FDA Business way down because of 8-8??

[sofarsogood]

hoarding and joining the DIY part of vaping is taking its toll. I used to buy 60mls a week from b&m, the rest bought online ,, now I only diy.,, Essential Depot put out some email a month+/- ago saying demand is growing from commercial accounts that is why they had to increase prices.......I don't believe them and said so. with the current state of affairs with the FDA.. more (mixing) shops are likely to close locations not open more locations.

I used to buy quite a bit from Slims. coupons/discounts were more rare,, now its almost every email.. DIY is taking over.

Let's say 8 million US vapers are consuming 35 mg of nic per day. 8,000,000 x 35mg = 280 million mg per day x 365 days = 102 billion mg per year / 100,000 mg in a one liter bottle of 100mg nic = 1 million bottles of nic per year. That's $50 million a year at the typical price. My numbers could be high or low but that's the kind of scale we're talking about. That consumption does not go down by 50% over a few months.

Hardware could be more volatile because most vapers are buying what they want rather than what they need. After a few hundred dollars up front for DIY supplies and a couple of mods and atomizers my cost to vape is well under $100 a year for everything. The vape market is far from that kind of consumer efficiency but it has to be going in that direction and the FDA harassment can only accelerate the process.

 

[zoiDman]

Let's say 8 million US vapers are consuming 35 mg of nic per day. 8,000,000 x 35mg = 280 million mg per day x 365 days = 102 billion mg per year / 100,000 mg in a one liter bottle of 100mg nic = 1 million bottles of nic per year. That's $50 million a year at the typical price. My numbers could be high or low but that's the kind of scale we're talking about. That consumption does not go down by 50% over a few months.

...

Is the 50% Reduction that RTS is reporting reflective of a 50% Reduction in e-Liquid Market Consumption? Or is it a 50% Reduction in Retailer/Wholesale e-Liquid Product Sales for their Company?

 

[sofarsogood]

Is the 50% Reduction that RTS is reporting reflective of a 50% Reduction in Market Consumption? Or is it a 50% Reduction in Retailer/Wholesale Product Sales for their Company?

They report 75% reduction in their own sales and say many shops who are their customers report 50% reduction in sales going back to June. Since most shops seem to get most of their sales from eliquid the 50% number is a puzzle. It's very unlikely that all those vapers stopped consuming their daily ml's of liquid. Where did they go?

 

[zoiDman]

They report 75% reduction in their own sales and say many shops who are their customers report 50% reduction in sales going back to June. Since most shops seem to get most of their sales from eliquid the 50% number is a puzzle. It's very unlikely that all those vapers stopped consuming their daily ml's of liquid. Where did they go?

Not sure those Vapers went anywhere? And consumption could be Relatively Unchanged on the Market Level.

If someone buys a 1L bottle of 100mg Nicotine Base and tries their hand at DIY, and likes it, what Impact would expect to see on Retail e-Liquid purchases for that Person? And would that persons Decrease in buying Retailer Flavored e-Liquids be indicative of a Decrease in mg/day Consumption?

Also, How Much did the Uncertainty of Aug 8th and Deeming in general effect current Inventories that a Retailer may choose to carry during this Transitional Period?

And could Retailers be Pursuing Cheaper sources of Nicotine Bases in an Effort to Maximize Profit Potential knowing that the Market has Changed? And the Sand is starting to Run Out of the glass for them?

I think there are a Lot of Dynamics at Play right Now. And pegging Causality of a Consumption Decreases to a Decrease of 1 Retailer/Wholesaler Sales might be a Misnomer.

 

[EddardinWinter]

My thoughts, exactly. The uncertainty of the vapor market combined with the constant drumbeat of smear from public health (and, like in California, actual Departments of Public Health!) has to have an impact on smokers' choice to convert to vaping. Polls have been trending in the wrong direction, and some now show that a majority of Americans think that vaping is as dangerous as smoking. The smear campaign is working.

I also wouldn't recommend any smoker pick up vaping, either. A year ago, I was effusive about extolling the virtues of switching to any smoker who asked. I fact, I helped a man I met at Union Station (I was taking Metrolink at the time) completely switch to vaping... I was proud of that and happy for him. It is sad, really sad, what the FDA has done.

The FDA should be disbanded, and its leaders charged with crimes against humanity. It is my hope that people will begin to see what is wrong with this agency, beyond the vaping issue. It is corrupt to its core and a corporate lackey masquerading (badly) as a public health agency. The fact that these stooges control what we put into our bodies is just sad.

It also saddens me to not be able to recommend vaping today. I haven't counted, but I'm sure I have gotten over 50 people into vaping in 3+ years. It was such a wonderful industry. I wonder how many of those I introduced to vaping will end up smoking again? Probably over half.

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[sofarsogood]

Now sure those Vapers went anywhere? And consumption could be Relatively Unchanged on the Market Level.

If someone buys a 1L bottle of 100mg Nicotine Base and tries their hand at DIY, and likes it, what Impact would expect to see on Retail e-Liquid purchases for that Person? And would that persons Decrease in buying Retailer Flavored e-Liquids be indicative of a Decrease in mg/day Consumption?

