FDA Business way down because of 8-8??

[sofarsogood]

One of the forum suppliers who sells nic says recently "Our sales are down by 75% and we have gone from 31 employees to 18. Many of our wholesale accounts (mostly brick and mortar stores) have or are in the midst of going out of business. Virtually all our wholesale customers report a drop of at least 50% in sales starting in June."

The claim about many vape shops seeing a recent 50% decline in business is surprising, hard to understand. The stores I occaisionally visit seem to survive on regulars who buy e liquid. I don't think they are suddenly vaping 50% less liquid. Anybody have a better idea than me about what's happening?

 

[Lessifer]

One of the forum suppliers who sells nic says recently "Our sales are down by 75% and we have gone from 31 employees to 18. Many of our wholesale accounts (mostly brick and mortar stores) have or are in the midst of going out of business. Virtually all our wholesale customers report a drop of at least 50% in sales starting in June."

The claim about many vape shops seeing a recent 50% decline in business is surprising, hard to understand. The stores I occaisionally visit seem to survive on regulars who buy e liquid. I don't think they are suddenly vaping 50% less liquid. Anybody have a better idea than me about what's happening?

My best guess for shop sales would be less new vapers, due to the smear campaign coming from all sides. As for wholesalers, especially one of nic base and flavorings, I imagine they're taking a big hit from shops that have not decided to be manufacturers and are instead going the retailer route.

 

[Jugband]

I know the company your speaking of, they are extremely reputable, I believe them.
One guess I would have is state regulations. As if the federal regulations aren't bad enough. It seems to me state by state is being slowly shut down. I can think of a few immediately, mine being one, Pennsylvania. We have until October 1st, then 99.9% of vape shops will be forced to close due to state tax. We have it coming from all sides.

 

[Ed_C]

Quite a few people stocked up like there's no vape tomorrow, but that doesn't explain why it started in June. You would have thought there would be an increase right before 8/8

 

[sofarsogood]

Quite a few people stocked up like there's no vape tomorrow, but that doesn't explain why it started in June. You would have thought there would be an increase right before 8/8

If you hang around this forum may be it seems like millions of people must be stockpiling but I bet very few vapers are doing it. Stockpiling does not seem to be enough to make a dent in the supplier's sales decline. If most vape shop customers are regulars they buy hardware because they want it, not because they need it. But most shops seem to survive on e liquid sales and that can't have declined so steeply and suddenly but the shops seem to be saying it has. How can that be? I vape 7 ml's a day every day. Then again I do DIY and wouldn't need to buy any supplies for several years, except for the stockpile of course.

 

[zoiDman]

...

The claim about many vape shops seeing a recent 50% decline in business is surprising, hard to understand. The stores I occaisionally visit seem to survive on regulars who buy e liquid. I don't think they are suddenly vaping 50% less liquid. Anybody have a better idea than me about what's happening?

It's hard to Say what is Going On with the Entire Market? Especially when considering what 1 Retailer reports.

DIY plays a Major Role in all this. Because once most people see the Cost Savings in doing DIY, and get a few Working Recipes done, their Retail e-Liquid spending goes down. In some Cases, Ceases to Exist.

And of Course, their is Stockpiling.

 

[collinsmcrae]

It's simple. New products are what drives the market. Consumerism is a major factor. Without the promise of new products and innovations on the horizon, many will look to utilize what they already own more efficiently.

 

[Ed_C]

It's simple. New products are what drives the market. Consumerism is a major factor. Without the promise of new products and innovations on the horizon, many will look to utilize what they already own more efficiently.

Yeah, except there's more new products in the pipes than ever before.

 

[zoiDman]

It's simple. New products are what drives the market. Consumerism is a major factor. Without the promise of new products and innovations on the horizon, many will look to utilize what they already own more efficiently.

If we were having this conversation 3 Month from now, I think lack of New Products would be More Applicable.

 

[grandmato5]

My best guess for shop sales would be less new vapers, due to the smear campaign coming from all sides. As for wholesalers, especially one of nic base and flavorings, I imagine they're taking a big hit from shops that have not decided to be manufacturers and are instead going the retailer route.

I agree that the forum supplier that sells nic is seeing the wholesale decrease mainly because of the shops that have decided not to be manufacturers and are going the wholesale route. There certainly are some closing up shop and going out of business (many from the states that have enacted harsh regulations and high taxes of their own), but I don' think there's a huge percentage totally closing their doors yet because of the deeming,(key word YET) .

Ecigs have now been around for a while. They aren't the "new " thing anymore. There may still be a lot of smokers that could switch, but I'd guess many would have before now if they wanted to so the rate of those switching has probably slowed down a lot. Add on top of that the smear campaign all around us and that will make for far fewer new people vaping which would decrease business from previous years when there was a high rate of new people all the time.

Also there may be less upgrading to find something better then we've had in the past which drove sales up previously. Start with something that functions better, and you don't always go looking for something new so soon. The average person that vapes doesn't own 10, 20, 30 or more different devises and that many again toppers like many on ECF do.

