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AG51

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brrrr !

Good morning in here !


Doozie better get your long-johns on !
Dog%20Walk_zpsp6b0mlgm.png
Great walkin tempatures :D
 

rdsok

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Current radar, temps and front locations... ( or current up until the coffee pot overflowed because I didn't get the pot set all of the way in :facepalm: )

Classy... looks much warmer where you are than up here :D

Current.jpg



Ok... these next two are the GFS and NAM weather model forecasts for snow depth at noon tomorrow ( CST ). The past few years, the models have been forecasting over what is actually seen... this year they've updated the models and computers so everyone is curious to see if they are closer to actual or not.

This is the GFS model for snow depth... Using OBG's info of around 1/2" this morning... this model showed the same amount meaning it's more likely going to be more accurate than the next one... the NAM

This shows OBG stays right around 1/2" until noon tomorrow. It has my area showing 2.7"... and Doozie around 5". ( These have all except for OBG's, since increased last night and this morning... mine was originally showing 2" this morning and Doozie at 3" )

2017-01-06_Noon_GFS.jpg


Ok... the NAM which seems to be a bit high ( IMO )...

This one shows OBG getting more snow... up to an 1". My area getting 1.9" and Doozie's area at 2.9"

2017-01-06_Noon_NAM.jpg



I'm pretty skeptical on either forecast considering the past few years have all seemed to over estimate snow. I still did get a little extra shopping done ahead of time just in case... AND... I'm making sure my camera battery is fully charged :D
 

AG51

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Another temp driver guess they don't teach them how to read addresses :laugh:the guy across the road brought it over,glad he's a good neighbor :)
good thang it wasn't me and you got a box a chocolates delibbered :lol::lol::lol::lol: Oh don't gets me wrong, I'd bring ya da empty box :blush: and say I so sorrys Gramps, let's go to da chima buffit :D
 

DoomiteAsh

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Gooood afternoon y'all, hope we're all having a great Thursday. :)

Sheesh, you'd think we were in for the blizzard of the century if you listened to the radio station I do! :laugh: Yes, it's cold. But even if we get 5 inches of snow around here, it's not like I haven't been exposed to this kinda weather before. I guess people just want to make sure we're safe through this though, you can't really complain about that. I'll wear my Yimmie hat to work tonight, that much I know for sure! :D
 

classwife

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rdsok

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RD I ended up with almost an inch so far and I think it has stopped for now if that helps :)

Thanks... and as for the helps part... does it? ... or is it at least a little pretty? :lol: :D

A quick weather model rundown... There are 4 main times they get real data and feed it to the weather models. It's done each 6 hrs... The start one is at midnight called 0Z ( zero Z, aka UTC time ), then 6am, then again at noon and 6pm. Of those, there are two that get all of the data and even includes weather balloon obsverations ( and others ) and not just partial... The 0Z and 12Z so models made at these times will start off the most accurate since they should represent real data the most. Our 6pm CST is the same as the 0Z model since we are -6hrs UTC.

So the data they will collect in just a bit... should take your 1" current ( if you didn't get more ) snow level into account ( or actually the data collection center closest to you ). Now there is where the mets ( meteorologists ) have their work cut out for them. They will take the latest model data and then after a few hours... they will compare the real data they can look at with what the model has forecast for that time... the closer it is to the real data, the more they weight that data in their own predictions... They then check each model against the real data and compare them and manually create their own forecast based on what they are seeing vs what the models are telling them may happen.
 
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