Cole-Bishop Failed. What now for vape?

[go_player]

I like the article as a whole, though I might take issue with a couple points. You write: "Consolidation was always going to occur in this industry. It always does."

The first sentence _might_ be true (though I'm not at all sure it is.) The second does not seem, to me, to be true. In fact, the opposite is often the case, and there are a number of industries (many very similar to, for instance, your example of juice makers) where we have observed a great deal of de-consolidation in the recent past.

I'm old enough that when I was a kid there were just a few brewers in the United States. Not only were there only a few domestic brands to choose from, they were all very much the same. If you wanted a beer you could have any kind of beer you wanted, as long as it was an "American Lager." Which meant a can of carbonated liquid produced by fermenting rice and adding a _very_ small amount of hops and barley so that you could sort of pretend it was beer. And some egg whites, to give it that classic stiff head that stayed on the beer for hours.

These days- well, I live in a fairly crunchy bit of New England, and you can't throw a rock without hitting a new brewery around here. There has been an explosion in craft-brewing during not just my lifetime, but my adult lifetime. I could write more than I should here about why I think that has been so, and I'm not sure I think all of the reasons for it are entirely benign (work as a consumer good is a factor here, and I don't entirely approve of that trend.) Brewing is not, by a long shot, the only industry like this. I could list a dozen without thinking very hard (an awful lot of them related to food and beverage.)

The regulatory environment is an important factor here. That might sound a bit strange, since alcohol is certainly regulated. But the regulatory hoops involved in starting a small brewery and selling beer are, at least in my neck of the woods, not actually that onerous. A lot of kids in their twenties with some serious wake and bake tendencies seem to be able to pull it off with some small friends and family loans.

I like innovation. I like competition. I like creative destruction, even if I might not like all of its immediate effects. It's inevitable that regulation around vaping is going to increase in the near future, but I hope that it winds up closer to the regulation around beer and further from the regulation around raw-milk cheese, automatic weapons, and tobacco.

 

[ShowerHead]

My ten cents, inflation you know.
First, quit tagging tobacco companies as the evil perpetrator here. I mean, yes they are lying gutter snipe, but in this case I believe they are innocent. Their profits are up. 85% of the US tobacco market is controlled by two firms. They simply raise prices to make money, demand is now, in economic terms, is inelastic. No matter the price, the market will pay it.

Anyway, the do-gooder non-profits are your enemy. American Lung Association, Cancer, Heart, etc. All are against anything they perceive as 'smoking'. If vaping doesn't mimic smoking to a large degree, you're doing it wrong. So, to not 'glamorize/resocialize' smoking, we have to be against vaping. End of story.
How many people in your hometown have a connection to one of these fine groups? How many think they are neutral, just wanting to help the public good? Why if I just walk a mile, I'll help them end death in my time!
Ever see their PR in the local paper, newscast? See the mayor/congressperson, senator appear with them?

Then you have the government. Long ago, elected officials abdicated their role to regulatory agencies. It's convenient. "Well, I'll sure look into that complaint Mr Constituent, but it is an agency that has the power to do thus and so." Blaming some other big unnamed power that is out of your control is a very easy way to have things done that you the person who would be voted out want done, or at least don't care if its done.

As for youth taking up smoking or vaping, well it kind of easy for me to see. My nephew (who you wouldn't let your kid hang out with) vapes. Since he was 16. His mom bought the mod, tank, and juice for him. Why? To keep him from smoking. But when I asked him aside from this parents, he said he started vaping because "It was cool". Cigarettes are too expensive for most teenagers to do on a regular basis. It isn't the 35 cents that I spent for a pack when I started. Vaping is cheap, one of the reasons all of us list as well. I guess it's better than Marlboros, but it is certainly fodder for those who would tell you what to do and when to do it.

I have very little expectation that Congress will do anything about the FDA regulations. I mean, look at the 'sugary drink' taxes popping up all over. The fact is that even if there is no Federal law/regulation, your state and local folks will be more than happy to make vaping the star of the "For the Children" show. Ably assisted by the local chapter of do-gooder international.

Concentrate on your state and local officials. Stop the stupid propaganda billboards and ads that local health departments have started displaying. Stop stupid taxes and no mail order laws.

Support term limits for everybody. Get the doddering ...... out of office. Less chance for someone to bribe people who are there only for a short time.

 

[Bad Ninja]

Outsourcing to state agencies?

Nope.

They dont have the authority to ask states to pay for enforcement of federal regulations, and states arent gonna earmark their own funds for FDA enforcement.
They also have a budget.

