FDA What happens if/when

[zoiDman]

Or really (really really) the cost of science / scientific credibility, with an inherent bias. Our side has desire for scientific studies, which costs millions of dollars. What? Does a million sound too high? Well, how bout let's just make it tens of thousands of dollars, not itemize what exactly that entails and say it is much less than those who would spend millions.

And what will, or has this science around eCigs provided us? Anything, and I mean anything, beyond what anecdotal conclusions have already reached?

With all this said, I still don't see it as getting rid of 99% or more of the products. And if I did, I would be telling anyone/everyone that black market WILL fill that gap, be lucrative and not be overly concerned with the science.

Once Again, Not Sure where this Reference to "Our Side" wanting Studies that Cost Millions comes from? Are you referring to this?

http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/forum/casaa/606998-bscits-study.html#post14265045

---

Also Not Sure how you say that Science plays No Role in Policy Making? What do you think the Foundation Argument has been in State Polices? That a Bunch of People on the ECF said e-Cigarettes were Hunky Dory?

Seem to Recall CASAA sending Wisconsin Lawmakers Loads of Scientific Data/Studies in the Past Year.

...

Wisconsin bans sales of any nicotine products to minors, but the state’s indoor smoking ban doesn’t apply to e-cigarettes — leaving employers and municipalities to decide if they want to prohibit them.

...

E-cigarette debate heats up in Wisconsin : Wsj

 

[Jman8]

Once Again, Not Sure where this Reference to "Our Side" wanting Studies that Cost Millions comes from?

Didn't say that. When you understand what I said, let me know.

Also Not Sure how you say that Science plays No Role in Policy Making?

Didn't say this. When you understand what I said, let me know.

 

[zoiDman]

Didn't say that. When you understand what I said, let me know.

I Quoted you Directly.

"Our side has desire for scientific studies, which costs millions of dollars. What? Does a million sound too high?"

And then Asked you what you are Referring to?

Didn't say this. When you understand what I said, let me know.

OK... So what were you Trying to Say?

 

[Jman8]

I Quoted you Directly.

"Our side has desire for scientific studies, which costs millions of dollars. What? Does a million sound too high?"

And then Asked you what you are Referring to?

Post #81 does quote me directly, and then misstates what the quote says. So, let me know when you understand what I said.

OK... So what were you Trying to Say?

Wasn't trying to say something, I did say something. You spun it another way and are now playing catch up.

 

[zoiDman]

Post #81 does quote me directly, and then misstates what the quote says. So, let me know when you understand what I said.




Wasn't trying to say something, I did say something. You spun it another way and are now playing catch up.

I think you are just Dodging Questions.

 

[Jman8]

I think you are just Dodging Questions.

Try asking a legitimate question, and we'll see.

 

[zoiDman]

Try asking a legitimate question, and we'll see.

OK... What were you referring to when you posted this ?...

Or really (really really) the cost of science / scientific credibility, with an inherent bias. Our side has desire for scientific studies, which costs millions of dollars. What? Does a million sound too high? Well, how bout let's just make it tens of thousands of dollars, not itemize what exactly that entails and say it is much less than those who would spend millions.

...

 

[Jman8]

OK... What were you referring to when you posted this ?...

Every scientific study relating to eCigarettes that reaches conclusions that vaping enthusiasts find somewhere between neutral or favorable.

The cost of doing scientific studies is:

a) between tens of thousands of dollars and millions
b) not itemized, explained to public why it costs what it did (thus a hidden cost, IMO)
c) what will lead to de facto ban as not every vendor / manufacturer of ecig products will be able to fund such studies, especially if actual costs are not known

So, scientific credibility, which the FDA is after, is what will plausibly bankrupt some vendors, and get them out of the market. I predict that all sorts of vendors will survive this regulated market, but it will be considerably less than the 100% that exists now and considerably more than the 1% that doomsayers predict. There are vaping consumers who very much want regulation / scientific credibility. And apparently some of those don't seem to realize that by insisting on this, they do so in a world where ANTZ has both political and academic power to manipulate how the general public will view 'scientific credibility.'Political aware vapers realize that ANTZ are very much manipulating scientific credibility and are often speaking out against this. I think that will matter going forward, and is why I think it will be considerably more than 1% that survive.

 

[Antwoord]

The reason DC2 and a lot of other CASAA members say we are doomed is because there were only five thousand comments to the FDA regarding deeming regulations. There should have been millions. It was a huge opportunity for regular people to actually impact our own government, and 5k comments means practically nothing.

They say that big 'whatever' is behind this because they are. Big Pharma stands to lose money, big tobacco stands to gain it at this point. The only hope that we have is for a lot of people to follow instructions provided by CASAA or some other vaping advocacy organization because the general public is not capable of speaking for themselves in a coherent and legally recognizable manner.

You are correctly interpreting the psychology of those who try to help the general public. "We are doomed! Oh wait, I just worked my ... off to provide you with another way that we can try and protect your right to be a human being! Oh, only 5k comments. We are doomed."

 

[zoiDman]

Every scientific study relating to eCigarettes that reaches conclusions that vaping enthusiasts find somewhere between neutral or favorable.

