CDC misrepresents own data finding sharp declines in youth cigarette consumption and smoking rates

[Bill Godshall]

CDC survey data finds sharp declines in cigarette consumption and smoking rates among US high school students from 1991-2009 (including a record low 5.3% daily smoking rate), but CDC misrepresents data in new article http://www.cfah.org/hbns/archives/viewSupportDoc.cfm?supportingDocID=1034 and press release http://www.ajpmonline.org/webfiles/images/journals/amepre/AJPM%20Embargoed%20for%20Aug%202-%20High%20School.pdf to falsely allege and criticize a nonexistant increase in "light smoking" (whose actual prevalence declined) and to claim smaller (than actual) declines in heavy and moderate smoking (by using different denominators for 1991 and 2009 calculations instead of comparing actual prevalence rates). CDC further under-reported the actual decline in cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence by comparing 2009 data to 1991 data instead of higher prevalence data in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999 or 2001 (provided at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5926a1.htm?s_cid=mm5926a1_e). The actual "current frequent smoking" rate (i.e. smoked >19 days in past 30 days) among US high school students declined from 16.8% in 1999 to 7.3% in 2009.

While it appears that CDC has now wisely created three new categories of smokers (heavy, moderate, light) using YRBS data and provided selective data for these new categories for 1991 and 2009 (see rates below), the two Figures of data provided and repeatedly cited by CDC (in its new article) for heavy, moderate and light smokers from 1991 to 2009 are intentionally deceptive (as any reductions in the percentage of heavy and moderate smokers automatically increases the percentage of light smokers, as now defined by CDC). Since 1.3% of students reported smoking 1-5 cigarettes per day in 2009 (a rate that also declined sharply from 1991, which CDC hasn't acknowledged), and since 14.2% of students reported being non-daily (occassional) smokers in 2009, the CDC has obscured sharp declines in the light daily smoking rate and the overall daily smoking rate by including non-daily smokers in its definition of "light smokers". The CDC should instead create a separate category for non-daily youth smokers (as the NHIS has done for adult smokers for decades), who accounted for 73.3% of "current smokers" in high school in 2009.


Below are Actual Cigarette Smoking Rates among US High School Students (YRBS) for 1991 and 2009
1991 2009
4.95% 1.5% (Heavy Smokers = >10 cigarettes/day)
4.15% 2.5% (Moderate Smokers = 6-10 cigarettes/day)
18.4% 15.5% (Light Smokers = <1-5 cigarettes/day)
27.5% 19.5% (Current Smokers = Heavy+Moderate+Light Smokers = smoked at least once during past 30 days)
12.7% 7.3% (Current Frequent Smokers = smoked >19 days during past 30 days)


Reuters repeats CDC misrepresentations of 1991-2009 changes in smoking among high school students
Casual smoking rises among U.S. students: study | Reuters

 

[Bill Godshall]

ACSH reports Godshall's correction of misleading claims by CDC on youth smoking
Clarification on teen smoking: Not as bad as we were told > Facts & Fears > ACSH

 

[rothenbj]

Typical ANTZ rhetoric, inflate the numbers for funding, deflate the numbers to show success in their mission. So 19.5% of children are willing to admit they smoke at all in today's anti-smoker environment. The question then becomes the difference in level of honesty between 1991 and today. Twenty years of denormalization, I'd guess, may deflate the actual numbers today more than in 1991.

 

[Bill Godshall]

This intentional misrepresentation of survey data by the CDC is the first time I ever recall that occurring (by the CDC, which is one of the most respected agencies in the federal government). The CDC authors of that article violated basic principles of epidemiology, biostatistics and research methods. I spoke to the editor of the journal yesterday, and she basically agreed, and urged me to write a letter to the journal saying so.

Hopefully, my e-mail today (that I sent to about 1750 folks) exposing this will convince other anti smoking and public health advocates (who are sitting on the fence about harm reduction) that I've been truthful and ethical in advocating tobacco harm reduction products and policies.

 

[Bill Godshall]

Youth smoking has declined dramatically in the US, but anti tobacco extremists want the public to continue believing that youth smoking is still epidemic, that tobacco companies continue to aggressively target market to youth, and that the only way to solve this problem is by increasing government tobacco control funding and programs, further increasing already high cigarette tax rates, banning tobacco use outdoors, and imposing lots of new regulations on tobacco products and companies.

 

[DC2]

Youth smoking has declined dramatically in the US, but anti tobacco extremists want the public to continue believing that youth smoking is still epidemic, that tobacco companies continue to aggressively target market to youth, and that the only way to solve this problem is by increasing government tobacco control funding and programs, further increasing already high cigarette tax rates, banning tobacco use outdoors, and imposing lots of new regulations on tobacco products and companies.

So they want the public to believe that money needs to be kept flowing in their general direction?

 

[Vocalek]

Give that man a cigar!

(An e-cigar of course.)