The Writings On The Wall?

[Caterpiller]

So Philip Morris seem to think the Writings on the wall for smoking - or is there something else going on?

The maker of Marlboro took out a full-page ad saying its New Year’s resolution is to ‘give up cigarettes’

 

[Eskie]

No, part of it is the court ordered ads paid for by BT directly to mitigate the fact they never really stated publicly cigarettes will kill you. All the ads have been public service messages paid for by government or nonprofits.

The other part is they have some belief that they’ll get iqos approved in February and maybe they’re hoping if folks do want off cigs they’ll switch to that so they can still keep the revenue rolling in. Good way to cover both bases.

 

[Caterpiller]

You may be right @Eskie - still one of the world's largest BT companies has just gone on record saying it's consumers should give up cigarettes and look for alternative such as e-cigs - I can't help but think this is good news for vapers in the long run.

 

[Eskie]

You may be right @Eskie - still one of the world's largest BT companies has just gone on record saying it's consumers should give up cigarettes and look for alternative such as e-cigs - I can't help but think this is good news for vapers in the long run.

The only problem is they’re going for an official modified risk product, while e cig companies for the now being not be able to claim any harm reduction or reduced health risk without going through the same ridiculously long and expensive campaign Philip Morris went through for their iqos. Bet they’ll find some way to convince the public their product is way better because of that.

 

[Caterpiller]

Here's another article about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-42539142

Ok, there is a strong sense that BT are looking to protect their revenues as best they can, but still they seem to have conceded that business as usual is not a viable option any more.

If they've stopped funding biased scientific reports starting that vaping is harmful and started investing in e-cigs as a major future revenue stream this has to be positive, no?

 

[Caterpiller]

I hear you @Eskie - I'm sure they have a few more tricks up their sleeves, but they have clearly moved ground quite significantly from where they have been for the last 80 years. I can't help but think that they've crunched the numbers and seen that vaping will destroy them in the long run.

Why else have they moved at all.

I'll admit I know next to nothing regarding the IQOS system, but I'd bet that if they stop making cigerettes and only sell IQOS they will lose an additional significant percent of consumers to vaping, beyond the losses they have already seen in market share.

 

[zoiDman]

So Philip Morris seem to think the Writings on the wall for smoking - or is there something else going on?

The maker of Marlboro took out a full-page ad saying its New Year’s resolution is to ‘give up cigarettes’

The Writing has been on the Wall for a Long Time. And it says "Big Profits to be Made!".

Why wouldn't PMI do something like this?

It...

Attempts to Soften the Image that many People/Regulators have regarding BT.
Promotes their Brand of "e-Cigarette"/Heated Tobacco devices.
Demonstrates to Share Holders PMI's comment to Alternative Revenue Streams.

Not sure how this might Compile with any Legal Settlements in the UK? Because I haven't closely followed BT Litigation in the UK/European Union.

But even if it Doesn't, its still kinda a Win-Win-Win for PMI. And a Drop in the Bucket dollar wise when it comes to Advertising Cost/Budgets.

Here is a couple of Dated articles when PMI started to talk about a "Smoke Free Future".

Philip Morris Is Planning for a "Smoke-Free Future"

Philip Morris shuffles management on its quest toward a smoke-free future

 

[Eskie]

I think it’s always about the revenue stream. BT sees annual falls in the percentage of the population in the US smoking. They want to recoup that revenue any way they can. They’ll offer up products like iQOS and closed system cigalikes to protect themselves. I have little to no hope they will ever do anything to encourage the use of open systems like most of us use. Remember most vapers counted in users are gas station cigalike users. If BT felt they needed to specifically declare war on open vape stuff to protect their bottom line they’ll do it.

 

[CagedSpam]

My opinion only- BT is the Corp(oration). The only thing it seeks is more $ at any turn regardless of harm. Shareholder profit and all that.

If they Co-opt vaping, We'll all be hill people with our DIY stills and wrapping our own ammo...

rant over.

 

[zoiDman]

...

If they've stopped funding biased scientific reports starting that vaping is harmful and started investing in e-cigs as a major future revenue stream this has to be positive, no?

Once Deeming was Finalized, why would PMI, or any BT, continue to Fund Negative Studies?

And don't get the Timeline jumbled. BT has be Investing in "e-Cigarette" development for Years. It isn't like they just started.

 

[Letitia]

Seems like BT is only interested in anything that has a short life span and can be considered disposable. They aren't interested in gear that can rebuilt or will last us into old age. Self sufficient vapers do not contribute to their bottom line as we are not dependent on their product after the initial purchase.

 

[Caterpiller]

Thanks @zoiDman - I see they have been pushing this line for a while now.

Still having just spent 10 minutes researching IQOS I've come to two conclusions:

1.) IQOS does look like a better option than smoking cigerettes.

2.) IQOS doesn't seem to be nearly as appealing or user friendly as today's vaping technology.

IQOS may be BT's last desperate stab at retaining its market share, but I think the vaping door has now been open for too long and has to much inertia.

I could be wrong - I have been before, but I'd bet that vaping will have the lion share of the nicotine delivery products market in 15 years from now.

 

[Eskie]

I wouldn’t view it as a desperation product. Regardless of future performance in the US, it already sells well overseas. And if it a weak product they have plenty of money to get their next best thing on the market.

 

[Sugar_and_Spice]

Seems like BT is only interested in anything that has a short life span and can be considered disposable. They aren't interested in gear that can rebuilt or will last us into old age. Self sufficient vapers do not contribute to their bottom line as we are not dependent on their product after the initial purchase.

But isn't that with all companies these days? What better way to ensure profits than to make products that keep you coming back for more. No, quality for most products on the market(not just ecigs) has given way to more $ being spent to replace the things we feel we cannot live without. so sad.

