungry and it’s just me.

 

[tiburonfirst]

night, kat!

 

[tiburonfirst]

it’s just me.

well, then do what suits you!

 

[daleron]

well, then do what suits you!

I will, I did

Hate when I have a sneezing fit while trying to eat

 

[tiburonfirst]

I did

good for you, dale!

 

[tiburonfirst]

taking miss daisy

 

[daleron]

taking miss daisy

Must be that time.

 

[FranC]

I'm here,tib

Night,Kat

Hiya,dale

 

[daleron]

I'm here,tib

Night,Kat

Hiya,dale

Hi Fran

I’m getting mighty tired, been a long time since 1 a.m.