The cost of doing scientific studies is:

a) between tens of thousands of dollars and millions
b) not itemized, explained to public why it costs what it did (thus a hidden cost, IMO)
c) what will lead to de facto ban as not every vendor / manufacturer of eCig products will be able to fund such studies, especially if actual costs are not known

So, scientific credibility, which the FDA is after, is what will plausibly bankrupt some vendors, and get them out of the market. I predict that all sorts of vendors will survive this regulated market, but it will be considerably less than the 100% that exists now and considerably more than the 1% that doomsayers predict. There are vaping consumers who very much want regulation / scientific credibility. And apparently some of those don't seem to realize that by insisting on this, they do so in a world where ANTZ has both political and academic power to manipulate how the general public will view 'scientific credibility.'Political aware vapers realize that ANTZ are very much manipulating scientific credibility and are often speaking out against this. I think that will matter going forward, and is why I think it will be considerably more than 1% that survive.

OK. Not saying I'm buying onto All that you are Saying. But at least you are being Clearer than Before. Care to Narrow down your Prediction of between Considerably Less than 100% and Considerably More than 1%?

Not Trying to hold you to Anything. Just trying to get a Feel for what Percentage of vendors You Think will go Bye-Bye from the Coming Regulations.

 

[PuffTheMagicKanthal]

I just typed out a long winded reply detailing what I meant on this touchscreen only to hit delete by mistake. Arrrggghhh. Basically tl; dr:

I meant people who have never vaped before, know NOTHING, absolutely nothing about vaping, so their first experience is ejuice in their mouth or burnt silicone insulators are not going to be "determined" to vape, because their ONLY experience thus far is just that. If you gave me, say, a fake ibuprofen for a hanging headache, having never tried ibuprofen before, and it didn't work for my headache, I doubt I will go out of my way to stop, say taking prescription pain killers to use Ibuprofen any more.

And sometimes even legit tanks/etc leak -- liquid + gravity = sometimes it leaks.

I have genuine Kanger T3S tanks; if they're not wicked just right, they leak. Yeah, they're cheap, so that's probably why, not that they're knock-offs. Same for my genuine Mini Protank II's, though they're somewhat less cheap.

I have genuine Smoktech cartos... and the entire last batch I bought of 'em has leaked -- not much, not enough to make a huge mess or anything, but enough that I have to take the tank off the Vamo now and then (more often than I need to refill it) and swab the battery post so it doesn't build up and a) cause gurgling, and/or b) leak down into the battery compartment.

The only tanks I've got that don't *usually* leak are clones, so some might consider them knock-offs; Tobeco KFL+. But they don't try to present themselves as being "actual kayfuns" -- they don't have that lying text on the bottom about being designed in Russia, made in Germany, and they come in a box on which "Tobeco" is prominently and proudly displayed, and I can understand Tobeco wanting to take credit for them, because they're excellent products. And notice above, I said they don't *usually* leak -- but if I over-prime the wick, then I have to blow out the excess before it vapes worth a flip; and if I go from dry 75 degree air conditioning out to humid 95 degree summer heat, sometimes they leak just a smidge, because of changing air-pressure conditions.

People who quit vaping because their tanks leaked, IMO, didn't really want to quit smoking in the first place, or they would have persevered and found something that didn't leak, or didn't leak *as much* -- because liquid, in gravity, is generally always going to seek to go lower, and if it can find a place, it's going to leak. People who actually do want to vape instead of smoke, will find a way to make it work. Even if it leaks.

Andria

 

[Jman8]

OK. Not saying I'm buying onto All that you are Saying. But at least you are being Clearer than Before. Care to Narrow down your Prediction of between Considerably Less than 100% and Considerably More than 1%?

Not Trying to hold you to Anything. Just trying to get a Feel for what Percentage of vendors You Think will go Bye-Bye from the Coming Regulations.

Given the way regulations are written right now and given allowance that states won't be harsh (i.e. harsher than what FDA current regulations have put forth), I would say 50% to 75% will survive. Not forever, but there are other factors at work besides FDA, such as the whole cloning issue, the general state of the economy and technological innovations that could make certain products, namely devices, obsolete.

Now, I do think FDA will move on flavors, but the current proposed regulations don't say that they will. Zeller has, I believe, said he'd like to and FSPTCA brings this up (with regards to combustible tobacco). I've met people who buy into the notion that the only reason certain flavors exist (i.e. candy flavors) is for the vaping industry to get kids hooked on their products. So, I think it'll be a very big issue, but will result from additional proposed regulations. I also think it will impact the market greatly, but after awhile (like a decade, maybe less), the movement will reverse itself and flavors won't be a big issue, and companies will re-enter the market.

I also think certain progressive states (such as NY, CA and IL) will move in harsher direction than whatever FDA may do in the next 3 years. And as that is already occurring, it sets a precedent that allows other jurisdictions to at least consider that as an option. So, regardless of what FDA is up to or may be up to, the regulation train is coming and/or already entered the station.

Still, with how high demand is, I think it is utterly foolish for any jurisdiction to go extreme on regulations. I think a black market will undoubtedly be created to fill the high demand and it'll behave in all the ways that regulators despise. I think us who are paying attention will (fully) realize that the regulators are the ones responsible for creating that type of market.

