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I would bet that prices will skyrocket on the few items still allowed to be sold for a year. Glad I don't have to worry about it.
I think our governments would happily ignore a 100% increase in smoking in teens. The teachers unions would not strike, the parents would not be informed, and the homeless would be given tokens for purchasing underage teens cigarettes. These tokens could be redeemed by the government for the illegal item of their choice.
Ahem, pardon. I am a bit jaded. You are right. EVERYONE would freak out if there was a sharp spike in teen OR adult smoking and well, there would be much wringing of hands and government entities saying, "You know, ECF was right."
If you did not self-inform and find a way to stock up, I am going to agree there may have been a component of voluntary self-destruction yes. You can see the folks who really prepared, and it's usually the folks who have REACHED death's door with cigarettes. Etc.
I CANNOT go back to smoking it is not an option for me. Nor do I have any desire to most of the time.
Anna
Ahem, pardon. I am a bit jaded. You are right. EVERYONE would freak out if there was a sharp spike in teen OR adult smoking and well, there would be much wringing of hands and government entities saying, "You know, ECF was right."
If you did not self-inform and find a way to stock up, I am going to agree there may have been a component of voluntary self-destruction yes. You can see the folks who really prepared, and it's usually the folks who have REACHED death's door with cigarettes. Etc.
I CANNOT go back to smoking it is not an option for me. Nor do I have any desire to most of the time.
Anna
It's a federal tax.
This was the initial draft.
https://waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrats.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/documents/HR 4742 AS INTRODUCED.pdf
‘‘(h) NICOTINE.—On taxable nicotine, manufactured in or imported into the United States, there shall be imposed a tax equal to the dollar amount specified in section 5701(b)(1) (or, if greater, $50.33) per 1,810 milligrams of nicotine (and a proportionate tax at the like rate on any fractional part thereof).’’.
That comes out to $2,780 tax per liter of 100mg/ml nic base
HR 4742 was clumped into another bill in I think February 2020, which was not passed by the house. EDIT: May bad, yes, it did pass the house. Thanks @Territoo.
Trump admin said it would veto it if it ever did get passed by congress, but that means very little because not only is talk cheap but they will just stick it into another bill which the Trump admin won't likely veto.
Clown world tactics.
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Companies are already planning to shut down or have shut down.
As the year progresses, more will follow and the major exodus will happen as the FDA grace period expires in Sept 2021.
Enforcement is another wholly unpredictable concern.
I would think on-line companies would be targeted first with the B&M shops that survive being subject to increased local and federal restrictions. (Tax stamps and certified, consolidated distributors products only)
Ordering and importing from overseas for personal use may be "unenforced", but large shipments for business purposes will certainly draw attention.
If the CBD market becomes subject to regulation, many of the loopholes that cover hardware will close.
Cheers
I
ETA: TRLM-NG
If your local is not listed, expect it to close.
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Well, I'd hope that we're all wise enough to get whatever it is while we can.
It doesn't matter what we vape, just that we vape.
We are, and may be for a bit of time still, the lucky "few".
It's HB 32 which is sitting on Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's desk along with hundreds of other bills. If it stays there until January, it's DOA. Congress would have to start over. If the Senate should pass it, then Trump still has to sign it. He has indicated he would veto it, but YNK. The states are whole nuther story. They can do what they want irregardless of the Feds.
I consulted my magic 8 ball on this, and it said, "What do you think I am, a time machine?"
It's not necessarily the large companies or small ones, it's what the FDA decides to approve. There have been a few limited PTMAs for flavoring but your selections will be somewhat limited at best.
I don't think the FDA has banned flavorless base, but there is a bill to tax it to hell and beyond coming up. That should do the trick nicely, between the PTMAs and the nicotine tax, eliquid should cost about 1:1 with gold.
If you want security go the whole hog and buy some nicotine, PG and VG and mix your own base. It stores well in glass in the freezer, etc.
Anna
It's not necessarily the large companies or small ones, it's what the FDA decides to approve. There have been a few limited PTMAs for flavoring but your selections will be somewhat limited at best.
I don't think the FDA has banned flavorless base, but there is a bill to tax it to hell and beyond coming up. That should do the trick nicely, between the PTMAs and the nicotine tax, eliquid should cost about 1:1 with gold.
If you want security go the whole hog and buy some nicotine, PG and VG and mix your own base. It stores well in glass in the freezer, etc.
