Herzog now estimates mods/e-liquid sales up to $1.5 Billion, cigalike sales down to $1 Billion in US this year

[aikanae1]

Nate wrote:



Please provide some evidence including weblinks (as I've been urging the Weiss brothers, who own and run njoy, to do so for the past several years).
About a month ago, njoy began selling lots of different flavored cigalikes (after publicly urging FDA to ban flavored e-cigs a year ago).

Njoy is posting on Reddit ecig sub now too.
Passed out coupons and sent freebies for eliquids to commenters, including customized (higher) nic levels.
Solicited commenter feedback there.
I think it's a safe bet that Njoy's in lurk mode on ECF also.

 

[Nate760]

That's funny! With all that talk of their super advanced microprocessing whosits, I assumed it would literally time how long a particular cartridge had been used (in-use time, not just sitting around idle).

I only used it long enough to go through the two cartos I had (one of which I dutifully dissected), so take this for what it's worth, but I'm fairly certain their "super-advanced space-age microprocessor technology," or whatever hyperbole they're using to refer to it, is just a simple humidity sensor with three reading modes. It's got a probe that runs the length of the batting, so it probably starts registering "getting low" when some part of the batting first dries up, and then the kill switch kicks in when a certain portion of the probe isn't reading any moisture. When it first gives you the "getting low" signal, and you redistribute the remaining liquid (by inverting, or shaking, or dry hitting, or whatever), it'll go back to "full" mode and stay there for quite some time. So that's what leads me to believe there's no time-based component involved (also, leave it to RJR to give you a product that tells you it's empty when it's still half-full).

 

[seminolewind]

I am just happy to see vaping sales in the Billions $$$. Far cry from 5 years ago. Mods and e-juice. We've come a long way BayBee!

 

[sky4it]

If $1.5 Billion of mods/e-liquid and if $1 Billion of cigalikes are sold this year (which I think is about right), since mods/e-liquid cost an average of 25%-33% of the price of cigalikes, mods/e-liquid are now outselling cigalikes by 4.5 - 6 times (in terms of nicotine consumption).

Due to the huge price difference between mods/e-liquid and cigalikes, and similar price difference between mods/e-liquid and cigarettes, the Big Tobacco companies are going to increasingly pressure the FDA (via the deeming regulation) and state legislatures (via taxation, licensing and other regs on e-cigs), to protect their cigalikes from market competition by mods/e-liquid.

We can also expect Big Tobacco companies and other large cigalike companies to increasingly repeat the false fear mongering claims about e-liquid poisoning children, and about vaporizers being used for illegal drugs, and to lobby for laws that ban or severely restrict sales and marketing of mods and e-liquid.

That first point a really excellent one. If the split is approximately 60/40 Tanks/Cigalikes in terms of sales, that does not mean usage is 60/40 per the market population, because tanks are re-usable many times. Or Simply stated they dont need repeat sales. (In addition, many cigalikes are not easily reusable, and are in general a repeat sale item, which should further add to a higher number of users of tank percentage in the market place.) Therefore the actual market penetration of tanks/clearos etc, is higher in terms of population usage. Its probably more like 70 to 30 or 75 to 25 or even higher. Plus, people who like cigalikes, many if not most, look for a better experience.

IMO, we can delcare a small victory on the education front. or at least FDA/BT/ANTZ/Politicos have some big hurdles as in user preference.

 

[Nate760]

IMO, we can delcare a small victory on the education front. or at least FDA/BT/ANTZ/Politicos have some big hurdles as in user preference.

I think the FDA knows perfectly well that if they impose onerous restrictions on tanks, liquids, etc., the short-term result is going to be that thousands of people who no longer smoke will start smoking again. The ANTZ and their cohorts in Congress are too busy fantasizing about a perfect, nicotine-free universe to give much consideration to the real-world consequences of their favored policies.

 

[aikanae1]

I don't think anyone's fantasing about a nicotine free world. That's 100% marketing bs. Sorta like PETA does. And it's big money, lots of small donations and most of all, it works.

 

[Stosh]

I don't think anyone's fantasing about a nicotine free world. That's 100% marketing bs. Sorta like PETA does. And it's big money, lots of small donations and most of all, it works.

Some of the ANTZ might, if they could ban all nicotine they would without a thought of unintended consequences.

 

[DrMA]

Some of the ANTZ might, if they could ban all nicotine they would without a thought of unintended consequences.

I agree, except, all of the ANTZ are fantasizing about a nicotine-free world; but at the same time they're making every effort to delay such an outcome, as that would deprive them of their jobs. Given the current ANTZ tactics, I think the ideal outcome for their camp would be maintenance of tobacco smoking for a large proportion of the world population, but using traditional cigarettes modified to contain little or no nicotine.

In a related post, Clive Bates said: "a deterrent to non-smokers trumps all other concerns – including truthfulness and the welfare of tobacco users."