I just don't see federal marshals being funded by anyone to start raiding vape stores.

Local and state LEO won't touch this without extra funding and local support.

 

[jseah]

Nope.

They dont have the authority to ask states to pay for enforcement of federal regulations, and states arent gonna earmark their own funds for FDA enforcement.
They also have a budget.

I just don't see federal marshals being funded by anyone to start raiding vape stores.

Local and state LEO won't touch this without extra funding and local support.

Local governments already has skin in the game, with some states already imposing taxes on vapor products and some states relying heavily on the MSA money. There has already been reports of state agencies showing up at vape shops to ensure that they are following guidelines such as checking ID's, etc.

 

[jseah]

As for youth taking up smoking or vaping, well it kind of easy for me to see. My nephew (who you wouldn't let your kid hang out with) vapes. Since he was 16. His mom bought the mod, tank, and juice for him. Why? To keep him from smoking. But when I asked him aside from this parents, he said he started vaping because "It was cool". Cigarettes are too expensive for most teenagers to do on a regular basis. It isn't the 35 cents that I spent for a pack when I started. Vaping is cheap, one of the reasons all of us list as well. I guess it's better than Marlboros, but it is certainly fodder for those who would tell you what to do and when to do it.

While the ongoing costs of vaping is cheap, the initial cost to get a mod and tank/coils are high compared to a pack of smokes. Even going with a cheap mech mod and dripper, it is still higher than getting cigarettes. You also have vape shops being pretty good at not selling to minors, so that is why the greatest access for teens will be the disposable cigalikes, since they are sold at minimarts, gas stations, etc. who will not necessarily care whether they are selling to minors or not.

 

[cooladdict]

Specifically, I'm referring to the decline in uptake in adolescents - NOT the effect vape is having on existing smokers. If that's not clear, perhaps I need to make it so.

I understood it the way you wrote it.

 

[Bad Ninja]

Local governments already has skin in the game, with some states already imposing taxes on vapor products and some states relying heavily on the MSA money. There has already been reports of state agencies showing up at vape shops to ensure that they are following guidelines such as checking ID's, etc.

Local taxes have zero to do with enforcing FDA regulations.

You know better.

Which state agencies can you specifically show went into a vape shop (not a tobacco store that sold vapes) to check IDs?

 

[Oliver]

Deinitely a "combination of things", but smartphones are a big change and, I believe, one of the contributing factors.

Excellent article as the usual.

I can't help but think that smart phones are chasing the boredom away. Plus it keeps the hands busy. LOL

I don't know if I feel we can contribute smart phones as the reason, it may well be a combination of things.

This day and age, we see more and more parents OD'ing while their child is strapped in a car seat. These images will probably do more to the teenage, and younger, mind.

How does this help us? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Dunno...

At this point in time, I have a little hope but it is fading fast. This world has gone crazy...or it could be my eyes have been opened wide and they refuse to shut again. *sigh*

Sometimes I wish I could go back to when I was naive...

Yeah it was the: "I don't believe there's any evidence to show that vape is driving down smoking..." that was striking coming from you, after all the 'evidence' on this forum, and the actual studies posted by Bill G and the articles we've all read from Siegel*, Brad Rodu, Reason mag, et al.

*The Rest of the Story: Tobacco News Analysis and Commentary: As E-Cigarettes Re-Normalize Smoking, Adult Smoking Prevalence in 2015 Plummets

I know in the article itself you were referring to adolescents, but I disagree with you there as well, despite the 'smartphone' argument. :- ) Don't know if a study of adolescent vaping has been done, but just from personal experience and communication with some (and from others' comments here and elsewhere), and the idea that adolescents are going to experiment, I think they've chosen the more rational experiment by vaping, which would cause a reduction in smoking (all else being equal).

And yes, I said "Don't know" and "I think" but I also don't know of any studies that say otherwise. wrt smoking and vaping...

 

[Steamix]

Outsourcing to state agencies?

Most likely. Is common MO with many gov't stuff these days.
Farm it out to some private outfit which self-finances itself from fines levied from 'offenders' and even has to pay a cut to the authorizing agency for the 'privilege.

It's not widely publicized, but if you do some digging you'd be surprised about the number agencies/entities where paid fines for any infractions are fixed part of the budget.

Ever wonder why 'no-parking-signs' or speed limits seem to grow more numerous when year's end is drawing closer ? Collected rake falls short of budgeted rake, so let's tighten the screws a turn or two...

