How many people vape on a regular basis worldwide?
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The only place with numbers I know of is this page:
ECCA e-cigarette user numbers estimates
Nobody agrees on the numbers in any case. For example, the minimum in the US is probably 2 million, 3 million might be a more likely figure, and 4m is at least possible. The market is worth $100m a year in the US so it must be going somewhere
In the UK, the equivalents are 200k, 300k and 400k. The UK market is about $8m a year. You can multiply most UK figures by between 5 and 20 to get the US equivalent, 10 being a good average.
We think that about 2% of smokers are vapers now in the UK and US (if that makes any sense). In other words out of every 1000 smokers, 20 have switched to vaping. We should reach 6% by the end of 2013 although some think it will be earlier. In the UK that is a pleasant number as it equals 1 million vapers, a nice round number. The percentage of the population who smoke is probably about the same in the US and UK, but no one can agree what it is: anywhere from 20% to 25%, of 260m and 65m respectively. 23% would give about 60m in the US and 15m in the UK.
In the UK, market penetration has grown by 500% per year as no lower figure would account for the current number of vapers as it didn't start till 2006. The US was a couple of months later but now has a vast number more vapers, as seen above. This means that growth must have been substantially higher than 500% per year. It really needs a statistician to work all this out, my school maths/stats is about 50 years old now...
I would say that total EU numbers are between the UK number and double that, but nobody except a vendor who sells substantial amounts to the UK, EU and US such as Jason @ Totally Wicked could give you the real figures on this. Then you've got the ROTW, rest of the world.
Another way of looking at this is to try and work it out from the turnover of the Chinese manufacturers. Ruyan did $36m in 2009 I think. Tricky...
Of most interest to me is the estimated date we will reach 25% of smokers in the US and UK. I take a stab at 2025 as the latest date this will be achieved, and it might happen earlier. This may seem wildly speculative but look at the shape of the graph - that vapers each seem to convert four or five people a year - and that according to rough guesses 75% of those stay with it.
It's contagious
The future looks interesting: the death rate from smoking will start to come down as a direct result; states and national governments will get hysterical over the lost tobacco tax; the pharmaceutical industry will lose most of their NRT sales and maybe start to play hardball; the tobacco industry will get into e-cigs for sure; e-cigarette regulations will become a voting issue; and more.
ECCA e-cigarette user numbers estimates
Nobody agrees on the numbers in any case. For example, the minimum in the US is probably 2 million, 3 million might be a more likely figure, and 4m is at least possible. The market is worth $100m a year in the US so it must be going somewhere
In the UK, the equivalents are 200k, 300k and 400k. The UK market is about $8m a year. You can multiply most UK figures by between 5 and 20 to get the US equivalent, 10 being a good average.
We think that about 2% of smokers are vapers now in the UK and US (if that makes any sense). In other words out of every 1000 smokers, 20 have switched to vaping. We should reach 6% by the end of 2013 although some think it will be earlier. In the UK that is a pleasant number as it equals 1 million vapers, a nice round number. The percentage of the population who smoke is probably about the same in the US and UK, but no one can agree what it is: anywhere from 20% to 25%, of 260m and 65m respectively. 23% would give about 60m in the US and 15m in the UK.
In the UK, market penetration has grown by 500% per year as no lower figure would account for the current number of vapers as it didn't start till 2006. The US was a couple of months later but now has a vast number more vapers, as seen above. This means that growth must have been substantially higher than 500% per year. It really needs a statistician to work all this out, my school maths/stats is about 50 years old now...
I would say that total EU numbers are between the UK number and double that, but nobody except a vendor who sells substantial amounts to the UK, EU and US such as Jason @ Totally Wicked could give you the real figures on this. Then you've got the ROTW, rest of the world.
Another way of looking at this is to try and work it out from the turnover of the Chinese manufacturers. Ruyan did $36m in 2009 I think. Tricky...
Of most interest to me is the estimated date we will reach 25% of smokers in the US and UK. I take a stab at 2025 as the latest date this will be achieved, and it might happen earlier. This may seem wildly speculative but look at the shape of the graph - that vapers each seem to convert four or five people a year - and that according to rough guesses 75% of those stay with it.
It's contagious
The future looks interesting: the death rate from smoking will start to come down as a direct result; states and national governments will get hysterical over the lost tobacco tax; the pharmaceutical industry will lose most of their NRT sales and maybe start to play hardball; the tobacco industry will get into e-cigs for sure; e-cigarette regulations will become a voting issue; and more.
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