Our view is that there will be nothing left on the market other than a few types of "cigAlikes."
And I'm willing to wager with those who hold this view. Thus far, no takers. Wonder why that is?
Belief 1: The FDA's proposed rule may be challenged in court, prior to any action undertaken against a specific manufacturer, just as it was in Soterra. So this proposed rule can be stopped long before the two year "window" closes.
I do not believe this, and so doesn't impact my positive outlook on future of vaping.
Belief 2: The FDA is simply putting foward a framework for negotiation and discussion. If we vapers get together, then organizations that represent us and/or the vaping industry can sit down with the FDA and offer them a series of "compromises," that may result in the FDA drafting a different proposed rule.
I do not believe this. The proposed rules are established as proposed. Comments can shape what final rules will go into effect.
Belief 3: There are products available prior to Feb '07 which are "substantially equivalent" to products available now, such as unflavored nicotine base.
I do not believe this and do believe it is all "market applications" from this point forward for those who wish to be in compliance with the FDA. I believe, strongly, that not all businesses / distributors, starting now, will seek compliance with the FDA. I believe many will and believe more than BT and cigalikes will be approved.
Belief 4: Products introduced prior to the end of the 2-year window after the rule become final will be "grandparented," and not require approval.
I do believe this, but doesn't matter really. If you want a product to be legally sold, and compliant with FDA, you will get it approved. Many will not seek FDA compliance.
Belief 5: As long as an application is submitted within the two-year window after the rule becomes final, the FDA will allow the product to remain on the market until the application is reviewed, which might take many years, given the history of tobacco cigarette applications and the number of applications submitted prior to that application.
I believe this, but also doesn't matter. You're saying "might" take many years. I think that is arguably true. It might not. Would be great if it does. Would be par for the course on FDA processing. But if things go swiftly, it would be better, IMO, for those who don't see the sky falling, and who would be on winning side of wager I've put forth.
Belief 6: The costs of an application might be as little as a few thousand dollars, or perhaps a few tens of thousands of dollars.
I believe this, and realize jury is still out on this one. I kinda hope it goes up to a billion dollars per application (but not really). Will make winning the bet a little bit easier.
Belief 7: The FDA is going to establish an approval process for small businesses which is less burdensome than that required for larger ones in terms of the required studies and product analysis.
I believe this, but realize there's no way to offer proof for this at this point. I kinda hope it excludes small businesses with an iron fist (but not really). Will make winning the bet much easier.
Belief 8: The economic costs of closing down thousands of B&M vape stores and online distributors will be a factor in convincing elected representatives to put pressure on the FDA to revise the proposed rules.
You call this doubtful, I call this likely. Same thing I was saying above. Let 'em go this heavy handed way. Will guarantee I win the bet.
Belief 9: There will be one approval process for each flavor of e-liquid, which can then be used by other manufacturers.
It is almost tempting to bet on this point alone. Especially with your "false" ruling. But you got just enough tagged on the end to make it a questionable wager. I believe it'll be one flavor (at all nic strengths) per application. I believe many will pass, and it'll be similar process for other manufacturers, as if they helped each other. I believe it's possible FDA rejects all flavors for eCigs. Again, will make winning the bet much easier.
Belief 10: Hardware (vaping equipment) is not affected, so long as it doesn't contain nicotine, and/or isn't sold with nicotine as part of a "kit."
This one I am willing to bet on, on its own. My only stipulation is distributor doesn't have to advertise product as "for vaping" for it to be 'not affected.' This one is partially why I'm confident I'll win the larger bet.
Belief 11: There will be one approval process for each type of hardware. For example, "clones" of certain APVs, mech mods, RDAs, etc. can come into the market, once the originals are approved.
On the contrary. Clones are another reason why I feel confident to win the bet. Clones won't seek FDA compliance. Why should they?
Belief 12: A group of manufacturers can submit an application for high-strength e-liquid "base," which would then be used by the customer to create various flavorings. By pooling their resources, this consortium would have have the economic ability to satify the application standards and pursue any needed post-rejection litigation.
I believe this is plausible. Would ultimately favor FDA. Either way, winning the bet is still intact.
Belief 13: Certain high-quality mech mods, RDAs and so forth will last forever with proper care.
Oh, I would say much longer than forever. This is one I'd bet on. At the end of forever, or much longer than forever, if they do not last, I'll be sure to pay up.
Belief 14: The FDA can't possibly stop foriegn internet sellers from making e-liquid and/or vaping hardware available to American consumers.
Who says this? Of course the FDA can stop all foreign sellers from all forms of business. They have magical powers, and undeniable ability to make everyone everywhere comply with their will. Underground market and foreign sellers don't stand a chance against the FDA.
IOW, bet will be easy to win for those who think this believe is 'doubtful.'
Belief 15: There is no way that the FDA can successfully keep vapers from accessing nicotine and/or vaping equipment on the black market. Besides, all federal agencies are prohibited from drafting regulations that create black markets.
Hard to evaluate
Many existing prescription drugs are sold on the black market. As with all black markets, any given person's experience will likely vary from that of others'.
Had to keep your answer on this one public.
Your "hard to evaluate" makes you an "easy target for my bet."
Really easy.