Vape vendors will pay for compliance and will also pay for non-compliance.
Either way you need to be very brave to live in the land of the free....

 

[Bad Ninja]

Most likely. Is common MO with many gov't stuff these days.
Farm it out to some private outfit which self-finances itself from fines levied from 'offenders' and even has to pay a cut to the authorizing agency for the 'privilege.

It's not widely publicized, but if you do some digging you'd be surprised about the number agencies/entities where paid fines for any infractions are fixed part of the budget.

Ever wonder why 'no-parking-signs' or speed limits seem to grow more numerous when year's end is drawing closer ? Collected rake falls short of budgeted rake, so let's tighten the screws a turn or two...

Vape vendors will pay for compliance and will also pay for non-compliance.
Either way you need to be very brave to live in the land of the free....

That would require individual states to vote on budget to pay for enforcement.

State and local police do not just take on blanket enforcement of new FDA regulations.
Thats not how it works.

ATF would enforce federal robacco regulations.
They also would need budget money earmarked for nationwide enforcement.

They dont just add it to their to-do list.




Edited to add:
If you don't underatand how budgets and funding directly affect enforcement, just google "Jeff Sessions denied funding" for an excellent example.
No funds=no enforcement.

 

[KODIAK (TM)]

I say again, the FDA is out of this now - has been for some time. Damage was done when the deeming became law. We can harp all about the change in leadership but it's too late.

Congress is a forgone conclusion. It's all about the D's and R's. If the R's want it... the D's will fight it regardless of silly things like facts, evidence, science; it's just what congress does these days. So I don't see H.R. 2194 having any chance given these are the same people that killed Cole-Bishop. Remember folks... if it looks like smoking it must be smoking.

So here we are again... same place a year ago... waiting for the judiciary to flip a coin. Don't know about you but at this point I'm putting more faith in my ability to DIY, make black market connections and store what I and my small circle of future miscreants will need. Forever.

Crap. I'm a prepper now.

 

[Chakris]

Good read, Oliver. Another one is the link you gave in point #4: "tobacco experts criticized this report with unprecedented vociferousness."
Bad science, poor insights and likely to do harm – rapid reaction to the Surgeon General’s terrible e-cigarette report

BTW, does anyone know how to start your own tobacco plantation?
That's the only way I can think of to procure nicotine here in Thailand

 

[Foggyroomz]

The problem is that we as citizens of this giant machine have allowed over our existence of 200 plus years, through our complacency, for the federal government to get a big head, they make bills into laws and feel as though we have to just take it on the chin. now that we have something that we are passionate about we don't have the means to be a thorn in their side or enough backing to be heard, we've sat by idle and quiet for too long. Our level of democracy lies in our ability to elect representatives and that's it. For a democracy to be a true democracy it takes more citizen participation, the US lifestyle is so fast paced that we don't take the time to be part of the bigger picture and without resistance big brother just does what they want. We also believe everything we see on our news media to be gospel truths and go about saying oh-well what can I do about it anyway, we have just willingly adopted a defeatist attitude and allow ourselves to be passively subjected to whatever the fascists in DC deem down. We needed to be in these fights and holding our representatives accountable long before now. Welcome to the American Nightmare because liberty and freedom are only a dream.

 

[Oliver]

@Kent C OK, I see where you're coming from, but I was definitely talking about adolescents. I'll tidy the paragraph up to make it clearer. But look, the truth will be (as it always is) complex and messy. Time poor here, so let me splurge a few thoughts.

Lots of studies of adolescents have been done. Few of them any good, and most of them with very tendentious conclusions attached. But, what does seem clear is that vanishingly few are becoming "daily vapers", and of those that do it's likely that the larger part is smokers who (like their adult counterparts) are switching to vape.

That was why I put that bit in about smoking and 50%. It's a staggering statistic, especially compared to what's happening with vape. We know loads of adolescents are experimenting with vape, but they're not going on to be daily vapers (at least no-where comparably to smokers).

I like the smartphone argument, partly because I came up with it, but mainly because it's an example of another explanation that has plausibility. In other words, why claim it's all down to vape when there's no real evidence for that?

Let's extend the smartphone point a little further - there's a unifying factor here: the ever-increasing abundance of information communication, which is also responsible in large part for the very FACT of vape and its development. So, maybe that's the real disruption.

I do think smartphones replace much of the "social function" of cigarettes. I'm sure sociologists have good terminology here, but I'm not one, so bear with me. There's two main things I think overlap in smoking and smartphones: one is cigarette-as-company ("you're never alone with a mobile phone"), and one is ritualistic "time-out" (have a cigarette/check twitter).