 

[Letitia]

But isn't that with all companies these days? What better way to ensure profits than to make products that keep you coming back for more. No, quality for most products on the market(not just ecigs) has given way to more $ being spent to replace the things we feel we cannot live without. so sad.

That is the reality we live with and throw our money at. There is an uptrend toward a simpler more self sufficient lifestyle in the 20-30 something age group. Time will tell and each generation will have their own trends.
as far as vaping and government...the lobby just isn't powerful or funded enough. You have to throw around money and vaping industry is too young to have built up the billions BT has to influence policy.

 

[zoiDman]

Seems like BT is only interested in anything that has a short life span and can be considered disposable. They aren't interested in gear that can rebuilt or will last us into old age. Self sufficient vapers do not contribute to their bottom line as we are not dependent on their product after the initial purchase.

Thanks @zoiDman - I see they have been pushing this line for a while now.

Still having just spent 10 minutes researching IQOS I've come to two conclusions:

1.) IQOS does look like a better option than smoking cigerettes.

2.) IQOS doesn't seem to be nearly as appealing or user friendly as today's vaping technology.

IQOS may be BT's last desperate stab at retaining its market share, but I think the vaping door has now been open for too long and has to much inertia.

I could be wrong - I have been before, but I'd bet that vaping will have the lion share of the nicotine delivery products market in 15 years from now.

In a Perfect BT World, the only e-Cigarettes that could be sold in the USA would be Chip Enabled Closed System Atomizers using Proprietary Battery Connections. And a Sky High FDA approval cost process that clears the Board of Minor Players.

And that is a Big Part of what BT pushed/accomplished in the FDA's Deeming.

But a Big Fat Wrench got thrown into things when an election Didn't go as planned. And a New HHS Secretary/FDA Commissioner took the reins.

BT ALWAYS is playing the Long Game. And whereas Complete Market Share was the Goal, raking in Majority Profits would be Acceptable if the alternative is All or Nothing.

Selling stuff that the user has to keep buying Again and Again and Again isn't a Bad Business Model. And BT knows that the Pre-Deeming, all Stocked Up Crowd, isn't going to be their Customers.

So they are looking more at the Next Generation of "e-Cigarette" users. The Ones who Haven't Quit Smoking Yet.

 

[englishmick]

In a Perfect BT World, the only e-Cigarettes that could be sold in the USA would be Chip Enabled Closed System Atomizers using Proprietary Battery Connections. And a Sky High FDA approval cost process that clears the Board of Minor Players.

And that is a Big Part of what BT pushed/accomplished in the FDA's Deeming.

But a Big Fat Wrench got thrown into things when an election Didn't go as planned. And a New HHS Secretary/FDA Commissioner took the reins.

BT ALWAYS is playing the Long Game. And whereas Complete Market Share was the Goal, raking in Majority Profits would be Acceptable if the alternative is All or Nothing.

Selling stuff that the user has to keep buying Again and Again and Again isn't a Bad Business Model. And BT knows that the Pre-Deeming, all Stocked Up Crowd, isn't going to be their Customers.

So they are looking more at the Next Generation of "e-Cigarette" users. The Ones who Haven't Quit Smoking Yet.

That all makes sense. And it could be that there aren't enough of us to particularly bother them. Like they could tolerate a small hobby component to the marketplace. It wouldn't be a big deal to them that some small percentage of hobbyists mix their own juice, or build their own coils and wicks on fussy complicated RTA's. Does Microsoft care that a few geeks assemble their own operating systems on computers they built themselves.

I know plenty of people for whom running a PT on a Spinner is way too much bother.

 

[ENAUD]

Gottlieb seems to be addressing flavors currently...we shall see where that takes us. I agree the writing is on the wall, and I don't think it looks very good for things as we have had them till now? As for us hobbyist and home brewers, we're not even a dot on their radar. That's not going to change until whatever comes to play upon full implementation of the deeming regs has had its effect on the market and things settle down to business as usual. Thats years away at this point. BT is playing multi dimensional chess, and we have been playing checkers, as I see things.

 

[Stoneface]

That is the reality we live with and throw our money at. There is an uptrend toward a simpler more self sufficient lifestyle in the 20-30 something age group. Time will tell and each generation will have their own trends.
as far as vaping and government...the lobby just isn't powerful or funded enough. You have to throw around money and vaping industry is too young to have built up the billions BT has to influence policy.

I would also add that it seems to me much of the younger set are more influenced by Kardashians and YouTubers instead of more informed sources, so BT need only find the next Bieber to hawk product for them. I believe that there are too many poorly self-educated consumers in the market, and most of them are likely to do "what they are told." I personally still know smokers who think vaping is worse than smoking, and I haven't been able to convince them otherwise because of published articles in mass media.

 

[stols001]

Well, whatever BT is saying, I do not trust it. They are either setting themselves up for market share, pushing the IQOS, or doing what they have been told to do by the government.

With that said, there are smokers who have been smokers long enough to perhaps want to try the IQOS, because it is made by BT. Did I think BT was my friend, and the evil government was what was causing the price increase in my cigarettes? I did. And until discovering vaping and really trying HARD, I was pretty certain that BT would be holding my hand (or I would be holding IT in my hand) until the day I died of COPD.

I hope that the IQOS helps some smokers even if *I* think it's messy, complicated, and likely less satisfying than vaping over the long run. I don't begrudge "market share" at the moment, and it's possible that an IQOS user may at some point look for something better. That's a fine progression if you ask me.

With that said, I am not sure how far I trust the government at this time w/r/t vaping and even hobbyist vaping. I continue to buy nicotine.... It's a lot easier to prohibit the sale of something than it is to enter people's homes with guns drawn and demand that all nic and vape products be turned in. At least at this point.

Anna