 

[zoiDman]

It's simple. New products are what drives the market. Consumerism is a major factor. Without the promise of new products and innovations on the horizon, many will look to utilize what they already own more efficiently.

BTW - Where all this come from was this thread...

FDA Deeming Regs

And if you are Not Familiar with RTS, the deal mainly in e-Liquids and DIY Supplies.

DIY E-Cig Supplies & E-Cigarette Liquid | Make Your Own E-Liquid | RTS Vapes

 

[sofarsogood]

I would have expected a nic supplier's sales to be holding steady or improving after 8-8. Sales could decline because shops are nervous and letting inventory and raw material decline and delaying purchases. May be kids were more important to sales than I think and squeezing them out has been effective. A group we hear almost nothinga about is people who switch to vaping and then stop vaping and smoking. I have no clue how many of those there might be. May be there are too many shops in some markets and they are beginning to close sooner because of FDA uncertainties. May be nic suppliers are cutting into each other's business. May be a trend away from shops and to mail order is accelerating. So may be a combination of the above and some things I haven't thought of.

A number that can't be so volatile is the amount of liquid vaped day to day by consumers. It does not crash 50% in a few months.

 

[retired1]

Considering the Deeming Regulations were released in May, I could see sales starting to decline the following month as shops decided it wasn't worth it.

 

[EddardinWinter]

How many new vapers are switching today? I bet it's much less. Without new vapers, and more people making quitting vaping their goal, the numbers make sense to me.

I wouldn't encourage someone to try vaping today as a quitting method. It's just not a viable long term solution. The FDA has ruined the whole industry.

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

 

[subwayaznm]

There are many reasons that online business could be on the decline unfortunately. Mainly stemming from the Deeming. And Brick & Mortar places I feel for. That fast money is quickly going if not gone replaced by choking Regulations, and constantly increasing cost of operation. Not a good time to be in the Vape business. If it were me I would sure get out before losses become any worse.

 

[Hitmetwice]

Most vapers decrease their nic levels over time. This will affect how much nic is sold in a market that has become stagnant.
More mature vapers than new vapers.
Better equipment than ever before requires less nic, even for noobs.

There are many new pressures at play. Businesses ebb and flow, have good months and not so good months.

With all the changes, I see a bit of a downtrend coming. It's almost inevitable. 50% in a short time?
Corrections happen in markets all the time, 50% retracements are very common. It'll bounce back, a little at least. Cheers.

 

[retired1]

Corrections happen in markets all the time, 50% retracements are very common. It'll bounce back, a little at least. Cheers.

If the courts side with the FDA, it won't bounce back. In fact, we'll see the FDA's projection of over 90% of businesses bailing out.

 

[skoony]

I am leaning towards B&M's stopping their own mixing. Most here in Minnesota
would mix behind the counter if the product wasn't already bottled. Not any more.
Only bottled product with child resistant packaging. I also assume that most if
not all new entries into the market have ceased as they would have to wait for approval
before they could sell their product. What once was a very attractive business or investment
opportunity has had its proverbial bubble burst.

Regards
Mike

 

[kross8]

One of the forum suppliers who sells nic says recently "Our sales are down by 75% and we have gone from 31 employees to 18. Many of our wholesale accounts (mostly brick and mortar stores) have or are in the midst of going out of business. Virtually all our wholesale customers report a drop of at least 50% in sales starting in June."

The claim about many vape shops seeing a recent 50% decline in business is surprising, hard to understand. The stores I occaisionally visit seem to survive on regulars who buy e liquid. I don't think they are suddenly vaping 50% less liquid. Anybody have a better idea than me about what's happening?

hoarding and joining the DIY part of vaping is taking its toll. I used to buy 60mls a week from b&m, the rest bought online ,, now I only diy.,, Essential Depot put out some email a month+/- ago saying demand is growing from commercial accounts that is why they had to increase prices.......I don't believe them and said so. with the current state of affairs with the FDA.. more (mixing) shops are likely to close locations not open more locations.

I used to buy quite a bit from Slims. coupons/discounts were more rare,, now its almost every email.. DIY is taking over.

 

[Endor]

How many new vapers are switching today? I bet it's much less. Without new vapers, and more people making quitting vaping their goal, the numbers make sense to me.

I wouldn't encourage someone to try vaping today as a quitting method. It's just not a viable long term solution. The FDA has ruined the whole industry.

My thoughts, exactly. The uncertainty of the vapor market combined with the constant drumbeat of smear from public health (and, like in California, actual Departments of Public Health!) has to have an impact on smokers' choice to convert to vaping. Polls have been trending in the wrong direction, and some now show that a majority of Americans think that vaping is as dangerous as smoking. The smear campaign is working.

I also wouldn't recommend any smoker pick up vaping, either. A year ago, I was effusive about extolling the virtues of switching to any smoker who asked. I fact, I helped a man I met at Union Station (I was taking Metrolink at the time) completely switch to vaping... I was proud of that and happy for him. It is sad, really sad, what the FDA has done.