Also, How Much did the Uncertainty of Aug 8th and Deeming in general effect current Inventories that a Retailer may choose to carry during this Transitional Period?

And could Retailers be Pursuing Cheaper sources of Nicotine Bases in an Effort to Maximize Profit Potential knowing that the Market has Changed? And the Sand is starting to Run Out of the glass for them?

I think there are a Lot of Dynamics at Play right Now. And pegging Causality of a Consumption Decreases to a Decrease of 1 Retailer/Wholesaler Sales might be a Misnomer.

I only have hunches. I think that supplier experience is enough of a clue to examine the subject some more. I believe DIY is getting an increasing share of the market but that percent is growing very slowly even with the FDA looming. The vape shop seems to be a social thing for a lot of people. They pay extra for that connection. May be the online nic seller would tell us if his retail nic sales are skyrocketing but I bet they aren't. Changing smoking habits is hard. Changing vaping habits gets harder too. Where did that business go at the retail level?

 

[EddardinWinter]

Now sure those Vapers went anywhere? And consumption could be Relatively Unchanged on the Market Level.

If someone buys a 1L bottle of 100mg Nicotine Base and tries their hand at DIY, and likes it, what Impact would expect to see on Retail e-Liquid purchases for that Person? And would that persons Decrease in buying Retailer Flavored e-Liquids be indicative of a Decrease in mg/day Consumption?

Also, How Much did the Uncertainty of Aug 8th and Deeming in general effect current Inventories that a Retailer may choose to carry during this Transitional Period?

And could Retailers be Pursuing Cheaper sources of Nicotine Bases in an Effort to Maximize Profit Potential knowing that the Market has Changed? And the Sand is starting to Run Out of the glass for them?

I think there are a Lot of Dynamics at Play right Now. And pegging Causality of a Consumption Decreases to a Decrease of 1 Retailer/Wholesaler Sales might be a Misnomer.

Good to see you, zoiD.

Much of what you say is true, and we cannot know causality just yet. However, I'm certain the "new vapers rate" has dropped dramatically. I've got friends in the business locally and they only see vets these days in stores. New vapers tend to be experimenting and buy lots of juice. Vets buy just what they need. Overall sales are way down because of this.

Maybe this isn't true everywhere, with all vendors, but I think it's hard to deny the industry trend.

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[kross8]

Now sure those Vapers went anywhere? And consumption could be Relatively Unchanged on the Market Level.

If someone buys a 1L bottle of 100mg Nicotine Base and tries their hand at DIY, and likes it, what Impact would expect to see on Retail e-Liquid purchases for that Person? And would that persons Decrease in buying Retailer Flavored e-Liquids be indicative of a Decrease in mg/day Consumption?

Also, How Much did the Uncertainty of Aug 8th and Deeming in general effect current Inventories that a Retailer may choose to carry during this Transitional Period?

And could Retailers be Pursuing Cheaper sources of Nicotine Bases in an Effort to Maximize Profit Potential knowing that the Market has Changed? And the Sand is starting to Run Out of the glass for them?

I think there are a Lot of Dynamics at Play right Now. And pegging Causality of a Consumption Decreases to a Decrease of 1 Retailer/Wholesaler Sales might be a Misnomer.

I look at it this way,, vg has tracked oil rightfully. my own vg/pg consumption has actually gone down from 35ml a day to about 25ml now.

pre 8/8 my complete vape stash purchasing was up several 100% in prep. many ejuices/diy' bottle of juice were piffed to other vaping/hoping to vape. I am not surprised in any way about any decline in demand for any vape product. ---------that's my reality.

 

[zoiDman]

I only have hunches. I think that supplier experience is enough of a clue to examine the subject some more. I believe DIY is getting an increasing share of the market but that percent is growing very slowly even with the FDA looming. The vape shop seems to be a social thing for a lot of people. They pay extra for that connection. May be the online nic seller would tell us if his retail nic sales are skyrocketing but I bet they aren't. Changing smoking habits is hard. Changing vaping habits gets harder too. Where did that business go at the retail level?

Yeah... It's just Hard to say what is Actually going on and Why. There just Isn't Enough Verifiable Data to go by.

I do feel that in Many Ways the e-Cigarette Market had "Peeked" both in e-Liquids and in Hardware before Deeming Hit. And perhaps e-Cigarette Usage/Sales had approached the Baseline of what would be seen in a Free Market.

I also think that since there is such a Disproportional Differential between the Cost of Retail e-Liquids and the Cost of DIY (as per mg of Finished e-Liquid made) that Small Changes in DIY Sector can have Large Changes to the Retail Sale numbers of e-Liquids.

 

[KODIAK (TM)]

...Virtually all our wholesale customers report a drop of at least 50% in sales starting in June."

"Wholesale customers" being the key phrase here... I believe it. No surprise either based on the points already made.

That said, I correspond with 2 nic/diy suppliers. Their retail sales are through the roof. Particularly flavorings. The DIY market is definitely digging in.