@cats5365 - good point. So there's likely a knock on effect from the relative unavailability of smokes to youth, given the number of parents/relatives that will have quit.

 

[sofarsogood]

I wrote a thing out of words: Cole Bishop just failed. What now?

I read the essay. My response to a few of your points. Thousands of flavors are better compared to the taste of french fries in thousands of resturants. Taste will be a little different in all of them. We don't think we need laws about how many flavors of french fries there are. Having said that I don't see a bright future for the e liquid business regardless of government regulations unless they can do well on smaller profit margins than are today's norm.

You mention that survey data indicates kids aren't becoming daily vapers which means they try it and lose interest. My theory about the kids is they are attracted to the visual part of vaping/smoking, not nicotine and not flavors. When their curiosity about blowing clouds is satisfied the survey's apparently indicate most move on. Cigarettes used to satisfy that curiosity. Now there is an alternative that is less habit forming.

I don't think the FDA understands vaping better now because they don't want to understand it. They want vaping to go away so they don't need to understand it. My preference is to get rid of the FDA. I would do that by moving food regulation to the ag department and abolish patent protection for new drugs.

The surgeon general may have been fired because he said things the gun rights people didn't like. They have more clout than vapers.

Vaping is political because of the excise taxes. When a smoker switches to vaping it's a substantial tax cut. If all the smokers world wide switched to vaping it would be the mother of all tax cuts. Republicans like to reduce taxes. Democrats like to increase them. So why is vaping less political in the UK even though the taxes are high? My theory is the Brits generally do a better job of thinking out loud (pubic discourse and speech making). Nonsense and out right lying would be insulting the Queen. There's no moral authority like that in the US.

To show my confidence in the American system of government I'm stockpiling a10-20 year supply of the critical items (which I can do for less than it used to cost me to smoke for 3 months). Vaping made me a single issue voter in the last election and I was ruthless in the voting booth. I told people before the election, I'm voting for Trump because, if Ihave to be miserable, I want company.

 

[Bad Ninja]

I read the essay. My response to a few of your points. Thousands of flavors are better compared to the taste of french fries in thousands of resturants. Taste will be a little different in all of them. We don't think we need laws about how many flavors of french fries there are. Having said that I don't see a bright future for the e liquid business regardless of government regulations unless they can do well on smaller profit margins than are today's norm.

You mention that survey data indicates kids aren't becoming daily vapers which means they try it and lose interest. My theory about the kids is they are attracted to the visual part of vaping/smoking, not nicotine and not flavors. When their curiosity about blowing clouds is satisfied the survey's apparently indicate most move on. Cigarettes used to satisfy that curiosity. Now there is an alternative that is less habit forming.

I have to agree with this.

I don't think the FDA understands vaping better now because they don't want to understand it. They want vaping to go away so they don't need to understand it.

They dont want it to go away or they could have easily made it happen.
They could have banned the sale of nic base.
Game over.
They want to control the profit stream which is worth billions.

My preference is to get rid of the FDA. I would do that by moving food regulation to the ag department and abolish patent protection for new drugs.

I am all for this. 100%.

-

The surgeon general may have been fired because he said things the gun rights people didn't like. They have more clout than vapers.

Well, yes, and ALL Americans have gun rights as its specified in the constitution.
Vaping isn't specified in the document.
Lol.
The surgeon general is an appointed position. When administrations change, those positions are filled with new appointees. Nothing strange.

Vaping is political because of the excise taxes. When a smoker switches to vaping it's a substantial tax cut. If all the smokers world wide switched to vaping it would be the mother of all tax cuts. Republicans like to reduce taxes. Democrats like to increase them.

Vaping is a cash cow.
The FDA regulations pretty much ensure the major players are Big Tobacco companies.
States want to protect their MSA payments from BT.
Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement - Wikipedia

"Payments by the Participating Manufacturers (PMs)Edit
The amount of money that the PMs are required to annually contribute to the states varies according to several factors. All payments are based primarily on the number of cigarettes sold."

It gets better.. Or worse...

The states then buddied up to Wallstreet and created Tobacco Bonds.
Which they sold, to get up-front cash based on payments ..which are based on sales.
Sound familiar?

So.
They need to sell cigarettes.

The Government is corrupt to the core.

So why is vaping less political in the UK even though the taxes are high? My theory is the Brits generally do a better job of thinking out loud (pubic discourse and speech making). Nonsense and out right lying would be insulting the Queen. There's no moral authority like that in the US.