 

[Kent C]

I agree, except, all of the ANTZ are fantasizing about a nicotine-free world; but at the same time they're making every effort to delay such an outcome, as that would deprive them of their jobs. Given the current ANTZ tactics, I think the ideal outcome for their camp would be maintenance of tobacco smoking for a large proportion of the world population, but using traditional cigarettes modified to contain little or no nicotine.

In a related post, Clive Bates said: "a deterrent to non-smokers trumps all other concerns – including truthfulness and the welfare of tobacco users."

Just another example of 'the end justifies the means'. And Clive 'describing' not 'stating' - in case one didn't read the link

 

[DC2]

I agree, except, all of the ANTZ are fantasizing about a nicotine-free world; but at the same time they're making every effort to delay such an outcome, as that would deprive them of their jobs. Given the current ANTZ tactics, I think the ideal outcome for their camp would be maintenance of tobacco smoking for a large proportion of the world population, but using traditional cigarettes modified to contain little or no nicotine.

Bingo.

And the ANTZ do all this while drinking their caffeine-laced coffee with kid-approved flavors.
How can one see what is happening and not get sick to their stomach?

 

[pamdis]

I agree, except, all of the ANTZ are fantasizing about a nicotine-free world; but at the same time they're making every effort to delay such an outcome, as that would deprive them of their jobs. Given the current ANTZ tactics, I think the ideal outcome for their camp would be maintenance of tobacco smoking for a large proportion of the world population, but using traditional cigarettes modified to contain little or no nicotine.

I think their ideal outcome is a completely smoke-free and nicotine-free world. And I don't think they worry about delaying tactics in order to keep their jobs. Once their fight is complete (which will be never), they plan on moving their expertise over to the newbies on the block - sugar and salt prohibitors - and getting jobs with them.

One of the most frequent things I see in the obesity prevention movement is articles/talks called "Lessons learned from Tobacco Control"

 

[Kent C]

I think their ideal outcome is a completely smoke-free and nicotine-free world. And I don't think they worry about delaying tactics in order to keep their jobs. Once their fight is complete (which will be never), they plan on moving their expertise over to the newbies on the block - sugar and salt prohibitors - and getting jobs with them.

One of the most frequent things I see in the obesity prevention movement is articles/talks called "Lessons learned from Tobacco Control"

A good case could be made that 'tobacco control' helped create the 'obesity problem'. They'll never acknowledge that either.

 

[pamdis]

And not only the obesity movement. Here's an example of a CDC paper on applying the lessons from TC to tanning bed reform:

http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2013/pdf/12_0186.pdf

Really, these TC people don't have to worry about losing their jobs if tobacco mysteriously disappeared tonight. They just change their titles to Xxxxx Control and continue on.

 

[Kent C]

And not only the obesity movement. Here's an example of a CDC paper on applying the lessons from TC to tanning bed reform:

http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2013/pdf/12_0186.pdf

Really, these TC people don't have to worry about losing their jobs if tobacco mysteriously disappeared tonight. They just change their titles to Xxxxx Control and continue on.

Right now and for the past several decades, a gov't job is one of the more secure ones. It has it's downsides though.... obesity can be one of those, but it affects the brain more than anything, imo. There are exceptions.... ;- )

 

[DrMA]

And not only the obesity movement. Here's an example of a CDC paper on applying the lessons from TC to tanning bed reform:

http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2013/pdf/12_0186.pdf

Really, these TC people don't have to worry about losing their jobs if tobacco mysteriously disappeared tonight. They just change their titles to Xxxxx Control and continue on.

There's only one source of unlimited funding for the control freaks that requires no accountability, no ethics, and no science: i.e. TMSA. The food or tanning industries have not yet been subjected to any similar protection racket and it's unlikely that would happen. Even if it did, there's no way the nannies could extort as much money from them, as they have from BT. Whatever way one looks at it and in spite of many alternative options for nannying pursuits, their aggregate-sum opportunity pales in comparison to the tobacco gravy train.

 

[pamdis]

There's only one source of unlimited funding for the control freaks that requires no accountability, no ethics, and no science: i.e. TMSA. The food or tanning industries have not yet been subjected to any similar protection racket and it's unlikely that would happen. Even if it did, there's no way the nannies could extort as much money from them, as they have from BT. Whatever way one looks at it and in spite of many alternative options for nannying pursuits, their aggregate-sum opportunity pales in comparison to the tobacco gravy train.

And how was the tobacco gravy train created? 'Sin' taxes and AG lawsuits resulting in MSA. You don't think it would be possible to happen to food or tanning or any other industry? I do.

 

[Stosh]

And how was the tobacco gravy train created? 'Sin' taxes and AG lawsuits resulting in MSA. You don't think it would be possible to happen to food or tanning or any other industry? I do.

They are trying in the courts.....http://fastfoodlawsuit.com/
And talking about taxing sugary drinks more everyday.