But the longer this FDA crap goes on without a change, I doubt even these companies can survive on DIY'ers alone. This litigation better move along before too much damage is done.

 

[sofarsogood]

"Wholesale customers" being the key phrase here... I believe it. No surprise either based on the points already made.

That said, I correspond with 2 nic/diy suppliers. Their retail sales are through the roof. Particularly flavorings. The DIY market is definitely digging in.

But the longer this FDA crap goes on without a change, I doubt even these companies can survive on DIY'ers alone. This litigation better move along before too much damage is done.

Are flavorings being regulated the same as all the other componants, etc?

It's comforting to think that DIY supplies are selling well but hard to believe because the people I know who vape are clueless and don't want to know. But if everybody was a frugal as me the vape market would be tiny even if all the smokers switched.

And the kids are a fun story. It turns out the never smokers are interested in clouds and tricks and quite willing to leave out the nic. This makes sense and it means they can get their e liquid in the grocery section at walmart. Will we need photo ID to buy VG at the grocery store?

 

[retired1]

Will we need photo ID to buy VG at the grocery store?

No, as vegetable glycerin is used in other things like making soap.

 

[Endor]

No, as vegetable glycerin is used in other things like making soap.

Unless it can be reasonably expected to be used in conjunction with a tobacco product, at which point it is deemed a tobacco product per the FDA. Remember that zero-nic eliquid, which can simply be VG and flavorings, is considered a tobacco product and must carry a label saying "This product is derived from tobacco".

This is the stupidity we are now facing.

But yes, the sensible argument here is that the bottle of VG you buy at Walmart or CVS for things like soap making or skin moisturizing would still be readily available. Or, at least one would think... our government, of which the FDA is part of, is overreaching all over the place, so who knows what happens several years from now.

EDIT: on second thought, I actually hope the FDA deems VG and 18650 batteries to be a tobacco product. When normal consumers who use VG for whatever reason can no longer get it, and people who own flashlights can no longer get 18650 batteries, perhaps then there will be an up-swelling of frustration outside the vaping community on these ridiculous regulations.

 

[KODIAK (TM)]

Are flavorings being regulated the same as all the other componants, etc?

No. Initially they were in the proposed deeming but not in the final version.

It's comforting to think that DIY supplies are selling well but hard to believe because the people I know who vape are clueless and don't want to know.

I suspect this sales windfall is due to existing DIY'ers like myself reacting to vape armageddon. All anecdotal mind you - I have nothing to base this on. But admittedly, I've certainly bought enough stuff to start my own retail store front should these regulations fall by the wayside.

Will we need photo ID to buy VG at the grocery store?

I wish mine would keep it in stock more than a day. I keep telling them *why* they always run out but the notion eludes them.

 

[sofarsogood]

May be the kids are going to become an important part of the politics for the opposite reason all the grownups have been assuming including us. That could happen if we misunderstood the core appeal of vaping or smoking to someone who has no prior experience with nicotine. You can't buy tobacco that doesn't contain nicotine but 0 mg nic juice is nothing more than a bottle of grocery store VG, flavors optional.

 

[zoiDman]

May be the kids are going to become an important part of the politics for the opposite reason all the grownups have been assuming including us. That could happen if we misunderstood the core appeal of vaping or smoking to someone who has no prior experience with nicotine. You can't buy tobacco that doesn't contain nicotine but 0 mg nic juice is nothing more than a bottle of grocery store VG, flavors optional.

I notice you mention Kids a Lot.

 

[sofarsogood]

I notice you mention Kids a Lot.

I mention them a lot because 95% of the justifciation for messing with vaping is to protect kids. What happens when nic gets taken out of the argument?

When I started following ecig news 2 years ago the stratagy most stories took was to scare adult vapers about their own health. Lately almost all the stories are about how dangerous nic is to children.

 

[zoiDman]

I mention them a lot because 95% of the justifciation for messing with vaping is to protect kids. What happens when nic gets taken out of the argument?

I dunno?

I didn't know that Nicotine was Out of the Argument? Or if it was, would it even Matter?

 

[sofarsogood]

I mention them a lot because 95% of the justifciation for messing with vaping is to protect kids. What happens when nic gets taken out of the argument?

I dunno?

I didn't know that Nicotine was Out of the Argument? Or if it was, would it even Matter?

It's not a danger to children if they aren't using it and apparently many aren't. That's a recent finding by a UofM researcher that's been reported a few places.
Vaping: U.S. teens lured by flavors, not nicotine | University of Michigan News

 

[zoiDman]

It's not a danger to children if they aren't using it and apparently many aren't. That's a recent finding by a UofM researcher that's been reported a few places.
Vaping: U.S. teens lured by flavors, not nicotine | University of Michigan News

By that Study, it reports that 20% of those 10th- and 12th-grade students who used an e-Cigarette used Nicotine.

Do you think that the General Public, Lawmakers and or the FDA is going to Change their Views on e-Cigarettes based on this Percentile?

Even if this Percentile is an Accurate representation of the True Population?