US GAO says vaping hasn't affected tobacco tax revenue

[DrMA]

The sustained campaign of disinformation waged by sanctimonious parasites against vaping in the US appears to be quite effective: [HASHTAG]#KeepSmokingWeNeedTheMoney[/HASHTAG]

U.S. GAO - Electronic Cigarettes: Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

 

[Kent C]

Title:
Electronic Cigarettes:
Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

Graph:

Comments:

"While use of traditional cigarettes in the United States continues to decline, use of e-cigarettes is increasing."

"The decline in cigarette use has led to a decline in cigarette FET revenue, from $15.3 billion in fiscal year 2010 to $13.2 billion in fiscal year 2014"

Now back to the title:

Electronic Cigarettes:
Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

 

[nicnik]

Title:
Electronic Cigarettes:
Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

Graph:

Comments:

"While use of traditional cigarettes in the United States continues to decline, use of e-cigarettes is increasing."

"The decline in cigarette use has led to a decline in cigarette FET revenue, from $15.3 billion in fiscal year 2010 to $13.2 billion in fiscal year 2014"

Now back to the title:

Electronic Cigarettes:
Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

So they're saying that revenues would have declined about the same amount without e-cigs, but I don't really believe it, especially since they're probably only looking at convenience store sales, gas station sales, etc, which makes it look like those numbers can't possibly be accurate.

The only thing I can think of is that for some strange reason, black market sales have gone down.

 

[Elizabeth Baldwin]

So they're saying that revenues would have declined about the same amount without e-cigs, but I don't really believe it, especially since they're probably only looking at convenience store sales, gas station sales, etc, which makes it look like those numbers can't possibly be accurate.

The only thing I can think of is that for some strange reason, black market sales have gone down.

While a small percentage of the drop could be contributed to other factors nobody can deny that vaping has significantly increased and common sense tells us that effects the percentage greatly. It's just a cop out. They don't want to admit it.

 

[nicnik]

While a small percentage of the drop could be contributed to other factors nobody can deny that vaping has significantly increased and common sense tells us that effects the percentage greatly. It's just a cop out. They don't want to admit it.

Ok, maybe as you say only a small percentage of the drop would have happened without ecigs. That's probably what I was overlooking.

 

[Kent C]

More graphs... It appears that the cig excise tax was on the rise - but the additional data on other taxes tend to mask it.

 

[Kent C]

Ok, maybe as you say only a small percentage of the drop would have happened without ecigs. That's probably what I was overlooking.

You might want to read that again.... Focus on the 'while'.... then the 'nobody can deny' and the 'common sense' part.

 

[nicnik]

More graphs... It appears that the cig excise tax was on the rise - but the additional data on other taxes tend to mask it.

Oh yeah, I forgot to consider the rising tax rates. This is just another case of people attempting to deceive people. This GAO report is worthless.

 

[nicnik]

You might want to read that again.... Focus on the 'while'.... then the 'nobody can deny' and the 'common sense' part.

Hmmm...While nobody can deny common sense, GAO has a special ability to. Other than that, I can't make sense of what you're trying to tell me.

 

[DrMA]

excellent in-depth analysis there, @Kent C !

 

[Kent C]

GAO has a special ability to

Ok. I think you got it. Wasn't totally sure... I know a lot of the 'adult smoking' graphs (the decreases) can be attributed to 'the general decline in smoking' - but there was a leveling off at a certain point in early 2000's and then the drop around 2010 - that, imo, was a direct result of ecigs, esp. when other NTRs existed prior to that. There is no doubt that the Clinton 50cent increase in excise taxes for cigs in '95 was responsible for the raise in revenue and the drop in smoking rates but now those revenues are going down..... I expect them to continue to do so OR they'll include ecigs - which is what is "suggested" in the GAO report with the talk about deeming "in conjunction with" excise taxes - a 'seedling' planted :- )

 

[CarolT]

From the GAO report: "Possible reasons for the lack of a detectable effect include the small size of the e-cigarette market (estimated at $2.5 billion in 2014) relative to the cigarette market ($80 billion in the same year)."

2.5B/80B = 3.125%
and only 3.03% of the combined market

 

[skoony]

I fail to see why every one gets the impression that the story isn't telling the
truth. My City,County and,State officials have told me the smoking bans did
not affect the Bar Business.(much)

regards
Mike

 

[Kent C]

I fail to see why every one gets the impression that the story isn't telling the
truth. My City,County and,State officials have told me the smoking bans did
not affect the Bar Business.(much)

regards
Mike

2 years after the smoking ban in Ohio, 327 bars closed, loss of @$91milllion dollars, 1000's of jobs lost. @2.3 million dollars in fines issued - 1.5 million dollars not collected.

 

[philoshop]

What would you expect from people who need 'specialists' to reload their staplers and tape dispensers.

 

[Bill Godshall]

I was surprised to see that junk study from GAO, which has typically been one of the more objective federal agencies.
Seems like GAO was more interested in helping Ron Wyden trash e-cigs, as he was the one who requested the study.

Below is my analysis of the GAO report from my weekly THR Update (which I sent to the report's author asking for an explanation, which I haven't received).


GAO junk study confirms cigarette consumption (and federal cigarette tax revenue) declined significantly from 2009 to 2014, but absurdly opines (based on no evidence) that skyrocketing e-cigarette consumption did NOT contribute to cigarette decline, absurdly opines (based on no evidence) that the 2009 TCA (coauthored and lobbied for by Philip Morris) reduced cigarette consumption, touts irrelevant survey data on youth use (which accounts for <1% of cigarette and e-cig consumption), grossly misrepresents Obama’s DHHS War on Vaping and FDA’s proposed e-cig ban
http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/672467.pdf
U.S. GAO - Electronic Cigarettes: Effect on Federal Excise Taxes Collected on Traditional Cigarettes Is Not Currently Evident

US Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) repeats false claims in GAO junk study on e-cigs
The United States Senate Committee on Finance: Newsroom - Ranking Member's News