But, I also see hope in court battles. That is a huge wildcard that could swing things dramatically in favor of the pro-vaping side of things as it did in 2009. Such rulings would set FDA back a few years, or longer, and likely swing public sentiment. But is such a wildcard, IMO, that it is tough to bank on this going our way.

Part of my optimism has to do with us mobilizing. I don't see it as 'we are more powerful than them,' but as a factor that can't be denied and does have momentum. I think building on that momentum is important with a "we got this" type of attitude. The doomsaying approach doesn't personally motivate me, and instead I think it detracts from our momentum. Makes it seem, routinely, as if we are powerless in the face of 'big whatever.'

 

[PuffTheMagicKanthal]

Well since clarifying thru this thread and realize the serious potential jeopardizing freedom to our vaping I have decided to start stocking up on nicotine. And will now try and reduce my nic level gradually while we have this window.

Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk

 

[Tangaroav]

Well since clarifying thru this thread and realize the serious potential jeopardizing freedom to our vaping I have decided to start stocking up on nicotine. And will now try and reduce my nic level gradually while we have this window.

Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk

.... same here, I have been keeping a one year supply of 100mg/ml nic base. I will increase it to a two year supply before the S**t hit the fan.

 

[AndriaD]

Still, with how high demand is, I think it is utterly foolish for any jurisdiction to go extreme on regulations. I think a black market will undoubtedly be created to fill the high demand and it'll behave in all the ways that regulators despise. I think us who are paying attention will (fully) realize that the regulators are the ones responsible for creating that type of market.

But, I also see hope in court battles. That is a huge wildcard that could swing things dramatically in favor of the pro-vaping side of things as it did in 2009. Such rulings would set FDA back a few years, or longer, and likely swing public sentiment. But is such a wildcard, IMO, that it is tough to bank on this going our way.

Part of my optimism has to do with us mobilizing. I don't see it as 'we are more powerful than them,' but as a factor that can't be denied and does have momentum. I think building on that momentum is important with a "we got this" type of attitude. The doomsaying approach doesn't personally motivate me, and instead I think it detracts from our momentum. Makes it seem, routinely, as if we are powerless in the face of 'big whatever.'

Agreed, agreed, agreed with a bullet. If I didn't think there was any point at all in us making ourselves heard, I wouldn't even bother, and I'd be making far more stringent efforts to stockpile. As it is, I'm stockpiling a little nicotine primarily because I'm afraid that liquid nicotine may become wildly expensive after "regulations", and because I'm afraid that I won't be able to get flavored ejuice with nicotine. I'm stockpiling hardware to some extent, primarily rebuildable attys and mechanical mods, just in case the FDA goes completely nuts and hands the whole industry to BT with their "open container ban." I'm also doing all that I can to "make a big noise," via Twitter, FB, my own website, and letters as appropriate, because I don't want to be one of those whining about evil ANTZ but doing nothing at all to actually further our cause. But I'm pragmatic about that, realizing that the ambitions of most of those who might actually help us are actually pretty far removed from the "e-cigs or no e-cigs" debate (or debacle, as the case may be) -- we are pretty small potatoes to them.

I see a lot of hope in coming years in those court battles; the main problem with them is that a) they take FOREVER, and b) they cost a mint, and our opponents are far better capitalized for that sort of thing than vapers are. Just to get legal representation for such an endeavor will probably require some attorneys who are themselves committed vapers, who are willing to forego their usual fees just to "get something done" about such a wildly unjust state of affairs.

But I completely agree that the final resolution will be neither "doom and gloom" nor "happy smiley face;" I'm reasonably certain that it will end up somewhere between the 2 extremes -- because that's just how politics works.

Andria

 

[vap0riz3]

I would stock up on whatever you need because my business partner works with a bio-chemist who works directly with the FDA and he claims the slap down is coming in 2015 for sure, regardless of who protests the regulations.

 

[Jman8]

Black market operators are stocking up for sure.

 

[AndriaD]

Black market operators are stocking up for sure.

Oh GOOD!!!

Andria

 

[DC2]

Black market?

What percentage of the vaping population wants to risk that?
Furthermore, what percentage of the POTENTIAL vaping population wants to risk that?

Sure, there are those that don't care if their e-liquid has been scrutinized by the vaping world.
And there are those that don't mind risking a small chance of arrest.

So yeah, it's nice to know that we can always count on that for our future needs.

 

[zoiDman]

Black market?

What percentage of the vaping population wants to risk that?
Furthermore, what percentage of the POTENTIAL vaping population wants to risk that?

Sure, there are those that don't care if their e-liquid has been scrutinized by the vaping world.
And there are those that don't mind risking a small chance of arrest.

So yeah, it's nice to know that we can always count on that for our future needs.

I have Mentioned this Before. But it is Kinda a Dead End Street.

Because it seems if the Black Market is a Viable Alternative for a VERY Small Percentage of ALL e-Cigarettes Users, then Some will Argue that We have Nothing to Worry about.

BTW - Have you been following what is Going On in New York with Flavored e-Liquids?