Anna
More likely go back to smoking which is what tax starved states are probably hoping for on some level.
If you haven't already, stock up on nicotine. You will always be able to get VG/PG and flavors. Make sure you have plenty of RBA's, regulated and mech mods. You likely know that already.
Making your own flavorless is easy. Pour your preferred VG/PG ratio and add nic, done and ready.
No one knows for sure which companies will survive the PMTA process. It is a very safe bet that BT's offerings will be ok. Beyond that, who knows?
I know everyone thinks I overstate the black market issue and with vaping it will be fine.... And it probably will be at first, until CERTAIN UNSAVORY persons are gonna step in with black market vapes and it's going to get ugly. It just will. Not for everyone but for some. The government is going to eventually want to slam the hammer, this is just the a "gentle leisurely" preparation.
Governments, much like the entertainment industry, only tolerate black markets that benefit THEM: i.e. the wide eyed youth that show up as interns, and wind up with handbag companies only it was NOT the easiest road to become a "handbag designer" and sometimes, the number of "notorious" handbag designers make me think there is a "handbag designer" slush fund which quietly sets them up on a reasonable income in return for shutting up. I really do.
If I have learned one thing about Americans in particular if they have something they want to do very much, they will risk a TON to achieve it. Then things SUCK. I don't want to be arrested by an undercover DEA agent trying to sell me a Teslacigs vape. One, I'm sure it would carry jailtime and 2) I would be so ashamed of myself for not spotting it.
I certainly would not meekly put down my vapes for like, nicotine gum, nay SNUS even. It's fine at work usually. But not vaping with my morning cup of coffee or in the evenings? It would be HARD. I guess I could really snus it up but I would NOT be happy.
I do think there will be vapers who will be sad and sorry and while it may SEEM there may be enough gear and nic stockpiled for all vapers in the US but there just actually ISN'T.
Let alone our public liberties. I wonder if this is what all the (now less) bitter 60s folks when the government declaimed much of their lifestyle ILLEGAL.
I bet they were annoyed. With ETOH, it was easier to repeal. Also when you have your primary substance calling to you (smoking) it can be easy to go back to smoking and blame the government.
I don't know much that can stop politicians for going after a "sin" repeal of products so I blame NO ONE other than our officials, whether I voted for them or not.
Because everyone knew.... but who really knew? I mean, I figured the USA would lean puritanical but they did not HAVE to and they had other options.
Anna
Governments, much like the entertainment industry, only tolerate black markets that benefit THEM: i.e. the wide eyed youth that show up as interns, and wind up with handbag companies only it was NOT the easiest road to become a "handbag designer" and sometimes, the number of "notorious" handbag designers make me think there is a "handbag designer" slush fund which quietly sets them up on a reasonable income in return for shutting up. I really do.
If I have learned one thing about Americans in particular if they have something they want to do very much, they will risk a TON to achieve it. Then things SUCK. I don't want to be arrested by an undercover DEA agent trying to sell me a Teslacigs vape. One, I'm sure it would carry jailtime and 2) I would be so ashamed of myself for not spotting it.
I certainly would not meekly put down my vapes for like, nicotine gum, nay SNUS even. It's fine at work usually. But not vaping with my morning cup of coffee or in the evenings? It would be HARD. I guess I could really snus it up but I would NOT be happy.
I do think there will be vapers who will be sad and sorry and while it may SEEM there may be enough gear and nic stockpiled for all vapers in the US but there just actually ISN'T.
Let alone our public liberties. I wonder if this is what all the (now less) bitter 60s folks when the government declaimed much of their lifestyle ILLEGAL.
I bet they were annoyed. With ETOH, it was easier to repeal. Also when you have your primary substance calling to you (smoking) it can be easy to go back to smoking and blame the government.
I don't know much that can stop politicians for going after a "sin" repeal of products so I blame NO ONE other than our officials, whether I voted for them or not.
Because everyone knew.... but who really knew? I mean, I figured the USA would lean puritanical but they did not HAVE to and they had other options.
Anna
There have been quite a few online stores that have closed shop recently as a direct result of Deeming. Virgin Vapor will stop selling juices that are not included in their PMTA's in the next day or two.
I perceive there are plenty of people who miss their cigarettes and happy for an excuse to go back to smoking. May be there will be a big spike in adult and kid smoking when enough shops are closed that will be hard to ignore.
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