Wut?

To show my confidence in the American system of government I'm stockpiling a10-20 year supply of the critical items (which I can do for less than it used to cost me to smoke for 3 months). Vaping made me a single issue voter in the last election and I was ruthless in the voting booth. I told people before the election, I'm voting for Trump because, if Ihave to be miserable, I want company.

Lol.

 

[sofarsogood]

I have to agree with this.



They dont want it to go away or they could have easily made it happen.
They could have banned the sale of nic base.
Game over.
They want to control the profit stream which is worth billions.





I am all for this. 100%.

-

Well, yes, and ALL Americans have gun rights as its specified in the constitution.
Vaping isn't specified in the document.
Lol.
The surgeon general is an appointed position. When administrations change, those positions are filled with new appointees. Nothing strange.


Vaping is a cash cow.
The FDA regulations pretty much ensure the major players are Big Tobacco companies.
States want to protect their MSA payments from BT.
Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement - Wikipedia

"Payments by the Participating Manufacturers (PMs)Edit
The amount of money that the PMs are required to annually contribute to the states varies according to several factors. All payments are based primarily on the number of cigarettes sold."

It gets better.. Or worse...

The states then buddied up to Wallstreet and created Tobacco Bonds.
Which they sold, to get up-front cash based on payments ..which are based on sales.
Sound familiar?

So.
They need to sell cigarettes.

The Government is corrupt to the core.



Wut?



Lol.

When Betty Bothroyd was speaker in the House of Commons prime ministers questions was my favorite TV show (if the topic was something I could follow like foreign policy).

I will disagree with you about vaping being a cash cow. Taxes on vaping can never recover a fraction of what tobacco earns. Mods and atomizers can last for years so a tax on those can't be so consequential. And the courts might not go along with taxing them. The only other critical peice is nicotine. A tax on that would have to be truely gigantic to even begin to cover the lost revenues from tobacco taxes. I've written many times about how smoking cost me $3,000 a year and today my DIY cost of ingredients for a year is about $25. A $50 bottle of nic will last me 4 years. 4 years of smoking cost me $12,000. Taxing pure nic that high would make it comparable in valuable per ounce to gold bullion. That would be a smuggler's dream come true.

 

[daviedog]

Cole-Bishop failed.

I don't need a Wind Sock to see which way it Blows..

 

[Bad Ninja]

When Betty Bothroyd was speaker in the House of Commons prime ministers questions was my favorite TV show (if the topic was something I could follow like foreign policy).

I will disagree with you about vaping being a cash cow. Taxes on vaping can never recover a fraction of what tobacco earns. Mods and atomizers can last for years so a tax on those can't be so consequential. And the courts might not go along with taxing them. The only other critical peice is nicotine. A tax on that would have to be truely gigantic to even begin to cover the lost revenues from tobacco taxes. I've written many times about how smoking cost me $3,000 a year and today my DIY cost of ingredients for a year is about $25. A $50 bottle of nic will last me 4 years. 4 years of smoking cost me $12,000. Taxing pure nic that high would make it comparable in valuable per ounce to gold bullion. That would be a smuggler's dream come true.

Its not about about taxes.
That's small time.
It's about lost BT profit, which affects the amount BT pays to states.
The states have no choice as they have already sold bonds based on those payments not being reduced by a bottom line fighting a multi billion dollar, fast growing vape industry.
They now have no choice.

Local taxes are just scraps for the local crumb snatchers.

They are playing the long game.
It's chess not checkers.

 

[WorksForMe]

I will disagree with you about vaping being a cash cow. Taxes on vaping can never recover a fraction of what tobacco earns. Mods and atomizers can last for years so a tax on those can't be so consequential. And the courts might not go along with taxing them. The only other critical peice is nicotine. A tax on that would have to be truely gigantic to even begin to cover the lost revenues from tobacco taxes. I've written many times about how smoking cost me $3,000 a year and today my DIY cost of ingredients for a year is about $25. A $50 bottle of nic will last me 4 years. 4 years of smoking cost me $12,000. Taxing pure nic that high would make it comparable in valuable per ounce to gold bullion. That would be a smuggler's dream come true.

All of this is true except that the FDA wants to make all the cheap or long lasting items you listed unavailable. If they get their way, the only thing available will be BT's disposable cigalikes, which are easy to tax and cause a lot smokers to keep smoking.

Hopefully, new leadership will change their thinking. Maybe watching a conservative news channel on their office TVs will help.

Trump administration orders FDA to only watch Fox News